221–230 of 236 posts
Now is the most favorable time for China to strike. With everyone reeling from the pandemic, a centralized government can temporarily move faster than everyone else and consolidate faster than everyone else. A chance like this won't come again, so I'd be pretty surprised if they didn't make their move this year.
This would be an exceptionally impatient move. If China’s economic machine continues to grow + mainland culture becomes more appealing, I could see Taiwan wanting to reunite in a few decades. It’s the same situation with Hong Kong. Had they initiated the changeover more slowly, there would be far less resistance. Instead, they ignited a movement that will probably never go away. Xi’s downfall will be his inability to…
He is 67. His time is limited.
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I think you'd be hard pressed to find even a "bunch" of people in Taiwan who want to be under Beijing's rule, or would even consider that a tolerable compromise position. Certainly the country is far from unified on the idea of independence (though that particular movement has gotten stronger over the past couple decades), but culturally and politically, China and Taiwan are quite different and incompatible.
From my second hand laymen sources, there are in fact pro China advocates in Tiawan. Also surprisingly enough, there was a sizable loyalist group in the American 13 colonies who supported continued British colonialism.
And that's also a point to consider: there are some people in Taiwan who want to reunify, but not anywhere near under the terms Beijing would impose. You could call those people "pro unification", but they're very very different from people who would accept Chinese rule as it is now.
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>"That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested." I, like any sane person, would like to avoid WWIII. It's easy to play armchair general with no skin in the game. But the reality is that there would be no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan. Let alone the nuclear ramifications. If Beijing decides to take it, we will sit here and watch. The same way we do currently as…
Well, to take TW, Mainland must send navy, which is easily intercepted by US. The island isn’t actually that close to the mainland. This is different from the human rights issues in China where the PLA is already there. Call me optimistic, but the mere risk of US involvement is enough to deter a military takeover.
Taiwan is a little over 100km off the coast of mainland China. That's nothing, and the Chinese navy could easily get there without any interference from anyone.
They wouldn't even have to; if they just wanted to cause damage, they could start firing missiles from the mainland without sending any ships or planes.
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The solution is simple, give Taiwan nukes.
Do you remember the Cuban Missile Crisis? As that's exactly the Cuban Missile Crisis. I think giving Taiwan nukes would force them to invade rather than risk being attacked with nukes.
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Not recognizing Taiwan makes a lot of sense when you wish not to cause an escalation that could lead to an invasion of Taiwan, this is why Taiwan itself has never declared independence, something most people forget.
There are people in Taiwan who agree with the "one China" policy, and claim that the government of Taiwan is the ruler of that one China. Declaring independence means renouncing their claim on the rest of China. Now, in the real world, that claim plus six bucks will get you a latte at Starbucks. But politically, letting go of it might cost more than any political party is willing to pay. Thus both sides of the straig…
A quick look at Wikipedia suggests that (as of 2019), about 49% of citizens supported independence (though 21% believes that now is not the time due to the political climate), with 31% supporting the status quo. Only 10.3% outright support reunification.
In 2020, support for independence increased, to 54%, though support for reunification also increased to 12.5%.
I think it's pretty safe to say that an overwhelming majority of people in Taiwan do not actively want reunification with China. The DPP has never held that position, and the KMT dropping it would surely splinter their supporters[0], though possibly not a majority of them. Obviously on the PRC side of the equation, allowing Taiwan its independence is a non-starter.
[0] Anecdotally, it does seem that KMT support skews older, so I expect new and future generations to continue to lean more toward independence.
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If the US "fears" retaliation from red china, why are they selling weapons to the republic? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipme...
Heavily armed Taiwan can make China think twice before launching full scale attack. The US also makes money on those arms sales. And Taiwan can keep producing chips. And sell some of those chips to China for mutual benefit. Win win so far. However if for whatever reasons China would go full scale on Taiwan I doubt the US would respond in kind. There is just too much risk of conflict turning into WWIII. The West may t…
More likely the US (and West) would attempt to punish China economically for its behavior, though I have a hard time believing that would work either. Even if an agreement is later reached and sanctions lifted, I doubt Taiwanese independence would be a part of that.
Unless there is a huge shift in sentiment toward Taiwan in China's leadership, I am really afraid that it's inevitable that Taiwan ends up being taken by force at some point in the not-too-distant future.
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> For the record, the US imprisons its ethnic minorities in inhumane conditions (including labor camps and forced sterilization, just like China) at a per-capita rate 17x higher than China does. LOL!!!! We imprison people of ANY ethnicity who commit crimes. Some prisons have ways where the people there can earn wages through work, though most don't. You can maybe stretch the definition of what "labor camp" means to i…
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news: https://talkpoverty.org/2017/08/23/u-s-still-forcibly-steril... https://www.vice.com/en/article/93578d/staggering-number-of-... https://www.thedailybeast.com/not-just-ice-a-california-pris... Those wages you are thinking of? Frequently they are well under one dollar per hour, sometimes as low as two cents per hour, and pay of any kind is not legally required: https://www.theatlanti…
So all ethnicities are the same, especially in terms of aggression and compliance, and it's law enforcement that makes all the difference?
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Sorry to be the bearer of bad news: https://talkpoverty.org/2017/08/23/u-s-still-forcibly-steril... https://www.vice.com/en/article/93578d/staggering-number-of-... https://www.thedailybeast.com/not-just-ice-a-california-pris... Those wages you are thinking of? Frequently they are well under one dollar per hour, sometimes as low as two cents per hour, and pay of any kind is not legally required: https://www.theatlanti…
"If they did, the number of people of different ethnicities imprisoned would roughly match the distribution of ethnicities in US society. They do not." So all ethnicities are the same, especially in terms of aggression and compliance, and it's law enforcement that makes all the difference?
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Article 8 is a doozy. I was ignorant of it. From the sounds of it, Taiwan doesn't want to declare its independence nor signal there is no hope of peaceful reunification with mainland China because either of these would trigger an attack mandated by PRC law. It really does seem as though Taiwan is between a rock and a hard place here. To gain formal status as a country and enter formal mutual defence treaties, they'd…
PRC/ROC dynamic is formally an unfinished civil war, it's diplomatically a domestic issue between two governments representing one China, where recognition is mutually exclusive. The current peace / détente is held together by a bunch of incongruous agreements, i.e. article 8 & 92 consensus between PRC/ROC, three communiqués between PRC/US, TW relations act between ROC/US to make the current arrangement somewhat work…