Earlier quoted context omitted.
Declining economy? It's going to decline itself to 1st place by 2030.
Not so fast. China managing 1st place isn’t a foregone conclusion. Ill blame those pesky demographic trends first.
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China boycotts Western clothes brands over Xinjiang cotton
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Re: China boycotts Western clothes brands over Xinjiang cotton
#32With regards to Xinjiang sanctions, China has also - sanctioned US/Canadian/UK/EU individuals and entities - erased H&M in all major Chinese platforms https://wwd.com/business-news/retail/hm-face-new-boycott-chi... While that's happening, China has also - signed a 25-year cooperation agreement with Iran - censored 'stock market' term from social media searches after stocks posted longest losing streak https://markets…
Declining economy? It's going to decline itself to 1st place by 2030.
Ya, its just like what everyone said about Japan’s growth trajectory in the 1980s. Similar predictions even.
Re: China boycotts Western clothes brands over Xinjiang cotton
#33With regards to Xinjiang sanctions, China has also - sanctioned US/Canadian/UK/EU individuals and entities - erased H&M in all major Chinese platforms https://wwd.com/business-news/retail/hm-face-new-boycott-chi... While that's happening, China has also - signed a 25-year cooperation agreement with Iran - censored 'stock market' term from social media searches after stocks posted longest losing streak https://markets…
Declining economy? It's going to decline itself to 1st place by 2030.
Did you know that the GDP of Africa is two trillion dollars (PPP)? So Africa has surpassed Canada, right?
What matters is GDP/capita, not total output in a nation of 1.4 Billion people. You can easily get "first place" by redrawing boundaries around a bunch of poor and middle income nations. That redraw doesn't make anyone better off.
Re: China boycotts Western clothes brands over Xinjiang cotton
#34With regards to Xinjiang sanctions, China has also - sanctioned US/Canadian/UK/EU individuals and entities - erased H&M in all major Chinese platforms https://wwd.com/business-news/retail/hm-face-new-boycott-chi... While that's happening, China has also - signed a 25-year cooperation agreement with Iran - censored 'stock market' term from social media searches after stocks posted longest losing streak https://markets…
This tweet by Xinhua (state media) gave the same impression. It's bizarre: https://twitter.com/xhnews/status/1375271937442603012
Re: China boycotts Western clothes brands over Xinjiang cotton
#35With regards to Xinjiang sanctions, China has also - sanctioned US/Canadian/UK/EU individuals and entities - erased H&M in all major Chinese platforms https://wwd.com/business-news/retail/hm-face-new-boycott-chi... While that's happening, China has also - signed a 25-year cooperation agreement with Iran - censored 'stock market' term from social media searches after stocks posted longest losing streak https://markets…
This reads like something I would have written in high school and haven't quite figured out how the world works yet
Re: China boycotts Western clothes brands over Xinjiang cotton
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your take is interesting: 1. Hasn’t China’s economy been growing steadily for decades? 2. Hasn’t China formed new trading partnerships with many countries in Europe? 3. China is not a dictatorship.
> Hasn’t China’s economy been growing steadily for decades? Not steadily - but geometrically (if not near-exponentially). Rapid expansion is not sustainable. I compare China's growth from the 1970s through to the early-2000s to the US's postwar boom years: eventually things settle-down. I suspect the people at the top (whether in the CCP, private business interests, whereever) are uncomfortably having to acclimatize…
> You're technically correct - but consider that China is simply too big to be run as a dictatorship, and the CCP do not act in the interests of their citizens' human rights and individual freedoms.
Ya, it’s more like a family dictatorship where economic and political power is concentrated in the hand of a few “red” families. That they made that obvious with Xi is interesting.
Re: China boycotts Western clothes brands over Xinjiang cotton
#37Chinese here. I want to share two things: * People's reactions to BCI in China are divided by ages -- younger Chinese prefer goods from companies kind to China. * Western people's ideas about China are also divided by ages -- you have to refresh your view about the world after 18 months. Growth means everything. The American people should control covid-19 as quick as possible -- make US a qualified competitor to Chin…
The US is on track to be fully vaccinated before many other countries except small ones.
And the US is already a competitor to China, to think otherwise is delusional. No matter how you slice it:
1) more tighter alliances, 800 military bases around the world vs 3 for China. These are diplomatic encirclements, including South East Asia.
