CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving • Hacker News Board

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#31

Post by minhazm » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 6:33 PM UTC

meteor333 wrote: post #11

endisneigh wrote: post #6

That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…

Even for airplanes and trains, we still have pilots and humans behind the controller with 100% attention.

We don't have fully automated planes because they're already safe enough and the economics aren't there.

The probability of crashing with a plane is extremely low, even factoring in the higher risk of takeoffs and landings. The entire process is coordinated with Air Traffic Control.

Since planes are so safe already and pilots are relatively inexpensive, there's no strong financial incentive to fully automate planes.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#32

Post by layoutIfNeeded » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 6:33 PM UTC

tdhz77 wrote: post #21

Self driving is not possible without changes to infrastructure. We know this because NHS tried in 1960’s and was able to succeed with this approach. Government will have to solve problem first. How? Installing sensors on our highways that cars can use. Anything this big in scale can’t be solved by the private sector alone, you also need better infrastructure.

>Self driving is not possible without changes to infrastructure

Humans seem to be perfectly capable of doing it though.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#33

Post by gota » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 6:33 PM UTC

endisneigh wrote: post #6

That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…

I think there's a crucial issue with sensoring. Companies are tackling the problem mainly using sensors that are contained within the car. Even with LIDAR (and not just cameras) it is very hard to "sense" the full scene[1].

What if our roads were built to communicate with the cars? What if there were only AVs on the street and they communicated with each other? What if every bicycle, school backpack, shopping cart did so too, identifying itself in the process?

I think the problem of self-driving is harder right now in the transitional period in which they have to coexist with human drivers and essentially trying to "emulate" how a human driver gathers information (not really, but you get my meaning)

I'm not sure it won't take decades, but I feel like there will be a magical few-months period in which we go from "can it be done?" to "oh, ok,we got it"

[1] shoot, I lost the reference. But Cruise apparently assumes "use whatever is available until it works, we'll make it cost-effective later"

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#34

Post by tialaramex » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 6:33 PM UTC

endisneigh wrote: post #6

That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…

> Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous?

I think this is just the usual goal post moving, if a machine does it then we decide it wasn't really dangerous for a machine to do it.

Garmin Autoland will take a plane which is otherwise working and is in the sky and put it back on the ground because the pilot has a problem (e.g. your plane nut husband finally has another stroke† while taking you and the kids cross country, you've never learned to fly but you just press the button like you were taught and the plane will tell you to remain calm while it figures out where to land and gets itself back down). It isn't cheap (the system needs to control flight surfaces, engines, radios, brakes, more or less everything on a plane) and of course it can't fix a broken plane, but a random non-pilot is going to do a much worse job and "land an aeroplane" seems like it counts as dangerous to me.

> The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO.

If you live in the relatively small service zone for Waymo, you just get in the car and it drives you elsewhere in the zone, like a taxi, except the car is driving. Waymo doesn't want you "partially" driving anything, it doesn't want you near the wheel or pedals, it would prefer if you watch a video or read a book.

† In some countries private pilots have to be fit, but the US has gradually decided that eh, it's your plane, your risk, the main obstacle today for medically unfit private pilots is getting insurance.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#35

Post by Judgmentality » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 6:34 PM UTC

pasttense01 wrote: post #29

SilasX wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, he wants to spend more time with friends and family and travel the world.

Maybe. But a lot of us are cynical when we hear this kind of language from departing CEOs.

I'm pretty sure the person you were responding to was being sarcastic. Then again it's the internet, so who knows?

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#36

Post by xnx » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 6:34 PM UTC

tdhz77 wrote: post #21

Self driving is not possible without changes to infrastructure. We know this because NHS tried in 1960’s and was able to succeed with this approach. Government will have to solve problem first. How? Installing sensors on our highways that cars can use. Anything this big in scale can’t be solved by the private sector alone, you also need better infrastructure.

There were a lot of things that weren't possible in the 1960's that are possible now. Highway driving is the easiest type of driving. If Waymo wasn't limiting their driving to specific areas, I have no doubt their Driver could easily drive through the US interstates without issue.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#37

Post by dqpb » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 6:34 PM UTC

endisneigh wrote: post #6

That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…

Waymo is full self driving, not partial

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#38

Post by endisneigh » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 6:35 PM UTC

tialaramex wrote: post #34

endisneigh wrote: post #6

That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…

> Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I think this is just the usual goal post moving, if a machine does it then we decide it wasn't really dangerous for a machine to do it. Garmin Autoland will take a plane which is otherwise working and is in the sky and put it back on the ground because the pilot has a problem (e.g. your plane nut husband finally has another stroke† while…

> I think this is just the usual goal post moving, if a machine does it then we decide it wasn't really dangerous for a machine to do it.

I strongly disagree. Most machines are not capable of killing you because it makes a mistake.

Do you have an example of something humans did that could kill them that was automated completely that still can kill them, but generally does not anymore? An elevator is one example, but in the case of an elevator its a very bounded problem to solve, and even still hundreds die for unnecessary elevator deaths yearly.

Not to mention an elevator is not an entropic environment. A full self driving car would have to be able to deal with ice suddenly falling on the ground, people crashing around them, etc.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#39

Post by specialp » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 6:35 PM UTC

sp3000 wrote: post #27

endisneigh wrote: post #6

That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…

2100 is almost 80 years from now. Think back to 1940 and how different our world was then. Cars will certainly be automated to some degree. And that will cause a great reduction in the almost 1.35 million people killed globally by motor vehicle accidents. A US statistic: In 2010, there were an estimated 5,419,000 crashes, 30,296 deadly, killing 32,999, and injuring 2,239,000. It is hard for me to imagine a scenario w…

As a whole this is true and could probably be bested. But it would have to be by many magnitudes of order to have people accept it. There's a feeling that isn't necessarily true that one can control their destiny driving and avoid being a statistic. Now we know that isn't always true as you are at the mercy of many other elements. But if autonomous cars were even 90% less fatalities it would still be hard to get humans to give up control for that. It would have to be on the realm of air travel safety.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#40

Post by whimsicalism » Fri, Apr 02, 2021, 6:36 PM UTC

Sherl wrote: post #26

For fully autonomous driving need to happen, all cars must exchange data with each other how robots do in a factory floor. Image and depth perception can solve some problems but a crash or a vehicle can maneuver in any direction. If two self driving cars need to take a decision at a intersection, how are they gonna do it?

Do you need to exchange data with every other driver when you're on the road?