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The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

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Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nobody ever dismissed it. You must've missed out on previous HN discussions. I remember these guys in particular being paraded around: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBQplOe8-LE I did find their tone quite dismissive, and the verdict in the title leaves little room for interpretation. > What was dangerous was pointing the finger at China and saying “this is all their fault!” without any evidence. True, but that's…

I think a lot of the confusion, based on the responses to my comment, is separating the idea that the virus was CREATED in a lab from it being accidentally released from the lab. The former implies intent and carries a lot of secondary implications about bioweapons and political maneuverings. It is a hefty claim. The latter is simpler—it is reasonable to think a lab that maintains and studies viruses similar to Covid…

> The former implies intent...

It doesn't imply intent to use as a bioweapon, much less release it in their own population.

The hypothesis that this was a gain-of-function experiment that went awry due to lax security still does put a lot of pressure on Chinese authorities, on top of the poor handling at the beginning of the outbreak.

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#53
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They absolutely did. See this NYT article. Ben Thompson of Stratechery discussed it in an excellent article linked below. Key excerpt from the NYT piece. Doesn’t get more official than that: > Hoaxes, lies and collective delusions aren’t new, but the extent to which millions of Americans have embraced them may be. Thirty percent of Republicans have a favorable view of QAnon, according to a recent YouGov poll. Accordi…

That is addressing the theory that the virus was manufactured in a lab, i.e with the intent to release. Not the idea that it was released accidentally. It is very different.

Do you just assume without clicking that every rebuttal to your point must be only addressing deliberate, malicious dissemination of the virus? I even went out of my way to quote the relevant parts of it here so you could immediately see the lack of "intent" without clicking:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26610037

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not addressing the same claim though. That was refuting the theory that people were spreading about it being genetically engineered to be infectious towards humans.

> ...it being genetically engineered to be infectious towards humans That's literally what a gain-of-function experiment is. These are done to study how viruses interact with humans so that we can deal with them better. There's nothing sinister about it, such experiments are happening all over the world and they did happen in Wuhan.

Maybe it's time for us to realize that some "gain of function" research can be weaponized and made sinister.

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#55

Obviously not. It's some random wild animal population of an unknown species, living near a bat cave in rural China.

So this particularly odd strain came from caves 900km away and settled next to a virology institute which has been studying coronaviruses for the last 15 years? Are you a betting man? If you think about it the alternative(it came from nature) is arguably much more worrying. Does it matter? Not that much. It'd just put an end to the research. This field of study has been criticized forever for this exact reason and the fact that its basically fancy chemical warfare being sold as research for medicine. Did China let it loose on purpose? Of course not, it wouldn't have come from China. Does no one remember SARS escaped twice?

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#56
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They absolutely did. See this NYT article. Ben Thompson of Stratechery discussed it in an excellent article linked below. Key excerpt from the NYT piece. Doesn’t get more official than that: > Hoaxes, lies and collective delusions aren’t new, but the extent to which millions of Americans have embraced them may be. Thirty percent of Republicans have a favorable view of QAnon, according to a recent YouGov poll. Accordi…

That is addressing the theory that the virus was manufactured in a lab, i.e with the intent to release. Not the idea that it was released accidentally. It is very different.

The quote doesn’t say “with intent to release”. You’re writing that in. I’ll quote Thompson on ‘manufacture’

> Wait, what was that last one? “The baseless theory that COVID-19 was manufactured in a Chinese lab”? I feel pretty certain that COVID-19 wasn’t deliberately manufactured and deployed as some sort of biological attack, but where does “gain-of-function” experiments end and “manufacturing” begin? Even if it ends up being true that the lab-leak hypothesis is wrong there is actually zero question that the Wuhan lab was manipulating coronaviruses to make them more lethal. To that end, the primary evidence we have that the lab-leak hypothesis is false is that China says it is false.

This gives a new perspective to Roose’s recommendations (well technically, the recommendation of the experts he consulted, which all happen to align with Roose’s previously stated beliefs) that the Biden administration set up a “truth commission”, appoint a “reality czar”, audit tech company algorithms, and “fix people’s problems” with a social stimulus.

The lab was doing gain of function experiments, which most people would agree would constitute “being made in a lab”.

I don’t necessarily think the lab leak hypothesis is the truth, but it certainly is a real possibility. And if it was an accidental leak then it would very likely have been a virus modified via gain of function.

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#57
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Accidental lab escape, or premeditated lab escape? Edit: Because the former doesn't sound like much of a conspiracy, aside from a cover-up afterwards.

Most likely accidental if it was premeditated all out global bio-weapon war would happen. Just like assassination of Austro-Hungarian heir Archduke Franz Ferdinand brought domino effect and caused First World war the same would happen now.

Oh, one more thing. If you were in charge and your choices were "Start WW3 with tens of millions of US Casualties" or "ignore the fact that the enemy just killed 400,000 people" what the heck would you do?

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#59
> “If this is a man-made catastrophe,” says Miles Yu, an analyst with the conservative Hudson Institute, “I think the world should seek reparations.”

That would open an interesting can of worms.

1. It is common under many (most?) legal systems for those harmed by another's negligence to have a duty to mitigate damages.

For example, if I'm burning something on my property and an ember from my fire sets something on fire on your property, which you see happen, and you could put the fire out before it causes much damage easily with your garden hose but instead just watch it burn, I'm probably only going to by liable for that portion of the damage that would have happened had you used the hose.

A few governments could make a case for full reparations, such as South Korea, Vietnam, and a few others. The US, most of Europe, and much of South America, on the other hand, would have a hard time arguing that most of their harm, especially after the first wave, was not due to their own poor handling of the pandemic.

2. If the release was accidental but not negligent, the "Act of God" principle may apply.

That principle is that some failures are just expected in the course of some activity that is commonly done, and if the failure is not caused by negligence it is written off as an act of God, and it is up the victim to deal with.

For example, my neighbor has several 100 ft (30 m) tall trees that when I look at them from my back door I have to look up at a 60 degree angle to see their tops, which means that they are much closer than 100 ft (30 m) from my house.. If one of those trees fell over in my direction the damage to my house (and me depending on where I was at the time) would be extensive.

Whether my neighbor would pay for that damage or I would depends on the health of the tree. If the tree was dying or dead then the neighbor would be liable. They are supposed to watch for those things and have such trees safely removed. If the tree was healthy and just caught a bad break with the wind then I have to deal with it. An act of God brought it down and it is my problem.

Several countries operate labs working with potential pandemic causing viruses. Accidents have happened before, and will happen again, but they all continue operating those labs. They know at the time they build these labs that these accidents happen even in the best run labs, they calculate about how often they will happen, and decide that the benefits (often military benefits) are worth it in the long run.

I could see a country that has one of those accidents argue that at least in relation to other countries that also run such labs that their release was one of those "normal" accidents, not a negligent accident, and so each country that itself runs such labs is responsible for handling its own damages.

3. Some of the countries that would most like to receive reparations also do or have done things that have caused widespread harm outside their countries, which one might argue should lead to reparations. It may be hard to find a way to set the boundary on what should or should not require reparations that has COVID on the "yes" side and the things that they have done on the "no" side. They may decide it is better to keep the lid firmly on that Pandora's box.

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