2) dollar as world reserve currency
3) most of the top internet brands, aerospace companies, EV, etc
4) Top silicon (eg Apple, AMD, NVIDIA, etc)
I mean, if you look at high value industry vs low, China is the country catching up, not the one leading.
And without innovative companies like Foxconn and joint ventures from foreign countries where would they be in the pecking order?
Yes they’ve made absolutely astounding progress over the last 20 years, but I think it is going to some people’s heads and they need to cool the chest beating Wolf Warrior nationalism stuff for a bit. Their GDP per capita PPP is still 1/6th of the US.
In the 80s there was much lament over how Japan was making everything, and how they were going to surpass the US. And then came the Lost Generation, we know how that turned out. Cheap labor manufacturing is a temporary comparative advantage, one that moves to Vietnam, India, or Brazil soon. And eventually, with 3D printing, robotics, and other automation, a lot of the advantage will disappear.
Silicon Fabs for example, can be built anywhere, as they're almost 100% automated. The crucial limiting factor these days is often lithography tools and capital. So for example, Xi Jinping's 5 year plant isn't likely to give them EUV lithography fabs if ASML decides not to sell them any IP. There's no real competitive advantage to Mainland China except ignoring environmental laws, but at the same time, there's a lot of risk, so who wants to commit $10 billion in capital given the political risks of a capricious and non-transparent government who often ignores the rule of law.
Re: China boycotts Western clothes brands over Xinjiang cotton
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
What's the practical difference? You get disappeared if you say anything bad about the government. There are no term limits for the head of state. While "dictatorship" is the wrong word, I think people are right to evoke the comparison.
Are you saying an authoritarian government and a dictatorship are the same type of government? I mean they’re literally different things. You wouldn’t call China a monarchy even though a monarch can do similar things to a dictator, right? If the goal is to say China is bad let’s just say that - let’s not misrepresent their form of government. I don’t understand the relevance of the lack of term limits. Does not havin…
Nobody cares what you call it whether dictatorship, authoritarian or most democratic country ever.
Parent says “you get dissappeared if you say anything about government”. When that is true, we call it dictatorship. Terminology does not matter. We are talking about practical results of it.
Re: China boycotts Western clothes brands over Xinjiang cotton
#39Chinese here. I want to share two things: * People's reactions to BCI in China are divided by ages -- younger Chinese prefer goods from companies kind to China. * Western people's ideas about China are also divided by ages -- you have to refresh your view about the world after 18 months. Growth means everything. The American people should control covid-19 as quick as possible -- make US a qualified competitor to Chin…
By chinese, do you also mean you're living in china? (I'm taiwanese/chinese american.) Would be interesting to get boots on the ground insights on the peoples' views.
First point implies younger chinese seem to have more national pride? I saw a few videos where it's not too weird for young people to wear traditional chinese clothing in public anymore.
What do people think about the accusations regarding Xinjiang?
Re: China boycotts Western clothes brands over Xinjiang cotton
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Hasn’t China’s economy been growing steadily for decades? Fake GDP #s, especially since 2010. CCP does NOT have a growth goal in the recent five year plan, meaning they can't fake increasing defaults and can't increase construction spendings anymore due to ballooning debt. > Hasn’t China formed new trading partnerships with many countries in Europe? First time in 30 years EU has sanctioned China. The CAI deal (Euro…
If you think China’s growth is fake then I don’t know what to tell you. I invite you to talk to people who lived in China in the early 2000s and live there now. > It is. Please read up on Xi Jing Ping's personality, his success on removing most of his enemies and secure his power, and changing the law for unlimited terms How much do you know about Chinese politics? Xi Jing Pings power isn’t as absolute as the America…
I lived in Beijing in 2002 (for 6 months), first visited in 1999 (when north west 4th ring was just a ditch), and then lived in Beijing from 2007 to 2016.
Growth was extraordinary, but there are definitely problems with empty apartments and shopping malls (at least in Beijing). It is difficult to pick out what is real growth and what is simply government driven.
> How much do you know about Chinese politics? Xi Jing Pings power isn’t as absolute as the American media would like you to believe. In fact he’s in a very vulnerable position.
Chinese politics are famously opaque (the national congress is obviously rubber stamp), but I think it’s pretty obvious now that a few red families are calling the shots, and Xi’s power as a princeling is far from illusory as it was with Hu (before I would have said party elders)