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Who Owns the Nile?

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Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#11

Post by bumbada »

slibhb wrote: post #7
baybal2 wrote: post #2

I know how it will work. Most likely nothing will happen. Egyptian regime is very fragile, and will not risk a foreign intervention while having to suppress monthly uprisings back home.

I think a war with Ethiopia would help the Egyptian regime, assuming it went well. And it probably would because Egypt's military is the strongest in the region minus Israel. The real question is what Sudan would do (probably lie down for the Egyptians).

Ethiopia is probably the only nation in Africa that has not been dominated by foreign powers.

The reason is the topography. Ethiopia has lots of mountains, like Switzerland and it is painful to attack.

Any foreign nation helping Ethiopia could mean disaster for Egypt.

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#12

Post by chriselles »

Egypt literally dies as a nation without Nile water.

Uganda purchasing SU27 advanced long range fighter bombers and Egypt recently placing increased emphasis and resources on training military units(including western training efforts) responsible for upstream Nile force projection is not a coincidence.

Nile resource sharing is a massive flash point.

I recall glancing at an engineering report that indicated clearing/dredging swamps in Sudan could significantly reduce mile water evaporation and increase downstream flow.

But at massive environmental and financial cost.

Perhaps it’s time to stock up on Egyptian cotton sheets now, since the future of Egyptian cotton may seriously be in doubt.

Tough choices to be made amplified by the need for them to be across sovereign borders.

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#13

Post by AnimalMuppet »

slibhb wrote: post #7
baybal2 wrote: post #2

I know how it will work. Most likely nothing will happen. Egyptian regime is very fragile, and will not risk a foreign intervention while having to suppress monthly uprisings back home.

I think a war with Ethiopia would help the Egyptian regime, assuming it went well. And it probably would because Egypt's military is the strongest in the region minus Israel. The real question is what Sudan would do (probably lie down for the Egyptians).

Maybe Sudan would help Egypt. They use the Nile's water too.

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#14

Post by slibhb »

bumbada wrote: post #11
slibhb wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a war with Ethiopia would help the Egyptian regime, assuming it went well. And it probably would because Egypt's military is the strongest in the region minus Israel. The real question is what Sudan would do (probably lie down for the Egyptians).

Ethiopia is probably the only nation in Africa that has not been dominated by foreign powers. The reason is the topography. Ethiopia has lots of mountains, like Switzerland and it is painful to attack. Any foreign nation helping Ethiopia could mean disaster for Egypt.

I suppose in war you never know. But the dam is 10 miles from the Sudanese border.

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#15

Post by bumbada »

sremani wrote: post #6
baybal2 wrote: post #2

I know how it will work. Most likely nothing will happen. Egyptian regime is very fragile, and will not risk a foreign intervention while having to suppress monthly uprisings back home.

The crisis of lack of water is bigger, who ever bombs the shit out of Great Renaissance Dam is going to be popular in Egypt. Egypt more than one occasion came close to doing something like that. Long story short. Who ever has better military capabilities will own the Nile. Egypt can use Suez as another piece to get Europe to accept its bombing campaign.

They face retaliations with the Aswan dam.

Egypt can not use Suez, because the US, Europe and Israel will intervene for sure on that particular case against Egypt and Egypt will lose for sure.

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#16

Post by vfclists »

Egypt is not a "proper" country. It is simply a string of settlements along the banks of Nile river and its delta.

Don't let the large trapezoid shape fool you. Most of that is the result of a line on the ground drawn by colonialists.

If you want see a country like Egypt look at the Gambia, another country drawn along the eponymous river wholly surrounded by Senegal, another product of colonial machinations.

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#17

Post by inglor_cz »

bumbada wrote: post #11
slibhb wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a war with Ethiopia would help the Egyptian regime, assuming it went well. And it probably would because Egypt's military is the strongest in the region minus Israel. The real question is what Sudan would do (probably lie down for the Egyptians).

Ethiopia is probably the only nation in Africa that has not been dominated by foreign powers. The reason is the topography. Ethiopia has lots of mountains, like Switzerland and it is painful to attack. Any foreign nation helping Ethiopia could mean disaster for Egypt.

Controlling the entire Ethiopia would be a huge challenge, but the war objective in a fight over the Nile is much more limited in scope.

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#18

Post by HorkHunter »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #13
slibhb wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a war with Ethiopia would help the Egyptian regime, assuming it went well. And it probably would because Egypt's military is the strongest in the region minus Israel. The real question is what Sudan would do (probably lie down for the Egyptians).

Maybe Sudan would help Egypt. They use the Nile's water too.

They had a joint training Air force operation 2 days ago named "Nile Eagles"

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/egypt-sudan-hold-nile-e...

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#19

Post by baybal2 »

sremani wrote: post #6
baybal2 wrote: post #2

I know how it will work. Most likely nothing will happen. Egyptian regime is very fragile, and will not risk a foreign intervention while having to suppress monthly uprisings back home.

The crisis of lack of water is bigger, who ever bombs the shit out of Great Renaissance Dam is going to be popular in Egypt. Egypt more than one occasion came close to doing something like that. Long story short. Who ever has better military capabilities will own the Nile. Egypt can use Suez as another piece to get Europe to accept its bombing campaign.

> who ever bombs the shit out of Great Renaissance Dam is going to be popular in Egypt.

Would they? GERD destruction = tsunami on the nile, possibly setting a chain reaction through downstream dams.

Sisi has now managed to beat even Murbarak on getting the lowest rating on record from any semblance of legit polls done nowadays.

Turkey is all over Ethiopia, and Sudan on top of that. And Sisi has a paranoid fear of Turkish involvement, either back home as a subversion, or a direct attack from Turkish African bases.

Turkey staring Sisi down from all sides is by far a much bigger concern to him than Ethiopians waving their MiG 21s at him.

If he has a gram of gray matter, he will not push Ethiopians further towards decision on Turkish military base.

Re: Who Owns the Nile?

#20

Post by luckylion »

onetimemanytime wrote: post #8
baybal2 wrote: post #2

I know how it will work. Most likely nothing will happen. Egyptian regime is very fragile, and will not risk a foreign intervention while having to suppress monthly uprisings back home.

Water is life or death. So they might have to try it. Go block oil extraction in the Arab world and USA will be all over you...national interest.

> Go block oil extraction in the Arab world and USA will be all over you...national interest.

You mean like they did in the 70ies when the opec cartel cut oil production for political reasons? yeah...

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