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The political case for a blanket cryptocurrency ban

stephendiehl.com

181–190 of 630 posts

Re: The political case for a blanket cryptocurrency ban

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gambling, e.g. casino or sports betting is different because for some it's a fun pastime and participants are (more or less) aware of what it's about. "Crypto" - not the underlying tech which is potentially interesting and may have merit in some incarnation - but buying or trading "assets" grounded in the tech, is essentially a quasi-legal pump and dump scheme right now. There is a rich history of securities law that…

Its odd that I can drop a hundred grand at the Venetian, but not in a mates start-up.

You can't? In what jurisdiction? I dropped ten grand in a mate's (UK) startup a couple of years ago and all we needed was an accountant to formalise the transaction and issue me a share certificate.

Re: The political case for a blanket cryptocurrency ban

#182
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My argument would be it's the only thing on that list of inflation hedges that has a fixed supply. Lot's of gold is mined each year. Houses are built. Stock is issued, etc. Bitcoin has a well-established upper limit.

> [Bitcoin is] the only thing on that list of inflation hedges that has a fixed supply. Aha! That brings me to my next question. In what sense does bitcoin actually have a fixed supply? Sure, a loose coalition of people agree for it to have a fixed supply at the moment, but if enough of the miners, core developers, etc. agree they can change the rules arbitrarily, viz. hard forks. Why should we believe that bitcoin r…

That's mostly a matter of economic incentives. It's technically possible but it's similar to the idea of a rich person lighting a pile of money on fire.

If a proposal to raise the cap is introduced, price would react negatively, hurting miners, and making it more (relatively) expensive to mine. It's unlikely there is any scenario where it is economically feasible to try to raise the supply cap.

Re: The political case for a blanket cryptocurrency ban

#183

Notice: When Wall street decides to horrible things with money in its various ways, nobody bats an eye. When fraud happens, nobody goes to jail. It's business as usual. When the People decides to do horrible things with money in its various ways, we see hardware manufacturers attempt to lock down hardware to prevent it (nVidia), we see the SEC collectively lose their shit, we see completely inconsistent rules from th…

You can't justify your own 'bad behaviour' by pointing at someone else's bad behaviour. That is whataboutism, to distract from - I believe - valid and substantiated criticism. I agree that so much is wrong with Wall Street, but that is another discussion. That is a separate issue to me.

Whataboutism - why do I see this word so much these days?

Whenever I see it, I notice people are often basically trying shut down an honest comparative analysis by another party.

Re: The political case for a blanket cryptocurrency ban

#184
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This article seems to intentionally ignore the core reason for cryptocurrencies; escaping inflation I'm extremely confused by this argument that I see again and again. If you want to avoid your assets losing value to inflation that you can buy assets that are resistant to inflation, such as stocks, real estate, land, gold, inflation-adjusted bonds ... I just don't see that cryptocurrencies are particularly useful f…

Real estate has clearly been shown to not be resistant to inflation over the past year.

actually 15% sounds about right and normally would be higher this time because of all the printed money. I would of expected something like 35-45%.

Resistant to inflation means that the price increases roughly with the same % as inflation.

Re: The political case for a blanket cryptocurrency ban

#185
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most of the article's arguments work if you replace the word "Gold" for the word cryptocurrency I don't see it. Doesn't seem to apply to ponzi scheme, or facilitating cyber attacks, or the environmental impact. Perhaps you could give some explicit examples.

I don't like the way bitcoin mining wastes energy, but mining gold certainly has an environmental impact. Most of the machinery is currently powered by fossil fuels, and most of the gold isn't used for useful applications AFAIK. I'm glad some cryptos are moving to proof of stake, and I wonder if bitcoin will be able to make that transition too, or if the miners have too much to lose to let that happen?

> mining gold certainly has an environmental impact

Can you quantify the environmental impact of gold mining? How does it compare to the CO2 output of a medium-sized country?

Re: The political case for a blanket cryptocurrency ban

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Banning crypto is a gigantic overreach when the government won't even try the obvious solutions like carbon taxes (which would indirectly discourage crypto mining).

I see the situation in the exact opposite way. Passing a Carbon Tax, while sensible, would run in major opposition because it would basically effect every citizen. But banning cryptocurrency would be much easier since the majority of the population doesn't own any and it can be framed in very positive terms.

Usually across-the-board regulation is seen as upholding the free market more than regulation that targets specific individuals or industries.

Re: The political case for a blanket cryptocurrency ban

#187

Even if you take the most cynical approach towards crypto, banning crypto is simply not the governments job. At best, this is equivalent to banning beanie babies (no real negative affects for society, but stupid and a big overreach). At worst, it's equivalent to banning the internet (sets the country behind decades as the rest of the world adopts the new technology and profits from it).

Without arguing for or against such a ban - it is literally in the purview of governments. Control and regulation of financial mechanisms is a key part of state sovereignty. So, such a ban would is much more "the government's job" than banning a product like beanie babies. It's also not the equivalent of banning the Internet; perhaps - similar to banning gambling through the Internet. In the sense that it may be impo…

You're right that the political case is easy to make. Governments do already claim the authority to control and regulate these things.

The interesting question about Bitcoin is whether it could ever be robust enough that they couldn't successfully regulate or control it, even if they very much wanted to and most people agreed it would be appropriate for them to do so.

Re: The political case for a blanket cryptocurrency ban

#188

This article seems to intentionally ignore the core reason for cryptocurrencies; escaping inflation and control. The article then proposes to use the law to bring those people back within the control of fiat and government oversight. I no longer think the environmental argument is really plausible here. Clearly crypto mining is emitting using a lot of power and some of that is CO2. But the competition is fiat; backed…

> But the competition is fiat; backed by fighter jets and nukes; literally. How is it that someone can't steal your money? The bank makes sure. How is it the bank can be sure? The cops protect them. How is it the cops aren't overwhelmed? The military protects them.

At first glance, I find this an interesting take and it makes me rethink some things. But I don't think I find it very convincing, or at least it's too exaggerated. Fighter jets and nukes primarily protect physical property and institutions, not cash. The primary purpose of banks is to lend, i.e. to allocate resources, not to protect people's cash. And police don't spend much of their time on currency theft - it's much more about order in public space. A side effect of all these things is a stable society in which cash can thrive (backed by the idea that you can pay your taxes in it).

I'm willing to believe that bitcoin would survive certain modes of societal collapse that fiat currency wouldn't. I'm not sure that those modes are particularly likely to happen.

Re: The political case for a blanket cryptocurrency ban

#189
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Home prices in my area are up around 15% over the past year.

That makes real estate investments a good defense against inflation. A good defense against inflation are assets whose price increases at a rate higher than the rate of inflation. A bad defense would be an asset whose price increases at a rate lower than that of inflation.

I'm not sure anyone in this thread knows what inflation is. If the cost of housing rises, that is inflationary against all other fungible assets that could be used to purchase housing. That is, one requires a larger quantity of all assets -- dollars, crypto, stocks, bodily fluids, etc. -- to acquire a roof over one's head. Only if the cost to purchase housing is somehow lower by holding value in a particular asset could you get ahead of the inflationary pressure caused by rising housing prices. Too many cryptonuts think inflation just means "money supply." That is play time economics.

Re: The political case for a blanket cryptocurrency ban

#190
Bitcoin (like gold since the gold standard ended) is just a "check" on Fiat currencies and can act as insulation from central banks that issue too much money too quickly.

Fiats will continue to exist alongside bitcoin/cryptos, they'll just eventually have to "compete" a bit more (i.e., not be printed so readily by gov'ts) or else they'll become significantly less relevant.

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