Live data from Hacker News

Fukushima: It's much worse than you think

english.aljazeera.net

81–90 of 112 posts

Re: Fukushima: It's much worse than you think

#81
post #37
post #16

In addition to the other criticism. From the article: TEPCO announced that the accident probably released more radioactive material into the environment than Chernobyl, making it the worst nuclear accident on record. Is there a reference supporting this? I've only seen values for Fukushima radiation as a fraction of Chernobyl (and if I remember correctly, not as bad isotopes)? A while ago, I got multiple comments mod…

With zero effort, I found this for you: http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110413005584.htm ; "Junichi Matsumoto, acting head of Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s Nuclear Power & Plant Siting Division, acknowledged the seriousness of the Fukushima accident at a press conference Tuesday. 'Although the details of the [Chernobyl and Fukushima] accidents are different, from the standpoint of how much radiation has been relea…

You might want to read what you google. :-)

That was from Apr. 14, when they didn't really have that much of a clue -- and different sources in that article said different things.

Edit: But sure, I asked for "a reference". Maybe I should have asked for "a reference that is more than a claim by some company man (not a researcher in a paper etc), with an unknown agenda"... :-)

Re: Fukushima: It's much worse than you think

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Overall, uranium is toxic in the same way that lead is toxic, and the chemical toxicity is probably worse than the radiotoxicity. You know darn well we're not talking about "overall uranium". We're talking about very hot uranium and plutonium directly from the cores of active nuclear reactors and the entire spectrum of elements and isotopes that get produced when you take that core, rods, and support structure and me…

The uranium in that reactor isn't different from overall uranium, except that it's concentrated and its composition differs from what naturally occurs. However, that's over there . Uranium would be dangerous to US citizens if the uranium was in the US . It isn't. And so far, not even the worst doomsayers that actually know their stuff have worried about uranium or plutonium. That's just not the stuff you care about a…

The uranium in that reactor isn't different from overall uranium, except that it's concentrated and its composition differs from what naturally occurs.

That can be a pretty serious categorical difference, particularly in the concentration.

However, that's over there. Uranium would be dangerous to US citizens if the uranium was in the US. It isn't.

Duh.

Did you even read what I wrote or are you pasting this from some talking points you got somewhere?

And so far, not even the worst doomsayers that actually know their stuff have worried about uranium or plutonium.

Which is not to say it's not a problem, only that you find some reason to dismiss the views you don't agree with.

That's just not the stuff you care about after a nuclear meltdown. You care about the other isotopes that were produced and that are much more easily carried outside and are easily used to compose other molecules that can spread further.

That must be why they're setting limits on the acceptable level of uranium in the rice then. To draw attention away from the things that are really dangerous. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-03-28/fukushima-may-ab... Riiight.

Secondly, what on earth is 'hot uranium'?

What I said was "very hot uranium and plutonium directly from the cores of active nuclear reactors and the entire spectrum of elements and isotopes that get produced when ...".

If you are speaking about the temperature: it certainly isn't hot anymore by the time it reaches the US. If you are speaking about it's radioactivity,

In this case, the term 'hot' captures temperature (in Celsius), reactivity (neutrons), and the health effects of radioactivity (Becquerels). It works on many levels.

you're wrong: individual uranium atoms from that reactor, once escaped, do not behave differently than naturally occurring uranium atoms.

You really seem to want me to be talking about specifically uranium atoms in fallout on the continental US. The vast majority of that article is about Japan with only a few sentences claiming some nonspecific particles could be detected in the US.

Is it that you know only this one counter argument, the one that natural and low-enriched uranium samples aren't wildly different in decay rates?

As for your other fears:

I'm not afraid, you're just making that up.

it's perfectly well known what radioactive isotopes controlled and uncontrolled fission processes can produce.

I don't think our knowledge of these meltdowns is anywhere close to "perfect", but note that I said "the entire spectrum of elements and isotopes...".

They don't know what temperatures were reached what state of matter the cores were in and for what time periods. The IAEA says there could have been recriticality, but they don't know for sure one way or the other.

That's why they've been monitoring for things like cesium, iodine and basically every radioactive isotopes that exists: the number is rather limited).

Do you think I've never heard of the periodic table or something?

Re: Fukushima: It's much worse than you think

#83
post #37
post #16

In addition to the other criticism. From the article: TEPCO announced that the accident probably released more radioactive material into the environment than Chernobyl, making it the worst nuclear accident on record. Is there a reference supporting this? I've only seen values for Fukushima radiation as a fraction of Chernobyl (and if I remember correctly, not as bad isotopes)? A while ago, I got multiple comments mod…

With zero effort, I found this for you: http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110413005584.htm ; "Junichi Matsumoto, acting head of Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s Nuclear Power & Plant Siting Division, acknowledged the seriousness of the Fukushima accident at a press conference Tuesday. 'Although the details of the [Chernobyl and Fukushima] accidents are different, from the standpoint of how much radiation has been relea…

Could they be referring to the INES disaster scale, on which Fukushima rates equal to Chernobyl?

