CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving • Hacker News Board

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#191

Post by rpdillon » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 11:35 PM UTC

bumby wrote: post #170

mrshadowgoose wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can, today, go to Pheonix Arizona, download the Waymo One app, and summon a full self driving vehicle. This happened silently at the end of 2020, and was overshadowed by the ongoing pandemic doom and gloom. https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-dr... On the subject of danger. Literally everything we do is dangerous to some degree. Everything. Self-driving does not need to be perfect, but only…

> On the subject of danger. Literally everything we do is dangerous to some degree. Everything. Self-driving does not need to be perfect, but only better than human drivers. The problem is this statement is written like a technocrat wrote it rather than someone who makes public policy. From an engineering perspective, it’s true that it would only need to be better than a human driver. To be implemented though, it nee…

For me personally, your point really resonates. I trust human drivers in part because our incentives are aligned: neither one of us wants to get into an accident. The incentives of a machine learning model are harder to introspect on, as you point out.

I think there's another issue here, too. It relates to the observation that folks have a fear of flying, but not really a fear of driving, despite driving having about a 1 in 98 chance of killing you over your lifetime, while for aircraft it's more like 1 in 7178 (2008 data from USA Today...hopefully directionally correct). It's been discussed in research extensively[0], and seems to relate to whether or not the person feels they have a sense of personal control. I think your point is well-taken that the technological risks and the publicity challenge are independent barriers to the widespread adoption of AVs.

[0]: https://oxfordre.com/communication/view/10.1093/acrefore/978...

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#192

Post by pchristensen » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 11:35 PM UTC

dealforager wrote: post #131

ChuckMcM wrote: post #102

Having read hundreds of these sorts of CEO leaving letters I'm a bit jaded and cynical. If you're interested in what I see when I read that message, I rewrote it[1] in more plain language. Google demands a lot of its "other bets" companies. Some might say it asks too much. Mostly it seems to me that they want a 'moonshot' company that has the original profitability of search advertising, full stop. And while it would…

I understand the sentiment, but $20M/year really is a waste of time for a $200B/year business. I have a hard time thinking of a way it wouldn't be a loss given the added organizational complexity having those kinds of projects would bring. I thought the entire purpose of "other bets" was to pursue ideas that have the potential to become $XXB/year revenue streams. So of course they want 'moonshot' companies.

Amazon would disagree. They have built a decent company out of a bunch of $XM-$XXM businesses.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#193

Post by Geee » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 11:39 PM UTC

solutron wrote: post #145

Laremere wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really depends on what you mean by "full self driving". Eg, I wouldn't consider the stuff Tesla is doing as self driving at all. I have significant worry because to reduces attention while still requiring it for safety. If you're talking "Hail robocab, don't touch a steering wheel, arrive at your destination", then Waymo is already there: https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-dr... You might me…

Waymo has to learn the exact space it's going to drive in ahead of time, and then have high resolution lidar maps generated to assist. It's currently limited to use in grid-like pre-mapped areas like Phoenix AZ. Tesla is building a general learning solution such that you can take the vehicle anywhere, and not have the requirement that the area be pre-mapped or 'learned' by Tesla beforehand. Tesla has orders of magnit…

Yeah. Andrej Karpathy said in a recent interview that at this point it's almost completely a data problem, instead of a machine learning research problem. Most of their work is in figuring out the best way to collect and annotate lots of good data. Waymo has a few hundred cars and Tesla has millions, and in this problem space, scale wins over more precise sensors.

Here's the interview: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0IuwH7eTZ3TQBfU8XsMaRr?si=6...

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#194

Post by formerly_proven » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 11:42 PM UTC

mrshadowgoose wrote: post #92

endisneigh wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> On the subject of automation. Humanity is on track to have the computational power to perform whole brain emulation decades before 2100. Even if we don't solve the general AI problem through other pathways, we will solve it through this path. Ethical problems aside, once this is achieved, everything will be automatable at a human level of competence. Is this actually true? I haven't heard of this. You're saying we…

Yes, and the methodology I've described (whole brain emulation/WBE) is the worst-case, brute-force, but guaranteed approach. The following diagram captures the expected growth rate of computing power, and contrasts it with several thresholds (in blue) for emulation fidelity ultimately required: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading#/media/File:Who... The human brain works, therefore this technique will work, i…

"There are more synapses in each human brain than stars in the known universe". [1]

I don't believe there is anything guaranteed about "whole [human] brain emulation" in this century.

