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Welcome to the Decade of Concern

scholars-stage.blogspot.com

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Re: Welcome to the Decade of Concern

#11

Post by ohazi »

dageshi wrote: post #10
ohazi wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There have been unsubstantiated rumors for years that the Taiwanese military has outfitted TSMC fabs with explosives that can be rigged to go off in the event of a mainland invasion in order to deny China access to TSMC capabilities. The rumor doesn't actually need to be true in order to act as a deterrent -- it just needs to be leaked to Chinese officials and considered credible. It also assumes that access to TSMC…

The chinese leadership/official position is that Taiwan is part of China. They don't want to invade and retake it because they want TSMC's chips, they want to retake it because they think it's a rebellious province that needs to be brought to heel.

Right, which may mean that this threat is meaningless, but the rumors are still there, and the outcome is probably what the rest of the world actually cares about when considering the situation.

Re: Welcome to the Decade of Concern

#14

Post by hosh »

dageshi wrote: post #10
ohazi wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There have been unsubstantiated rumors for years that the Taiwanese military has outfitted TSMC fabs with explosives that can be rigged to go off in the event of a mainland invasion in order to deny China access to TSMC capabilities. The rumor doesn't actually need to be true in order to act as a deterrent -- it just needs to be leaked to Chinese officials and considered credible. It also assumes that access to TSMC…

The chinese leadership/official position is that Taiwan is part of China. They don't want to invade and retake it because they want TSMC's chips, they want to retake it because they think it's a rebellious province that needs to be brought to heel.

The dynamic between China and Taiwan is complex, with TSMC being only one factor. China has its hands in many pies, and it spans the economic, historical, cultural, and military.

The best metaphor I have heard that sums this up was that if this were a Go game, Taiwan is a Ko fight between China and US.

Re: Welcome to the Decade of Concern

#16

Post by retrac »

maxrev17 wrote: post #8

Hmm, wish countries would poll their citizens with regards to wanting a war... I wonder how many would happen?

You're downvoted, but it has been postulated that no democracy has ever waged war against another democracy, and that this is a consequence of democratic governance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_peace_theory

As far as I can tell, the observation is historically true. The few possible exceptions are pre-modern, very minor, or are debatable whether the societies involved were in fact democratic -- the first war in the Balkans, 19th century border skirmishes in South America, the Western Allies against Finland in WW II, and Iceland's conflict with the UK over fishing, are some of the stronger counter-examples.

The effect seems real enough, but I'm not sure if it actually means anything deeper, given the cultural similarity and degree of trade among most democracies.

Re: Welcome to the Decade of Concern

#17

Post by paulz_ »

I have no knowledge of this field. Certainly not enough to know if the article is accurate (haven't ever heard of this blog till now). But many of the claims seem well cited.

If this is true...how maddening. How can you spend more than the next 10 countries combined and still mismanage your way into this predicament? Is there anything lumbering bureaucracy cannot destroy?

Re: Welcome to the Decade of Concern

#18

Post by sbierwagen »

>How did this happen? It started with a Clinton era decision to focus on upgrading legacy platforms instead of developing or purchasing new ones:

>By the end of the Bill Clinton administration, the Pentagon had laid out a strategy to update and replace the Reagan-era fleets...

Strange not to mention the USSR collapsed two years before Clinton took office. Hard to justify new weapons systems when you're the global hegemon. Who were these new warships going to be used against, Serbia?

Re: Welcome to the Decade of Concern

#19

Post by dragontamer »

sbierwagen wrote: post #18

>How did this happen? It started with a Clinton era decision to focus on upgrading legacy platforms instead of developing or purchasing new ones: >By the end of the Bill Clinton administration, the Pentagon had laid out a strategy to update and replace the Reagan-era fleets... Strange not to mention the USSR collapsed two years before Clinton took office. Hard to justify new weapons systems when you're the global heg…

If China attacks Taiwan with its newly minted aircraft carriers and large fleets of smaller ships, who will defend them?

Now, I'm pretty sure the USA still beats China in a fair fight. But if the USA is playing defense with Taiwan, the picture is very different. China is far closer and therefore has more nearby support: in particular, air support and cruise missiles.

In a neutral fight, keeping our fleets outside of Chinese radar / aircraft range will be rather natural. But if we're talking about Taiwan specifically, its clearly a different picture: China can pretty much pepper any ship near Taiwan with its airforce and/or cruise missiles.

China invades Taiwan is probably one of the potential fights in this "Terrible 20s" period, where China has enough advantages to seriously consider the move. Not necessarily because of Chinese military spending (which has increased), or technology, but because of simple geographical advantages.

A proper invasion of Taiwan isn't even necessary. Chinese naval forces can start a blockade and really mess up international trade.

-------------

China vs South Korea is a bit further out but still within a zone where the Chinese Mainland offers a strong advantage to a hypothetical Chinese attacking force.

Re: Welcome to the Decade of Concern

#20

Post by AussieWog93 »

phtrivier wrote: post #6

Is taiwan the Sudètes of someone ? What happens if taiwan just gets invaded, like crimea was, and no one balks ?

Even if the US doesn't really care, SEA will perceive it as a huge threat. Of course, not much we can do, since China's the only one with nukes...
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