Also, the direct release of radiation from the reactor is significantly less serious than the release of certain radioisotopes. If they're only comparing absolute radiation levels, and (hypothetically) most of Chernobyl's was in radioactive cesium, while most of Fukushima's was in alpha/beta/gamma particles or short-lived radioactive oxygen/nitrogen/etc., then the comparison is not very useful.

Re: Fukushima: It's much worse than you think

#84
post #45
post #7

"In the US, physician Janette Sherman MD and epidemiologist Joseph Mangano published an essay shedding light on a 35 per cent spike in infant mortality in northwest cities that occurred after the Fukushima meltdown, and may well be the result of fallout from the stricken nuclear plant." Somehow, I'm not surprised by this. Janette Sherman is an anti-nuclear activist: http://janettesherman.com/ Joseph Mangano is the di…

While the idea that Fukushima would be responsible for a 35% increase in infant mortality anywhere in the U.S. strains ones credulity, her being anti-nuclear is not proof of her being wrong. It's not like MIT nuclear scientists are "disinterested parties", either. Pretty much everyone who's knowledgeable about nuclear power has a stake either way. There are two competing effects at work here, and it's hard to say whi…

While the idea that Fukushima would be responsible for a 35% increase in infant mortality anywhere in the U.S. strains ones credulity, her being anti-nuclear is not proof of her being wrong

Ehh, no, but...

While ad hominem makes for lousy arguments, when we're dealing with a claim that's already completely freaking implausible, knowing that it comes from an unreliable source is generally enough for me personally to decide it's not worth my time.

If a respected professor of physics claims to have invented a perpetual motion machine then I'll probably take some time to actually investigate it and figure out exactly why it's wrong. If it's some random dude off the street I'll dismiss it without consideration because... well, who has time?

Re: Fukushima: It's much worse than you think

#86
post #11

The quick onslaught of the "it couldn't possibly be a meltdown" message in the mainstream media and the "MIT professor says" emails/webpages, etc all smacked of a propaganda campaign to me. All the while the fuel rods were sitting in a puddle at the bottom of the reactor... and probably leaking through into the ground. Of course, it's more likely that it was a lot of people not willing to believe the scope of the cat…

The first reactions to Fukushima on HN and the downvotes of your inconvenient comment show the massive pro-nuclear bias of many users here.

It's not so much pro-nuclear as it is pro-"scientific progress".

Re: Fukushima: It's much worse than you think

#87
post #73

The quick onslaught of the "it couldn't possibly be a meltdown" message in the mainstream media and the "MIT professor says" emails/webpages, etc all smacked of a propaganda campaign to me. All the while the fuel rods were sitting in a puddle at the bottom of the reactor... and probably leaking through into the ground. Of course, it's more likely that it was a lot of people not willing to believe the scope of the cat…

Except it's not a total meltdown. The last reports I've seen suggest it may be a partial meltdown that is still fairly well contained. And people did not say it could not melt down. They claimed that even if it did, it would not be a Cherynobl like event. The claim was that the reactor design includes some form of containment in the event of a meltdown. Unless I'm missing some new news, all these claims have held. Yo…

Correct on all counts.

Re: Fukushima: It's much worse than you think

#88
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this the kind of argument that Paul Graham charcterizes as "ad hominem" and usually gets voted down on Hacker News? Don't get me wrong, personally I think it's very valid to bring up and important to keep in mind while reading their article. But it seems like a double standard to me.

Motive is incredibly important. Saying someone has a reason to be biased is not ad hominem. Saying they're a fucking hippie is.

From "How to Disagree"'s definition of Ad Hominem:

For example, if a senator wrote an article saying senators' salaries should be increased, one could respond:

    Of course he would say that. He's a senator. 
This wouldn't refute the author's argument, but it may at least be relevant to the case. It's still a very weak form of disagreement, though. If there's something wrong with the senator's argument, you should say what it is; and if there isn't, what difference does it make that he's a senator?

http://www.paulgraham.com/disagree.html

Re: Fukushima: It's much worse than you think

#89
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this the kind of argument that Paul Graham charcterizes as "ad hominem" and usually gets voted down on Hacker News? Don't get me wrong, personally I think it's very valid to bring up and important to keep in mind while reading their article. But it seems like a double standard to me.

Paying attention to the credibility of a source is not even in the same universe as an ad hominem attack.

Look at Paul's example that I posted above

Re: Fukushima: It's much worse than you think

#90
post #21

From the article, it seems as though experts are saying the design of the reactors by GE didn't take into account that Japan has earthquakes. GE was never named directly, but wikipedia says it was their design. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_Nuclear_Power...

AFAICT the plants reacted to and withstood the earthquakes fairly well. The tsunami on the other hand...well I guess nuke plants and 14 meter high walls of water don't mix.

Actually we don't know that, since most of the reactor building in inaccessible. Also, the latest info from Tepco says that they lost coolant before the tsunami struck, which suggest major earthquake damage. However, if the tsunami hadn't been this severe and they had kept power, perhaps they could have brought the situation under control.
Post reply on HN