Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades • Hacker News Board

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#401

Post by mtmmtm » Sun, Apr 04, 2021, 8:18 PM UTC

cbmuser wrote: post #343

hristov wrote: post #71

This is important to keep in mind when you read articles and/or studies about how electric cars or wind or solar power is impractical. A lot of the data these studies use is just obsolete. Say you have an opinion piece in a news paper that says that electric cars will always be expensive toys for the rich. It relies on a scientific paper published in a technical journal 2 years ago. The scientific paper does not perf…

> This is important to keep in mind when you read articles and/or studies about how electric cars or wind or solar power is impractical. A lot of the data these studies use is just obsolete. Solar power and electric cars aren’t impractical because of the price tag of the technology but because of their fundamental properties. Solar power cannot produce electricity on demand which is why solar (and wind parks) can nev…

Solar and wind-power can compete very efficiently in a free market. They actually outperform all other forms of energy-production (it is the cheapest way to produce energy). Also every year they get much cheaper. I would recommend this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PM2RxWtF4Ds

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#402

Post by clairity » Sun, Apr 04, 2021, 8:21 PM UTC

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #78

hristov wrote: post #71

This is important to keep in mind when you read articles and/or studies about how electric cars or wind or solar power is impractical. A lot of the data these studies use is just obsolete. Say you have an opinion piece in a news paper that says that electric cars will always be expensive toys for the rich. It relies on a scientific paper published in a technical journal 2 years ago. The scientific paper does not perf…

Yes, using obsolete data from when tech was bleeding edge in 1999 to imply things about cost going forward is misleading. On the other hand using improvement over the same timeline, drawing a line on a graph and saying "look how X Y is gonna be in Z years" is the same exact type of stupid but pointed in a different direction. In 1991 lithium was highly immature technology and would take about a decade to make it into…

that's a learning or experience curve[0]. related is the technology adoption curve, characterized for instance by the bass diffusion model[1].

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bass_diffusion_model

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#403

Post by JeffL » Sun, Apr 04, 2021, 9:07 PM UTC

benzor wrote: post #340

JeffL wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes it's a misconception. Their profit margin on cars is consistently over 20%. They have large overhead costs that are more or less fixed like R&D that get amortized more and more as sales go up. They have massive net free cash flow every quarter even while building out new factories that will increase production capacity by 50% every year for the next several years, further increasing economies of scale and operati…

You and GP are arguing two different things and are both right. GP's claim is that Tesla would not be profitable without regulatory credit sales: this is true. Tesla's profit for 2020 is $721M and its credit sales for 2020 are $1.58B, just over double. It's fair to say that, were those credit sales to fall to zero, Tesla risks losing its profitable status. Here we're effectively discussing net profit margin for the c…

He said the more cars they sell, the more money they would lose without credits, which is a misconception.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#404

Post by sjwright » Sun, Apr 04, 2021, 9:44 PM UTC

sgt wrote: post #400

sjwright wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remarkable. I’m in Sydney, my house sounds similar by description but I have gas hot water and stovetop. My house uses over 5 kWh/day for ambient/idle power alone.

That's impressive. What's your usage pattern like? I mean, in our house there's regular use of washing machine, tumble dryer, dishwasher, TV's, swimming pool pump. Heck even the swimming pool takes a couple of kWh a day! Would be curious on how to live so frugally.

Sorry if I was unclear. 5 kWh/day of idle. That’s how much it uses when we’re literally not home and all I’ve left on is the networking gear, appliances on standby, etc.

My average actual occupied usage is closer to 20-25 kWh/day, varying mainly by AC load.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#405

Post by CyberDildonics » Sun, Apr 04, 2021, 10:33 PM UTC

PeterisP wrote: post #127

CyberDildonics wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ever heard of a refrigerators and freezers?

A decent refrigerator should consume less than a kWh per day, perhaps 1.5 kWh/day for refrigerator + standalone freezer - this is something that has changed over the last couple decades, at least in the EU there has been a strong push towards more efficient appliances and refrigerators consume much less power than older models.

