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Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

economist.com

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Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#31
post #16

Electricity consumption varies from household to household. Reminds me of this piece: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/GlobalWarming/story?id=29068... “Armed with Gore's utility bills for the last two years, the Tennessee Center for Policy Research charged Monday that the gas and electric bills for the former vice president's 20-room home and pool house devoured nearly 221,000 kilowatt-hours in 2006, more than 20 time…

10k kWh per year seems really low. Does that include heating?

The US 10k kWh average is extremely high.

The EU average is 3.7k kWh.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#32
post #16

Electricity consumption varies from household to household. Reminds me of this piece: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/GlobalWarming/story?id=29068... “Armed with Gore's utility bills for the last two years, the Tennessee Center for Policy Research charged Monday that the gas and electric bills for the former vice president's 20-room home and pool house devoured nearly 221,000 kilowatt-hours in 2006, more than 20 time…

10k kWh per year seems really low. Does that include heating?

Our family uses about 5k kWh per year. That includes a lot of household appliances that run on electricity but heating is not electric.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#33
post #12
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

40kg translates to 4-9kWh depending on the chemistry, meanwhile houses in the UK draw around 3kWh/day averaged over a year so unless a house is woefully inefficient, it checks out.

> Average US household .. 29kWh/day > houses in the UK .. 3kWh/day Seems believable from what I've heard.

1 KWh/day for Fridge. Lights should do less than 0.5KWh/day. Washing machine is maybe 0.3KWh/day. Maybe, other electronics might add up to 1-2KWh/day. Cooling is not required most of the year. Maybe fans for a couple of months. Heating is separate (EDIT: UK figure), as others have noted.

What else are you using electricity on?

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#34

The article says that today a battery pack the size of a backpack and that weighs about 40kg, can power a house for a day. Is that really so? Would that be a normal house, being powered for an entire day? I find it hard to believe that battery would pack that much energy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density_Extended_Refere... lists "battery, Lithium ion" as 0.46–0.72 MJ/kg.

    : user@host:~; units
    2529 units, 72 prefixes, 56 nonlinear units

    You have: 40 kg * 0.6 MJ/kg
    You want: MJ
     * 24
     / 0.041666667
(The 13.5 kWh in 114 kg tyingq cites for a Powerwall 2 in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26682770 works out to 0.43 MJ/kg, which includes some power electronics as well as the batteries themselves. The US$12500 price ghaff cites in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26682837 works out to under 4 kJ/US$, or US$925/kWh, which is a terribly high price even for lithium-ion.)

24 MJ would be 1 MJ/hour for 24 hours, or 3 MJ/hour for 8 hours, about 300 or 800 watts, respectively. Some houses use much more than that; others use much less. If you're looking at your electric bill, 500 watts would be about 370 kWh per month:

    You have: 500 watts * 1 month
    You want: kWh
        * 365.2422
     / 0.0027379093
40 kg of lithium-ion batteries are indeed roughly the size of a backpack (≈20 liters), though I wouldn't call it a small backpack. Around here, the retail price for the batteries would probably be closer to US$2400 retail than the less than US$2000 they cite, but that's not an error in their calculations; it's just that they're using a lower price of US$140/kWh.

The article claims that in the early 01990s this quantity of batteries would have cost US$75k. I'm pretty sure this is wrong. This quantity of lithium-ion batteries might have cost US$75k, but even today lead-acid batteries cost half what lithium-ion batteries do.

I don't think the price of lead-acid batteries has changed that much over the last 25 or even 50 years, though admittedly I don't have any 30-year-old battery catalogs to check pricing in. Lithium-ion batteries in the 01990s would have weighed only a little more than lithium-ion batteries today, so it looks like they're using the pricing of lithium-ion batteries and the weight of lead-acid batteries.

If you're powering your house from batteries, you should probably do it with lead-acid batteries, not lithium-ion batteries. The big disadvantage of lead-acid batteries is that they weigh roughly three times what lithium-ion batteries do (per joule), so lead-acid electric cars had roughly a third the range of lithium-ion electric cars. But the weight is not enough to matter for a house.

There is enough lithium in Earth's crust to power the world economy through the night. There is, I think, not enough lead. So although lead is currently cheaper, lithium is more scalable. Other less developed candidate options include sodium batteries and aluminum fuel cells.

Nickel-iron batteries might be even cheaper, though I'm not sure, and they're definitely more scalable. Nobody sells them anymore, though lots of telecom centers still run on them.

It's unfortunate that the article cites a power capacity, "1.2 gigawatts-worth of storage", but not an energy capacity, for the US's utility-scale storage rampup last year. 1.2 gigawatts for five minutes would be 100 MWh, in the quaint units used in the energy markets; 1.2 gigawatts for 12 hours would be 14'400 MWh. There is a very significant difference between these; one requires 144 times as much battery behind it than the other. By contrast, the difference between 100 MWh over 5 minutes (1.2 gigawatts) and 100 MWh over 12 hours (0.008 gigawatts) is mostly a matter of what shape the batteries are and how much active cooling is needed. One wonders if this is not simply an error because the author did not know the difference between gigawatts and gigawatt-hours.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#35
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

10k kWh per year seems really low. Does that include heating?

It's about 27kWh/day, and according to the stats in the link fv6 provided elsewhere in this threadset, that's average for a northeast US house. Houses in the south tend to use more like 15-16k kWh/year, due to air conditioning mostly, leaving the 2015ish national average for single detached homes closer to 13k kWh. This post has been an interesting eye-opener for me. Somehow I've never really thought about the number…

Most computing devices are more efficient that they used to be, although there are more of them. I'm reminded of this because I keep my house pretty cool in the winter and used to be my office was relatively cozy even so because of all the heat being thrown off by big CRTs and tower systems under the desk. It's much less so today.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#37
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think in the US it's common to heat and cool badly insulated houses with electricity, whereas in europe almost nobody cools, heat comes from other sources and insulation is taking way more seriously, especially for anything built recently. The best way to reduce your energy bill (whichever source) is to live in the right climate zone I guess.

Electric heat isn't super common, especially in standalone houses, in areas where you need a lot of heat in the US. I don't know the numbers off the top of my head but electricity costs a lot more than gas or oil. You're right about the AC but I still use 20 kWh even with no AC (and no electric heat).

Thanks for the insight. I vaguely remembered that people run the ac in reverse for heat, but that is probably only in paces that almost need no heating.

Do you know why you use that much?

Do you heat your water with electricity?

Fridge, freezer, tv, WiFi, Desktop PC, charging phones and laptop, ligths.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#39
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Average US household .. 29kWh/day > houses in the UK .. 3kWh/day Seems believable from what I've heard.

1 KWh/day for Fridge. Lights should do less than 0.5KWh/day. Washing machine is maybe 0.3KWh/day. Maybe, other electronics might add up to 1-2KWh/day. Cooling is not required most of the year. Maybe fans for a couple of months. Heating is separate (EDIT: UK figure), as others have noted. What else are you using electricity on?

> Heating is separate, as others have noted.

Heating isn't separate for me. For me, cooling isn't required most of the year (probably similar to UK weather), but for many parts of the US cooling is required almost year-round.

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