[1] This isn't quite true, because we estimate there are around 10^22 to 10^24 stars in the universe, while estimations for number of synapses range from 10^14 to 10^15.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#195

Post by loourr » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 11:51 PM UTC

This reads like an obituary

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#196

Post by formerly_proven » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 11:52 PM UTC

solutron wrote: post #145

Laremere wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really depends on what you mean by "full self driving". Eg, I wouldn't consider the stuff Tesla is doing as self driving at all. I have significant worry because to reduces attention while still requiring it for safety. If you're talking "Hail robocab, don't touch a steering wheel, arrive at your destination", then Waymo is already there: https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-dr... You might me…

Waymo has to learn the exact space it's going to drive in ahead of time, and then have high resolution lidar maps generated to assist. It's currently limited to use in grid-like pre-mapped areas like Phoenix AZ. Tesla is building a general learning solution such that you can take the vehicle anywhere, and not have the requirement that the area be pre-mapped or 'learned' by Tesla beforehand. Tesla has orders of magnit…

The problem is, Tesla does not posses magic.

We know (from introspection) how trained skills work. Everyone knows the feeling when that bunch of neurons which you trained to semi-autonomously do something for you (e.g. switch gears, write letters, type words, observing traffic, staying in an imaginary lane etc.) raises their hand so that Daddy AGI (our conscious) can come have a look at that weird situation it doesn't know how to handle.

Tesla can't do that, either, and literally no one on this planet has the faintest idea how to do anything like it.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#197

Post by KirillPanov » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 12:01 AM UTC

jeffy90 wrote: post #18

endisneigh wrote: post #6

That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…

I wonder if perhaps we can't get self driving cars, but maybe we can can't self driving train carts and move completely away from cars?

This is basically where we will end up when the tech industry gets its head out of the clouds.

The carpool lanes will be converted to rail tracks. You can pay extra for a rail-compatible car if you want and sleep during your commute.

As implausible as it sounds this is still way more likely than driverless wheeled vehicles becoming both safe and useful.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#198

Post by anyfoo » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 12:40 AM UTC

bombcar wrote: post #188

anyfoo wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is so, so much easier to have a computer land a plane than to travel through a road infrastructure made for humans. There are no roads, no obstacles, usually not even other planes constraining your plane for any autopilot situation. With autolanding, "other planes" might start becoming an issue, but it's still a vastly different level from the momentary and immediate coordination necessary between cars on public r…

Autoland is impressive but it really is more equivalent to a system (in a car) that automatically applies the brakes than to a full self driving system. Autopilot is simple and a solved problem. Self driving is not either.

Garmin Autoland is much more than "apply the brakes", as I understand. But it's still guiding your plane through an essentially empty environment, not something in the same ballpark as autonomous driving.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#199

Post by jefft255 » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 12:44 AM UTC

solutron wrote: post #151

dqpb wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo is full self driving, not partial

Waymo is little more than a Jurassic Park jeep ride. Only works on the tracks. Take a Waymo vehicle anywhere their engineering staff hasn't spent countless hours driving around back and forth with those ridiculous spinning lidar sensors and roof rack full of who-knows-what and see what's left of their 'self driving'.

I’m very skeptical about achieving FSD in the next few years, but I don’t think your giving them enough credit. Even if you’re limiting yourself to a known city, you still have to deal with human drivers and pedestrians doing weird shit all the time. That’s no small feat, even though it’s far from the ultimate goal of being able to pass out drunk in the back of the car while it gets you home safely.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#200

Post by ChuckMcM » Sat, Apr 03, 2021, 12:51 AM UTC

recuter wrote: post #156

ChuckMcM wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you the CEO or the non-executive employee? One of the reasons I put my email in my profile is that it brings me interesting questions. :-)

I'm gainfully unemployed and like Luke you can't make me go back! I've job hopped looking for a place where people don't engage in the Kabuki but apparently all the worlds a stage. Maybe I'll make one of those lil ships in a bottle this year.

Perhaps you will find, as I did, that the secret here is having a purpose. I know a number of people in the same situation, they don't "have" to work but when they don't have full time employment they just kind of wander this way and that. This becomes a problem when they realize that there is no 'win' in life, you just die. So the time wasted wandering is just that, time they never had to truly live.

Given my experience and my interest in systems I have become something of a 'journeyman' engineer in the traditional sense. I like helping folks and I like figuring things out. I charge money for that because it weeds out the freeloaders but I don't charge a lot of money. My terms are that if its not working out, we'll part friends, but we will part. As a result I've managed to meet some manager types whose only tool in their manager toolbox is "I'll fire you if you don't do that." (which is a pretty weak toolbox).

It is an exceptional thing to be where you are, at the age you are. How you choose to spend the years can be very satisfying and impactful, or a source of anger and regret.