CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving • Hacker News Board

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#241

Post by seoaeu » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 3:07 PM UTC

bombcar wrote: post #188

anyfoo wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is so, so much easier to have a computer land a plane than to travel through a road infrastructure made for humans. There are no roads, no obstacles, usually not even other planes constraining your plane for any autopilot situation. With autolanding, "other planes" might start becoming an issue, but it's still a vastly different level from the momentary and immediate coordination necessary between cars on public r…

Autoland is impressive but it really is more equivalent to a system (in a car) that automatically applies the brakes than to a full self driving system. Autopilot is simple and a solved problem. Self driving is not either.

I'd very much not want to be in an airplane whose landing strategy was "automatically apply the brakes". Navigating to an airport, lining up with the runway, and gently bringing down the plane seems significantly harder than auto-breaking.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#242

Post by muskrat_wire » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 3:24 PM UTC

iJohnDoe wrote: post #106

ChuckMcM wrote: post #102

Having read hundreds of these sorts of CEO leaving letters I'm a bit jaded and cynical. If you're interested in what I see when I read that message, I rewrote it[1] in more plain language. Google demands a lot of its "other bets" companies. Some might say it asks too much. Mostly it seems to me that they want a 'moonshot' company that has the original profitability of search advertising, full stop. And while it would…

Your rewrite was extremely well done. It’s too bad CEOs don’t write their PR like you have done. Like when they drive companies into the ground, lay everyone off, and then they exit with millions.

that's capitalism

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#243

Post by craftinator » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 4:40 PM UTC

endisneigh wrote: post #220

craftinator wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you forget what you originally wrote? You said: > Do you have an example of something humans did that could kill them that was automated completely that still can kill them, but generally does not anymore? And I pointed out that the parent comment had already provided an example. Now you are arguing with me that the example given, about Garmin Autoland, isn't comparable to self-driving... Which isn't at all the e…

> Do you have an example of something humans did that could kill them that was automated completely that still can kill them, but generally does not anymore? My understanding from looking at research is that airplanes by experienced pilots rarely killed people... and they... still don't even when (partially) automated? There doesn't appear to be definitive evidence that autopilot is safer [2] as many of the innovatio…

You wrote:

> The Garmin Autoland is not equivalent to full self driving?

This has nothing to do with your argument criteria of:

> Do you have an example of something humans did that could kill them that was automated completely that still can kill them, but generally does not anymore?

> Try not to be so condescending, sheesh.

I didn't mean that to be condescending out of turn, but if you are going to engage in an argument by posting a strong disagreement and an opinion:

> I strongly disagree. Most machines are not capable of killing you because it makes a mistake.

You cannot change the criteria for an example that you asked for simply because you don't feel like arguing that the example did or did not meet your criteria, nor can you do so simply because you didn't bother to read it carefully.

So no, I'm not being condescending out of turn, you really needed some correction on that. Sheesh.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#244

Post by omarforgotpwd » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 11:30 PM UTC

joefourier wrote: post #50

Some comments are saying self-driving cars are not currently possible and that Waymo isn't successful, but aren't they currently available to the public in some areas in Phoenix, with no safety drivers? There may be many limitations, but self-driving in sunny flat suburban areas would already cover a decent portion of the American market. Sure they might not be ready for chaotic, busy city centres or regions with har…

Chandler, not Phoenix. Went over to try the cars recently. They sometimes drop you off or pick you up from a different location than you wanted if they can't get to the location you provided.

If they actually launched in Phoenix that would be encouraging. Instead they're stuck in the suburbs.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#245

Post by komocode » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 11:47 PM UTC

endisneigh wrote: post #6

That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…

The metric to beat isn't "is self driving dangerous, yes or no?"

The metric to beat is "is self driving on average substantially safer than human driving?". Once you beat that metric, it would be insane not to allow self driving. This won't take 100 years.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#246

Post by oldgradstudent » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 8:04 AM UTC

thomasikzelf wrote: post #93

joefourier wrote: post #50

Some comments are saying self-driving cars are not currently possible and that Waymo isn't successful, but aren't they currently available to the public in some areas in Phoenix, with no safety drivers? There may be many limitations, but self-driving in sunny flat suburban areas would already cover a decent portion of the American market. Sure they might not be ready for chaotic, busy city centres or regions with har…

More context on the -no safety driver- issue. "Eliminating the safety driver is an important step toward making Waymo's service profitable. But it may not be enough on its own because Waymo says the cars still have remote overseers. These Waymo staffers never steer the vehicles directly, but they do send high-level instructions to help vehicles get out of tricky situations. For example, a Waymo spokeswoman told me, "…

The language seems to be chosen very carefully.

They say that they don't do one very specific thing, and they give one very specific example of something they do. Leaving it open to interpretation.

I'll remain very skeptical about their no safety driver claims.

We'll probably have to wait until the first fatality or serious injury to know in certain. The lawsuits and police/NTSB investigations will expose a lot of the inner workings.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#247

Post by oldgradstudent » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 8:05 AM UTC

wetpaws wrote: post #230

layoutIfNeeded wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Self driving is not possible without changes to infrastructure Humans seem to be perfectly capable of doing it though.

Humans are probably the single worst possible candidate for handling a car

Except for all the other options.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#248

Post by mlyle » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 3:07 PM UTC

oldgradstudent wrote: post #246

thomasikzelf wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More context on the -no safety driver- issue. "Eliminating the safety driver is an important step toward making Waymo's service profitable. But it may not be enough on its own because Waymo says the cars still have remote overseers. These Waymo staffers never steer the vehicles directly, but they do send high-level instructions to help vehicles get out of tricky situations. For example, a Waymo spokeswoman told me, "…

The language seems to be chosen very carefully. They say that they don't do one very specific thing, and they give one very specific example of something they do. Leaving it open to interpretation. I'll remain very skeptical about their no safety driver claims. We'll probably have to wait until the first fatality or serious injury to know in certain. The lawsuits and police/NTSB investigations will expose a lot of th…

Every case of remote assistance I've seen in Waymo videos tends to look like this:

https://youtu.be/D1sZnbORfAE?t=830

Stuck in a parking lot, with an unexpected massive obstacle (Christmas tree display) blocking the "road". "RAD MONITORING" shows up on passenger screen. Objects get labelled and vehicle starts making progress.

It seems to be happening a lot less in recent videos.