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China passes Hong Kong “patriot” election law

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Re: China passes Hong Kong “patriot” election law

#111

Post by dustinmoris »

joghoen wrote: post #109
christophilus wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had an coworker who lived in Israel. I mentioned that I’d love to visit, but was nervous due to violence/terrorism. She just snorted and said she felt the same way about coming to the US. We both realized that our fears were blown way out of proportion due to media sensationalism. Anyway, the streets are fine.

Now, think again about what media says about the Chinese government.

Also take into consideration that the biggest anti-China propaganda is coming from the one country which is afraid of being overtaken as the world's biggest economy by China.

China doesn't seem to be a big problem in any other country across the globe. Strange. It's also quite funny how so many more countries in the world are afraid of the USA, particularly those with oil reserves and other natural resources.

Re: China passes Hong Kong “patriot” election law

#112

Post by anvandare »

ekianjo wrote: post #28
sterlind wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan will be a bigger deal geopolitically. PRC has no claim to Taiwan that's recognized by the broader international community (outside China's sphere of influence, anyway.) Under Westphalian rules Hong Kong is seen as an internal matter, but Taiwan would be a straight-up war. Plus it would absolutely wreck the semiconductor industry worldwide to lose TSMC.

> Taiwan would be a straight-up war That will be shortest war ever. If China does an embargo on Taiwan and encircles it, there's nothing that Taiwan could do in the long run. They will be forced to negotiate. And you can bet the US has no intention to intervene.

>And you can bet the US has no intention to intervene.

The most absolutely do. They might not want to, but they have no choice. Taiwan is a shackle in a long chain:

From South Korea, across the Korean strait, to Japan.

From Japan, along the Ryukyu islands to Taiwan.

From Taiwan, across the Luzon strait, to the Philippines.

From there to Malaysia (and Singapore) and Indonesia.

Almost nowhere along this 4000 mile chain is there a gap wider than 100 miles.

It is this chain which keeps China from freely accessing the Pacific Ocean.

If China could break through they would have unlimited access to the Pacific. And from there to the rest of the world. That is an existential threat to the USA.

That is why China wants Taiwan. That is why the US can not allow China to take Taiwan. Both sides know this.

So yes, China could most likely take Taiwan through war (albeit it at a high cost). But wars are not over when one side says it's over. The USA would absolutely carry on a multi-year war to regain Taiwan. They would much rather fight the PLAN five miles off Taipei than fight it five miles off Honolulu or San Francisco.

Re: China passes Hong Kong “patriot” election law

#114

Post by quink »

dustinmoris wrote: post #104
fractallyte wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ugh, please! If this ( https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55794071 ) is not a definition of evil, I don't know what is. Heinous crimes that go all the way to the CCP top .

[flagged]

I think you're in the wrong thread? This is pretty off-topic?

This article is about China. If you're looking for one about Iraq, for example, there's plenty: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

Unless your intent was to do nothing but shout "А у вас негров линчуют" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/And_you_are_lynching_Negroes

The link and its content are meant to be the overall topic.

Re: China passes Hong Kong “patriot” election law

#115

Post by rado »

dustinmoris wrote: post #91
alau1218 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The liberal open Hong Kong we used to know has died in 2020, the year they passed the national security law. Elites and professionals in Hong Kong are thinking where to move their families to and those chose to stay have to accept they are now no difference than an ordinary mainland Chinese citizen. CCP did not and will not keep any of their promises. All the Sino-UK agreement and the promise of 'One country Two syst…

Why is the CCP "evil"? What have they done? You might disagree with the philosophy of their political party, but they are not invading other countries like we do, they don't torture innocent people who have never had a trial on Guantanamo Bay, they don't send drones over innocent villages ripping children and women into pieces over false claims of mass destruction weapons, they don't write offensive tweets like Ameri…

Because Western propaganda. Just check the headlines, it's a relentless attack.

Re: China passes Hong Kong “patriot” election law

#116

Post by christophilus »

audunw wrote: post #107
ekianjo wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taiwan would be a straight-up war That will be shortest war ever. If China does an embargo on Taiwan and encircles it, there's nothing that Taiwan could do in the long run. They will be forced to negotiate. And you can bet the US has no intention to intervene.

