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New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

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Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#111

Post by dathinab »

It's a bit different then lottery.

Each crypto currency (well most) act like a collectors marked, i.e like art, antiques, trading cards and so on.

The only lottery aspect is weather or not niche currencies become well established, kinda like weather or new sources of classical collectibles become well established.

Some now would argue that collectibles in difference to crypto currencies have a real world value which backs them but that's a misconception such real world value is most times completely negligible if the collectors marked fails. In some cases it will even cost you money to get right of the now basically worthless collectibles.

Also similar to there being cryptocurrency which are a scam there are collectibles which are such. Like supposedly priceless pictures being sold for over a thousand dollar being only worth like 5 dollar or so, i.e. you basically lose the full investment

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#112

Post by 35fbe7d3d5b9 »

whatshisface wrote: post #102
35fbe7d3d5b9 wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If every government in the world is printing money like crazy, how is this "stable". It's not stable for most governments, and they risk an inflationary crisis if they go too far. But the US government is a bit different: the dollar is backed up on one side by Saudi oil exports and OPEC agreements to reinvest profits into US Treasury bonds. And on the other side is the Fifth Fleet.

How exactly does the Fifth Fleet back the dollar?

Ask Saddam Hussein, who tried to price Iraqi oil in Euros in 2000. Or Gaddafi, who was tolerated by western powers until he tried to introduce the pan-African gold Dinar and encourage oil producing nations to de-dollarize in favor of it.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#113

Post by pixl97 »

bko wrote: post #90
nknealk wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the gold standard, for example, contributed in some ways to The Great Depression Most people don’t realize this. A great book on the topic is Lords of Finance which outlines how the gold standard made the Great Depression truly great. Even during covid, I don’t think people realize just how fundamentally important Fed actions were to basic things like keeping food on grocery store shelves.

There is plenty of blame to throw around during interventionist policies during the Great Depression. Take a look at Wickard v Filburn: > An Ohio farmer, Roscoe Filburn, was growing wheat to feed animals on his own farm. The US government had established limits on wheat production, based on the acreage owned by a farmer, to stabilize wheat prices and supplies. Filburn grew more than was permitted and so was ordered t…

>Gold. There's a fixed amount of it with a pretty well known supply and demand.

At least until someone lands a autonomous mining craft on an asteroid full of it can crashes the market. Anything can be upset by changes in technology.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#114

Post by devmunchies »

endisneigh wrote: post #27

It makes sense. In my experience the primary goal for most crypto holders is to be a part of a new elite. This is why the most popular currencies have a fixed supply. That way, if they're popular earlier adopters get to be a part of the elite. With such a premise it makes sense to treat crypto like the lottery as the gain/loss likelihood is very similar to say, Mega Millions. I do see value in a crypto that's pinned…

> In my experience the primary goal for most crypto holders is to be a part of a new elite.

as opposed to new banks and funds, who want to be part of the established elite?

> Needless to say, very few people at least on HN have bragged about owning an inflationary crypto currency. Why? Because they're not getting rich

people don't brag about failed businesses either.

> Regardless, every government in world history that's pinned their currency to something that's relatively fixed has had a severe depression with some part of that depression being contributed to said pinning. It's just not good economics.

yeah but people could afford a home 50 years ago so theres that to consider.

you're accounting for the ability to curb the impact of a depressive event, which is good, but an inflationary currency might have a bigger, deeper impact over 40 years than on the surface.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#115

Post by kneel »

cool_dude85 wrote: post #76
kneel wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd prefer to live in a hybrid system where I can allocate what I need, where I need, when I want. There is a very good argument for fiat as well as a good argument for crypto.

You want to be able to put some of your money in a less-liquid form, hoping to earn some return? Have I got good news for you about the past thousand years or so.

Yeah? Tell me about it

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#116

Post by cryptoquick »

andrewmutz wrote: post #17
rodiger wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? Plenty of crypto projects have real utility. Also for a counterpoint: commodities such as gold and other precious metals are predominantly traded as speculative vehicles.

Which crypto projects are providing real utility to people outside the crypto space? I can think of using bitcoin for remittances or drug purchases, but other than that I have trouble thinking of compelling examples.

Filecoin, for one. Long-term data storage is essentially a byproduct of its mining algorithm, much like waste heat from Bitcoin miners.

Also, there's utility in a trustless, predictable, uncorruptible source of scarcity. Meanwhile, the supply of gold is difficult to audit, we have no idea to what extent nation states are manipulating its supply.

The value of a deflationary monetary policy cannot be understated.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#117

Post by frockington1 »

jandrese wrote: post #85
frockington1 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is broken about it? People were over leveraged and others acted on it. Seems to be working as intended. If GME is at this P/E a year from I'll agree with you

The complete disconnect from reality? How much of that money is going to be available to Gamestop to turn their business around? How is this different than gambling on horse races except that instead of horses you have corporations?

Difference is all about ownership. You don't own a portion of the horse, you own a stake of the outcome of one race. When you buy a share of a company, you own 0.00001% of said company. Gamestop does not have access to that money as they sold their stake in exchange for cash at a past date. As a shareholder, you can use your stake to vote in shareholder meetings and if large enough be on the board to help turn the business around

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#118

Post by bko »

pixl97 wrote: post #113
bko wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is plenty of blame to throw around during interventionist policies during the Great Depression. Take a look at Wickard v Filburn: > An Ohio farmer, Roscoe Filburn, was growing wheat to feed animals on his own farm. The US government had established limits on wheat production, based on the acreage owned by a farmer, to stabilize wheat prices and supplies. Filburn grew more than was permitted and so was ordered t…

>Gold. There's a fixed amount of it with a pretty well known supply and demand. At least until someone lands a autonomous mining craft on an asteroid full of it can crashes the market. Anything can be upset by changes in technology.

That's the innovation of bitcoin. Lot harder to break SHA256 ;-)

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#119

Post by rodiger »

cryptoquick wrote: post #116
andrewmutz wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which crypto projects are providing real utility to people outside the crypto space? I can think of using bitcoin for remittances or drug purchases, but other than that I have trouble thinking of compelling examples.

Filecoin, for one. Long-term data storage is essentially a byproduct of its mining algorithm, much like waste heat from Bitcoin miners. Also, there's utility in a trustless, predictable, uncorruptible source of scarcity. Meanwhile, the supply of gold is difficult to audit, we have no idea to what extent nation states are manipulating its supply. The value of a deflationary monetary policy cannot be understated.

Filecoin is useful, but incredibly overpriced and its model unfortunately perpetuates ponzi-like investing[0]. Also deflationary monetary policy is awful if you want people to spend money. Why buy something today if it will be cheaper tomorrow?

[0] https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/mhpaar/file...

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#120

Post by viklove »

yunohn wrote: post #23
viklove wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We missed the train on MSFT, AAPL, TSLA, etc. as well. Are those pyramid schemes in your eyes, too?

No, they’re called companies.

Bravo, 10/10 response.

Since you seem to be ignorant of this, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC and Enron were also "companies," so your response isn't as witty as you think.

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