New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets • Hacker News Board

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#31

Post by Tenoke » Thu, Apr 01, 2021, 6:36 PM UTC

henvic wrote: post #9

It's trivial. Just say any is pure speculation of thin air and you'll be right. There's no sense in the currently existing crypto currencies. They're all fiat money. Peter Schiff was right back then... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw and he's still right now. https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1345427870546538509

There's plenty of cryptocurrencies that are more akin to stock in a project or have functionalities tied to them. For example, ETH which is used to pay fees to run code on the chain, SNX which allows you to invest in synthetic assets, decentralized exchanges like UNI or SUSHI, rewards for users as in the spotify-like AUDIO etc.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#32

Post by julienb_sea » Thu, Apr 01, 2021, 6:36 PM UTC

rodiger wrote: post #12

qeternity wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s because all of those things are predominantly traded due to their underlying utility. Like lotteries, which have no utility other than taxes and speculation, crypto currencies are almost entirely valuable as tools for speculation.

What? Plenty of crypto projects have real utility. Also for a counterpoint: commodities such as gold and other precious metals are predominantly traded as speculative vehicles.

To be fair, the utility of crypto projects has remained primarily in theory. There is only minimal advantage to using crypto for actual payments in any legal transaction, and there are some pretty glaring disadvantages (volatility for one).

Also, I'm not sure your counterpoint is that legitimate. No one is investing in gold in the hopes that it doubles or triples in value, whereas that is clearly the hopes of many BTC or ETH buyers.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#33

Post by methodin » Thu, Apr 01, 2021, 6:38 PM UTC

andrewmutz wrote: post #17

rodiger wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? Plenty of crypto projects have real utility. Also for a counterpoint: commodities such as gold and other precious metals are predominantly traded as speculative vehicles.

Which crypto projects are providing real utility to people outside the crypto space? I can think of using bitcoin for remittances or drug purchases, but other than that I have trouble thinking of compelling examples.

Having only cursory knowledge of this space I'll take a stab at an answer: every consumer of a company that uses crypto internally. AWS doesn't provide any real utility for people outside of the AWS space except for consumers of companies that use AWS. Feel free to point out I'm wrong as again I don't follow this space in-depth.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#34

Post by jandrese » Thu, Apr 01, 2021, 6:39 PM UTC

bhouston wrote: post #15

undefined1 wrote: post #5

how does it compare to the gambling of stocks on Robinhood?

It is probably very similar when it is stocks that are nearing bankruptcy or otherwise have horrid fundamentals. If the stocks do have fundamentals and the PE ratio makes sense relative to the growth factor, then it isn't pure gambling.

I think there is an argument to be made that as stock growth has outpaced GDP growth for many years now that the connection between the markets and the real world has become tenuous. The fundamentals become less important over time as crazy speculation continues to win out.

GME is a symptom of a broken system.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#35

Post by sosuke » Thu, Apr 01, 2021, 6:40 PM UTC

iso1631 wrote: post #25

toolz wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

globally recognized stores of wealth that can be transferred instantly makes no sense to you? Have you ever tried to trade with someone outside of your country, it's not easy or cheap. If fiat money is a bad thing, then I guess we're all doomed since the entire worlds economy is based on fiat money. cryptocurrency will have the ability to solve global equality problems like no other tech has been able to in history.…

> Have you ever tried to trade with someone outside of your country, it's not easy or cheap. Yes, it's easy and cheap

I spent $25 sending a $300 wire transfer from my bank to a different bank. It was easy. But that is not at all cheap.

The only service around that allowed a Canadian friend to send me money was PayPal. His bank and mine didn't feel like talking to each other.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#36

Post by jerry80 » Thu, Apr 01, 2021, 6:40 PM UTC

andrewmutz wrote: post #19

henvic wrote: post #9

It's trivial. Just say any is pure speculation of thin air and you'll be right. There's no sense in the currently existing crypto currencies. They're all fiat money. Peter Schiff was right back then... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw and he's still right now. https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1345427870546538509

They are fiat money? I don't think they are fiat money. Fiat money has actual utility as you need it to pay your taxes.

Fiat means it's backed by a state. The definition and etymology of the word makes it clear [1][2].

I wouldn't go so far as to say that fiat must have "actual utility" though. Being forced to use a currency in order to avoid prison time is more like extortion, rather than utility.

Crypto isn't fiat, though, in any case.

1. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/fiat 2. https://www.etymonline.com/search?q=fiat

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#37

Post by hashingroll » Thu, Apr 01, 2021, 6:40 PM UTC

henvic wrote: post #9

It's trivial. Just say any is pure speculation of thin air and you'll be right. There's no sense in the currently existing crypto currencies. They're all fiat money. Peter Schiff was right back then... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw and he's still right now. https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1345427870546538509

Just looked at his twitter and interestingly his tweet ~4 hours ago [0] says "I was wrong about #Bitcoin.". Though it is likely an April Fools joke.

[0] https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1377626254619328524

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#38

Post by young_unixer » Thu, Apr 01, 2021, 6:40 PM UTC

To the anti-BTC crowd:

Yes, the current price of crypto is based on speculation, not in their current utility.

But there also was a dotcom bubble 20 years ago. Does that mean that the World Wide Web is useless?

Cryptocurrencies will be highly useful as stores of value and maybe as currency. We're just not there yet.

This is just the Gartner hype cycle, with the addition that for the first time we have a global market completely parallel to the traditional one with much less regulation. No wonder people are going to speculate with it. It's our new toy.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#39

Post by celticninja » Thu, Apr 01, 2021, 6:40 PM UTC

bhouston wrote: post #14

henvic wrote: post #9

It's trivial. Just say any is pure speculation of thin air and you'll be right. There's no sense in the currently existing crypto currencies. They're all fiat money. Peter Schiff was right back then... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw and he's still right now. https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1345427870546538509

You're getting crazy down voted, instead people should reply.

What is there to reply about? Schiff has been calling bitcoin a scam for years. The linked tweet says that no one will be making a profit, which ignores a lot of people who have already made a lot of money. So it's disingenuous, also he has been wrong for a decade.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#40

Post by epx » Thu, Apr 01, 2021, 6:41 PM UTC

peytn wrote: post #28

toolz wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

globally recognized stores of wealth that can be transferred instantly makes no sense to you? Have you ever tried to trade with someone outside of your country, it's not easy or cheap. If fiat money is a bad thing, then I guess we're all doomed since the entire worlds economy is based on fiat money. cryptocurrency will have the ability to solve global equality problems like no other tech has been able to in history.…

The “store of wealth” excuse is pretty transparently just to lure greater fools after the crypto-is-money thing didn’t pan out. The only wealth that’s stored is the network of people pumping these things. And guess what: that network will move on to the next thing eventually.

The “store of wealth” is a rationalization of the fact that greedy miners have taken over and fossilized the B development.