It would most likely not be a very short war if the people of Taiwan are serious about their independence. What's an embargo really going to do? Piss off the whole world and create a shitload of sanctions on China. Taiwan is not a city state. They'd be devastated economically, but they'd survive for a good while. Taiwan is now building their own long range missiles to enable them to counter-attack strategic locations…

You’ve summed it up well. But, I still think Taiwan is next. China has been getting more and more aggressive there. A friend of mine lives in Taiwan, and told me that the Chinese have sent fighter jets deeper and deeper into the island’s airspace of late.

The US will make a lot of noise, but I’m going to say there’d be no hot war between the US and China.

Also, I suspect the PRC will do a fair bit of soft work before making that move. You’ll see pro PRC activism rise in Taiwan so that an invasion no longer seems so black and white.

Now, if China ever made a move on Japan, things would be different. But I don’t see that happening. Once China has Taiwan, they control the waters in that area, and there is no need to invade Japan. Japan would basically have to comply with China at that point.

From there, China just does their thing, expanding their sphere of influence, etc, taking over small targets that won’t raise too much ire from the rest of the world.

Anyway, if we’re making predictions, that’s my current one.

Re: China passes Hong Kong “patriot” election law

#117

Post by Stevvo »

ChemSpider wrote: post #89
Stevvo wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have asked many people in those regions excluding Xinjiang, and the answers are never as black and white as the narratives you read online. In Tibet, people were not too happy about the military presence on the streets, the cultural assimilation or the mao statue in the shadow of Potala palace, but on balance are were happy to be part of China due to the economic development. People felt they would be unemployed wi…

Well, if you are correct, the CCP could/would organize a public vote in Tibet and Hongkong, just like France did in New Caledonia. That is how you handle such a question. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Caledonian_independen...

I'm just reporting some anecdotes from my personal experience that I thought were relevant to the discussion. I don't see how that can be "correct" or not.

I agree with you on the principle of the right to self-determination, but it's not so clearly defined. I.e. how do you define "peoples'? I can't succeed from my nation just because me and my family would like to start a principality. At what point does a group become a 'people' deserving of the right to self-determination?

Re: China passes Hong Kong “patriot” election law

#118

Post by christophilus »

shanghaikid wrote: post #84
L-four wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China/CCP isn't exactly friendly to foreigners. It's near impossible to become a Chinese citizen.

You can travel there, talk to people, look use your own eyes.

I’ve been there and looked with my own eyes. The PRC is a menace.

Re: China passes Hong Kong “patriot” election law

#119

Post by quink »

audunw wrote: post #107
ekianjo wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taiwan would be a straight-up war That will be shortest war ever. If China does an embargo on Taiwan and encircles it, there's nothing that Taiwan could do in the long run. They will be forced to negotiate. And you can bet the US has no intention to intervene.

It would most likely not be a very short war if the people of Taiwan are serious about their independence. What's an embargo really going to do? Piss off the whole world and create a shitload of sanctions on China. Taiwan is not a city state. They'd be devastated economically, but they'd survive for a good while. Taiwan is now building their own long range missiles to enable them to counter-attack strategic locations…

China is a pretty soft target with things like the Three Gorges Dam.

The 1938 Yellow River flood is taught as one of the great crimes of the KMT and is in the consciousness of most of the mainland Chinese as one of the unforgivable crimes of the KMT. It's in fact one of the big ways in which the CCP took control.

They also know it can happen again, with the Three Gorges Dam or some other infrastructure and the KMT has very little to lose, it's already taken the reputational hit for decades and independent Taiwan will do it as required for self-preservation - they're not internationally recognised so any prosecution for war crimes is likely to be irrelevant. Beyond being cancelled out by China's aggression in such a scenario in itself anyway.

Re: China passes Hong Kong “patriot” election law

#120

Post by dsq »

mimikatz wrote: post #67

America should allow open immigration from Hong Kong for a year. China by all rights has a claim to the land. But the people who want freedom should have it and we should take them in.

People vote with their feet. Look where they go, or want to go. This has been true throughout history, from pogroms, through Iron Curtains, and including south-to-north. See this flow, it cuts through the b-s. All else is disinformation fog.
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