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Who Owns the Nile?

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Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#81
I have talked with a few Egyptians on the subject. Unfortunately most think a military solution would be simple and straightforward. "Egypt has hundreds of fighter jets. Ethiopia has 20, We can turn the dam into dust".

They probably can. But then what? History is not over yet.

Egypt thinks of Ethiopia as enemy state. A lot of Ethiopians believe Egypt supports every rebel group in Ethiopia. But Ethiopians still don't view Egypt as an enemy, more like a thorn on the side. For thousands of years the Nile has been flowing toward Egypt without much objection. Bombing the dam will change that. It is the equivalent to creating a monster at your water source. Ethiopia will not try to block the water or anything like that. But it can and probably will start small irrigation projects everywhere. And it will stop consulting with Egypt. In the end, this will be much more devastating to Egypt than a hydro-electric dam which isn't even used for irrigation.

What baffles me about the Egyptian stance is, climate change is coming. Projections for fresh water in Africa in the coming decades don't look rosy. Mitigation for this is, fresh water sources should be developed and protected from environmental degradation. And you need the cooperation of upstream countries to do that. Being source of 85% of the Nile, Ethiopia's support is needed to do that.

Even if Ethiopia stops constructing the dam right now, in 50 years, at a time Egypt is sporting 200 million souls, there is potential that water levels on the Nile are probably going to decrease purely from climate change.

The talk of war is stupid. Playing zero sum game of "Only Egypt" is a bad idea.

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#82
post #57

Doesn't Egypt have a really powerful military? If the dam's an existential threat to Egypt, why don't the Egyptians simply launch a military strike to blow it up?

This is perhaps the most American thing I've ever read.

(No offence to any Americans reading this - there's simply no other country that's as insulated from the consequences of its military complex by sheer geography.)

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#83
It is surprising how most of the responses here seem so sympathetic to Egypt whilst forgetting the Nile countries who have had less benefit from a river originating in their territories.

The Black African countries have as much right to benefit from the river as Egypt and the idea that they must submit to some agreement created by the British who ignored the needs of Nile countries is simply absurd.

If any people "own" it is the Ethiopians, the Kenyans and the Ugandans in whose countries the Nile originates not Egypt, and they have as much right to it as anyone else. Instead of having proper negotiations on how the Nile should be shared they bringing up colonial agreements which none of the African countries were parties to. This is simply absurd and as racist as anything else.

Gadaffi created huge pipelines to draw water from aquifers, a resource which is way more valuable than oil, and offered to supply a substantial portion of Egypt's water needs and these fools supported his overthrow and turned the whole country into a scene of chaos, and now they are making silly noises about war with Ethiopia and other crap.

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#84
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Egypt doesn't have the capability. Their air force has too little range and too little refueling capability.

Not exactly. in these situations they would bomb the GERD then ditch, out of fuel, in international waters ready to be picked up or in Sudan. It's been done before. For really high value targets range doesn't matter as much.

Which means they couldn't maneuver at all at the attack site, making themselves extremely vulnerable; Furthermore, a dam is an highly fortified target by nature, making serious damage requires very heavy bombs, not sure they could make it even as a one way trip if they are properly armed.

IMHO, most likely result of an attack (for Egypt) is that Egypt loses a part of its airforce in return for temporarily harming Ethiopia's ability to generate electricity at the site. At which point Ethiopia fills the dam anyway and works on repairing the damage, while Egypt wouldn't be able to repeat this.

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#85

> While most rivers flow south, the Nile flows north I've heard this before, but it doesn't sound right, unless you get a weird bias because of weather patterns and lots of landmass that would drain into the arctic ocean.

I live on the east coast of the United States and I have always felt that rivers flow east from the Appalachian mountains to the Atlantic Ocean.

If I lived in Siberia I would probably think that most rivers flow north to the Arctic Ocean.

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#86

Something similar is happening in South Asia, where China has repeatedly proposed plans to dam rivers in Tibet. This has led to the possibility of war ( https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/china-risks-a-himalayan-water-... ) with India because rivers fed by the Himalayas supply a lot of India’s fresh water, and any alteration would dramatically affect its environment, agriculture, etc. This is a modern issue both because T…

I'm really curious on how they ignored their mexican counterparts, and really astonished that the US use all the caudal from the river leaving nothing to flow through the border. How they even manage to justify that decision is incredible to me.

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#87

I have talked with a few Egyptians on the subject. Unfortunately most think a military solution would be simple and straightforward. "Egypt has hundreds of fighter jets. Ethiopia has 20, We can turn the dam into dust". They probably can. But then what? History is not over yet. Egypt thinks of Ethiopia as enemy state. A lot of Ethiopians believe Egypt supports every rebel group in Ethiopia. But Ethiopians still don't…

Insightful comment, thanks for sharing.

For those that are interested, here is some more context on official cooperation between countries that surround (and are dependent on) the Nile:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nile_Basin_Initiative

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not anymore. The US is an oil exporting nation now.

> The US is an oil exporting nation now. That is irrelevant. Oil is fungible. Block oil exports from the Middle East and the price of oil skyrockets worldwide including in the US.

Not necessarily.

From 1975 to 2015 the US had a law banning most crude oil exports from the US (aside from Canada and partially Mexico), effectively creating a separate North America-only oil market. It wouldn't take much for the US to reinstate this ban, meaning oil produced in the US stays in the US. And since the US is a net oil exporter, that means North American oil prices will stay low and stable.

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#89
post #57

Doesn't Egypt have a really powerful military? If the dam's an existential threat to Egypt, why don't the Egyptians simply launch a military strike to blow it up?

This is stupid. If Ethiopia decides to hurt Egypt, it won't need to build a massive dam. Wasting water has never been too difficult. Egypt would do well to not create such an enemy at their water source.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Air_Force https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_Air_Force

Egypt can just occupy them, install a puppet regime and then move on. They definitely have that capability.

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#90
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and the big ass damn in Ethiopia. Given the civil war there, don't be surprised in this turning into a bigger conflict.

From what I hear, a lot of the internal conflicts in Ethiopia is fuelled by undercover Egyption influence, trying to increase the internal conflicts to weaken the country.

That is the perception here. Predictably, it's behind the hardening of public opinion on the issue of the dam.
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