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U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

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Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#231

Post by logotype »

dirtyid wrote: post #185
summerlight wrote: post #137

Let's assess its feasibility first. In the point of the China military view, a significant portion of the Taiwan island occupation must be done before the US intervention. And their limited amphibious attack capability complicates the problem. Taiwan has 200k standing army and 250k more reserve forces, thus China probably needs to deploy at least 500k, preferably more than 1M of its army into Taiwan within a week or…

PRC will face the 7th fleet and more regardless, that's the default expectation and pretty much the singular vision shaping Chinese military modernization. Everything is oriented towards sufficiently confronting USN far out in SCS / Malacca - far away from Taiwan, preferably in enough numbers to deter actual battle or blockade. Taiwan itself has little baring on SCS security. It will be mostly peer affair between Chi…

Warning: account affiliated with the CCP.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#232

Post by dang »

dirtyid wrote: post #206
beloch wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Article 8 is a doozy. I was ignorant of it. From the sounds of it, Taiwan doesn't want to declare its independence nor signal there is no hope of peaceful reunification with mainland China because either of these would trigger an attack mandated by PRC law. It really does seem as though Taiwan is between a rock and a hard place here. To gain formal status as a country and enter formal mutual defence treaties, they'd…

PRC/ROC dynamic is formally an unfinished civil war, it's diplomatically a domestic issue between two governments representing one China, where recognition is mutually exclusive. The current peace / détente is held together by a bunch of incongruous agreements, i.e. article 8 & 92 consensus between PRC/ROC, three communiqués between PRC/US, TW relations act between ROC/US to make the current arrangement somewhat work…

Did you see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26569477? If you continue to ignore our repeated requests we are going to have to ban you. I don't believe that you're posting in bad faith but you're abusing the site by violating its intended purpose this badly.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#233

Post by dirtyid »

dang wrote: post #232
dirtyid wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

PRC/ROC dynamic is formally an unfinished civil war, it's diplomatically a domestic issue between two governments representing one China, where recognition is mutually exclusive. The current peace / détente is held together by a bunch of incongruous agreements, i.e. article 8 & 92 consensus between PRC/ROC, three communiqués between PRC/US, TW relations act between ROC/US to make the current arrangement somewhat work…

Did you see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26569477 ? If you continue to ignore our repeated requests we are going to have to ban you. I don't believe that you're posting in bad faith but you're abusing the site by violating its intended purpose this badly.

I forgot about it and just found opportunity to read it in full. My tone in referenced reply was uncalled for. I would edit for civility if I could. I'll filter my posts on topic for pejorative language in the future. I appreciate the the effort you put into explanation. By abuse, do you mean focus on one flamewar topic? I engage in topics I'm well read on, or rather I get engaged on topics where I have dissenting opinion. Most of my comments on other topics typically don't get any replies so I find most of my followups / replies to centre around Chinese topics. I will incorporate your two guidelines going forward to avoid engaging in ways that bias towards flamewar.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#234

Post by shp0ngle »

ddevault wrote: post #126
PureParadigm wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currently the US is not choosing either of these because they both have downsides. In (1), this may embolden Taiwan to take risky and provocative actions such as declaring themselves an independent country. (2) is obviously not in US interests. Instead, the current US position is strategic ambiguity. It is clear there is probably a line somewhere after which the US will intervene, but it is not clear to either side w…

Taiwan already officially considers itself an independent country, and maintains a large, sophisticated military for the purpose of defending this status.

Not really. Taiwan officially calls itself "Republic of China" and awkwardly claims that they actually own China mainland. (Since the time of Chiang Kai Shek.)

This position is (also awkwardly) preferable to People's Republic of China, since they see it as better negotiating position for reunification, rather than Taiwan independence.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#235

Post by mlindner »

xtian wrote: post #217
mlindner wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For the record, the US imprisons its ethnic minorities in inhumane conditions (including labor camps and forced sterilization, just like China) at a per-capita rate 17x higher than China does. LOL!!!! We imprison people of ANY ethnicity who commit crimes. Some prisons have ways where the people there can earn wages through work, though most don't. You can maybe stretch the definition of what "labor camp" means to i…

> And we DEFINITELY do not do forced sterilization rofl. No? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugenics_Board_of_North_Caro... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuskegee_Syphilis_Study

I used current tense. Not past tense. There was all sorts of weird stuff that happened around the time of Nazism in Germany, including strong proponents of Nazism in the US at that time. Lest we not forget the internment of Americans of Japanese descent civilians during WW2. Again, these are unfortunate things that happened in the past.

None of that justifies any other country doing anything in modern day. It's like saying "Oh Germany had Nazis during WW2 so having Nazis today is okay."

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#236

Post by xtian »

mlindner wrote: post #235
xtian wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And we DEFINITELY do not do forced sterilization rofl. No? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugenics_Board_of_North_Caro... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuskegee_Syphilis_Study

I used current tense. Not past tense. There was all sorts of weird stuff that happened around the time of Nazism in Germany, including strong proponents of Nazism in the US at that time. Lest we not forget the internment of Americans of Japanese descent civilians during WW2. Again, these are unfortunate things that happened in the past. None of that justifies any other country doing anything in modern day. It's like…

There have been accusations that ICE has performed forced sterilizations, but for now it remains at the level of conspiracy theory. It's easy to talk about how "unfortunate" US atrocities were and insist they're "in the past" after the cover-up campaigns have successfully concluded. But why would these institutions change when they succeeded at their aims and no one was ever held accountable? Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo Bay are not in the distant past.
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