This does not make it more likely that someone is stealing their electricity than they have a refrigerator and/or freezer making up the rest of their unspoken for electrical bill.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#406

Post by reitzensteinm » Sun, Apr 04, 2021, 10:51 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #135

baybal2 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Say you have an opinion piece in a news paper that says that electric cars will always be expensive toys for the rich. Well, you don't see poor people buying EVs that much. That's car manufacturer statistics, which I believe deserves a good degree of trust. In the market for new cars, poor people buy cheapest IC cars, but not cheapest EVs. I will take the point that middle class is now buying budget EVs, but you do…

US manufacturers still see EVs as a premium option. Batteries are getting cheap, but it's not showing up in vehicle prices. Jeep has backed off, yet again, from producing an all-electric Jeep Wrangler. They originally announced one for 2020. Then 2021. Then 2022. They shipped some "mild hybrid" things. They just showed an all-electric Jeep Wrangler, but it's a "concept car" only. And, for some reason, has a 6-speed m…

The Mach-E starts at $43k.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#407

Post by ClumsyPilot » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 12:05 AM UTC

iagovar wrote: post #113

WebDanube wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a free market apologist by any means, but we also didn't see "poor people" or folks in the lower economic strata buy mobile devices and smartphones when they became first available, at least not the scale we're seeing now (without mentioning the fact that the devices were crazy expensive when first launched, adjusting for inflation). Economy of scale is a thing, and imo it's OK to use the rich and the wealthy…

An expensive phone is about 500-1000€. A cheap EV is in the 20K neighborhood, and the functionality is pretty bad compared to a cheap second-hand utility car (pretty hard to travel outside your city). Even when regulations push prices up, it's still far more economical to buy a cheap gas car than a cheap EV. Even in Europe there are plenty of countries where many people can't afford an EV. They can afford second-hand…

"because nobody will pay for a charger installation in a rented flat"

Where did you get this idea? People pay for an AC, a conciege, a cycle room, a roof terrace, a fucking gardener but they wont pay for a charging point? Also why does it have to be rented?

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#408

Post by ClumsyPilot » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 12:10 AM UTC

xyzzy21 wrote: post #107

noahtallen wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s still a large difference between upper-middle class and upper class. I think many middle class jobs can support owning a Tesla Model 3 or other mid-range new car but not a Porsche. When I hear “expensive toy for the rich”, I think of a millionaire’s 3rd lambo, not Bill’s Silverado lease. Initial Teslas were sports cars, and now it’s squarely in middle class territory. Still a big improvement and a big market,…

Not when I can buy an ICE and operate for cheaper - note the nearest "charge station" to me is 30+ miles away and then the next nearest is 100+ miles beyond that. The drop in diesel and gasoline prices recently only cements the value of an ICE vehicle.

Thats not how people buy cars.

People buy BMW but they are not the most cost-efficient cars. People buy cars in London , using public transport is cheaper. Cars are prestiege, a point of pride, 'Freedom', an obsession, a place to have sex, and more to all kinds of people.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#409

Post by AtlasBarfed » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 2:02 AM UTC

The thought exercise I most would like the answer to is: how much of this (that is batteries and solar/wind) could have been advanced in the 50s and 60s if the petrol companies weren't, uh, redirecting investment. Was the transistor or imaging or key materials engineering needed to enable modern batteries and solar five decades earlier, or was there just a lack of real funding?

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#410

Post by AtlasBarfed » Mon, Apr 05, 2021, 2:16 AM UTC

Tade0 wrote: post #296

wpietri wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The paper says "We estimate that between 1992 and 2016, real price per energy capacity declined 13% per year". Where do you get your data for the last 5 years? Regardless, 1 year isn't the correct duration for a bet. People average owning a car for ~6 years, and the average lifespan is something like 12 years. But depending on terms, I might take a year-over-year bet for battery prices. Demand is high and the pandemi…

One kWh of batteries generally requires around 200g of lithium. Both by weight and price it's a crucial, but small component, so unless it suffered a 10x hike, its price isn't relevant. Meanwhile LiFePO4 batteries, which are currently the most popular chemistry(at least in China), contain no cobalt whatsoever.

Or Nickel, the other limiting factor to top-end batteries.