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Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

economist.com

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Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#221

Post by polote »

r00fus wrote: post #136
ajuc wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Air conditioning isn't needed in many EU countries except for a few days a year (so it's not worth to even install it in private homes, modern offices mostly have them though for some reason). Also depending on the country few people use cloth driers - you just hang your clothes on a cable and let them dry by themselves. Houses in colder parts of EU are also usually better isolated than in US ([1] that's a typical Po…

Global Warming is changing that. Anecdotally in my observations, more new houses in France now have AC whereas it was rare only 5 years ago.

Reversible ac are more energy efficient that heater, x3 I think

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#222

Post by the8472 »

iagovar wrote: post #171
the8472 wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nissan leafs are get into the price range and they're basically first-generation mass-market EVs. Yes people do buy these. And in some european cities street-side/lamppost chargers already are a thing. Multiple conditions are only going to get better, not worse.

Nissan Leafs are ~20k for Km0 offers in Spain. They are very limited cars in range, functionality is behind than a 10K Km0 Fiat Panda. Street chargers are scarce, and usually expensive, and I have a hard time picturing a charger in every parking space in my city.

> Km0 offers

That hardly qualifies as a second-hand market car.

> Street chargers are scarce, and usually expensive

In the past they didn't exist. Today they're scarce. In the future it'll look different. This thread is about trends after all.

> And I have a hard time picturing a charger in every parking space in my city.

We can start smaller of course, it only needs to be scaled up with EV adaoption, not reach 100% penetration immediately. The electric scooters you mentioned would benefit too.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#223

Post by LMYahooTFY »

ekianjo wrote: post #220
nardi wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are not the same kind of stupid. One makes the assumption that costs will always be the same, and the other makes the assumption that cost decreases are linear, or predictable. The former is much stupider.

Nope, it's the same thing: excess of confidence in predicting the future.

The commenter was point out the nuance between the two, it's obviously about confidence in an assertion. You just re-reduced it to what was already obvious?

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#224

Post by wpietri »

nardi wrote: post #203
throwaway0a5e wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, using obsolete data from when tech was bleeding edge in 1999 to imply things about cost going forward is misleading. On the other hand using improvement over the same timeline, drawing a line on a graph and saying "look how X Y is gonna be in Z years" is the same exact type of stupid but pointed in a different direction. In 1991 lithium was highly immature technology and would take about a decade to make it into…

These are not the same kind of stupid. One makes the assumption that costs will always be the same, and the other makes the assumption that cost decreases are linear, or predictable. The former is much stupider.

They are exactly the same kind of error in that both assume stability over time. One assume prices are stable; the other assumes the rate of change is stable.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#225

Post by lanstin »

noahtallen wrote: post #163
iagovar wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think many middle class jobs can support owning a Tesla Model 3 In a handful of countries.

I can’t disagree with that. I feel like the EV conversation is centered on “richer” countries anyways because of infrastructure and tech. I’d be curious to learn how EVs are being approached in countries which are still developing infrastructure

They have electric tuk-tuks already. I think batteries / electric motor are inherently simpler to operate, if not fabricate, than ICE so likely to be cheaper at the mass scale. Even solar + batteries + electric motor. And they scale up and down - you can tiny electric things and giant electric things.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#226

Post by Shivetya »

bdcravens wrote: post #180

Today I bought a new lawn mower, weed eater, and blower, all electric, with batteries, for less than $600 total (not even the cheapest models). They have comparable power to gas-driven models.

Just be sure when using a electric mower you opt for the higher amp batteries. They are also far more limited by wet or tall grass and heaven forbid trying both at once.

Many push mowers will come with a 4amp or higher battery while blowers, weed eaters, and such, use 2 to 2.5amp battery. While the lower amp batteries can work in the mower they will heat up faster and may actually stop if the load they are put under ramps up too fast.

Still even the cost of a 4amp or higher is well worth it to never have oil or gasoline in my garage. Just understand the limitations. I mow a little under 10k square feet which can require a recharge of one or both batteries depending on conditions.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#227

Post by hellbannedguy »

chrisseaton wrote: post #166
r00fus wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely you jest. What safety features on standard vehicles became indispensable in the past 10 years? Note: things like collision avoidance and adaptive cruise are still luxury features and the OG poster wouldn’t have bought those anyway.

Collision avoidance, speed limiting, adaptive speed limiting, adaptive headlights, lane keeping, blind-spot warning, ISO-FIX anchors, far stronger pillars, reversing cameras, lane exit monitors, SOS buttons and GPS reporting, far more air bags, door-cyclist collision warnings, seat-belt pre-tensioning, some have pre-collision suspension raising, etc, etc, etc. I just went from a 2009 Land Rover to a 2020 Land Rover,…

I have heard horror stories about the mechanical/electrical reliability of Range Rovers.

The number one complain has been the powertrain. I know the automatic transmission is the weak spot in most vehicles, but I have heard of complete failures before 100k.

Could you give your evaluation of the vehicle?

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#228

Post by jeffbee »

amelius wrote: post #168
baybal2 wrote: post #83

FYI, the cost of individual cells has long, long gone below $100 per kWh in wholesale volumes. And believe the cost of a pack itself is very quickly approaching $100/kWh as well if not crossed it already. Making batteries is still a rather profitable business with double digit margins, it's just latest equipment, and cathode materials became way more expensive, and hard to get than what small battery makers can affor…

> FYI, the cost of individual cells has long, long gone below $100 per kWh in wholesale volumes. Electric bicycle batteries are still $500 for 500Wh (consumer price, but 10x as expensive).

Wish I could find one that cheap. The Bosch PowerPack 500 is $900 retail and Specialized recently raised the price of the 600Wh pack in certain bikes to $1300. The price is so silly I pried open my obsolete Specialized pack and just replaced the cells myself.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#229

Post by baybal2 »

Robotbeat wrote: post #216
baybal2 wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And I think cheap BEVs will be a HUGE benefit to poor people in the future, since it saves on gas and maintenance costs in the long term. I believe the same, if you race for the lowest cost possible, eventually an EV will be cheaper than the cheapest IC powered car for those exact reasons. ... But as I said above. Wuling MiniEV costs like $5500, which is cheaper than low-end Chinese petrol, or diesel engined sedans…

In part because the MiniEV has really low range (think first generation Leaf) whereas any IC car is gonna be like a Model 3 at least. 200 miles (on the EPA cycle) really is the minimum for a pure electric car IMHO. 250 miles, really. Otherwise it looks like less of a value than an IC car.

Depends who you ask. For most people in the world, even 60km-80km will be more than enough.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#230

Post by an_opabinia »

hristov wrote: post #71

This is important to keep in mind when you read articles and/or studies about how electric cars or wind or solar power is impractical. A lot of the data these studies use is just obsolete. Say you have an opinion piece in a news paper that says that electric cars will always be expensive toys for the rich. It relies on a scientific paper published in a technical journal 2 years ago. The scientific paper does not perf…

While I agree with you broadly, Tesla loses money on its car business. It was profitable for a full year because of the money it makes from selling carbon credits. That’s not exactly a federal subsidy but it’s not making cars either. So I feel like going at this all angry complaining about imprecision or a lack of focus on details comes off ironic.
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