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U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

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Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#31

Post by Invictus0 »

pivx2bitcoin wrote: post #8
spamizbad wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but I imagine in such a scenario most of the talent that built that world-class semiconductor manufacturing would be resettled to Western Powers - most likely the United States.

Having the knowhow to build the fabs, and having the fabs, are two different things. Intel has been struggling for a while with their fabs.

When your country becomes a warzone and your workplace becomes a pile of rubble, other countries start to look a lot more attractive. If China tried to take Taiwan, I could see them losing a lot of the brains that built those fabs.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#32

Post by lmilcin »

hawk_ wrote: post #7

If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…

Russia took Crimea even though it was recognized as territory of Ukraine.

No large power recognizes Taiwan as sovereign country, not even US. The largest country that recognizes Taiwan is Guatemala.

I don't see how it is out of the question that China just sails to Taiwan and takes it while everybody else stands and watches.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#33

Post by [deleted] »

Abishek_Muthian wrote: post #6
inetsee wrote: post #2

I would imagine that one of the biggest concerns associated with China taking over Taiwan is that China would gain control over some of the most significant semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the world.

Someone mentioned in an earlier discussion here without sources that the TSMC is rigged to blow in case of such an event.

[deleted]

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#34

Post by Flatcircle »

javert wrote: post #26
aphextron wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Also it's not like Crimea annexation where the aggressor had local support. Although very much like Crimea, there will be practically zero popular appetite for igniting an open war between two nuclear armed nation states. We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution, but I would strongly doubt that military action will be responded to in kind by the west. A much more likely scenario is what we've seen play out in Ho…

> We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested. I hope for either no conflict at all, or for Taiwan's allies to help defend it.

Nuclear powers don't really have kinetic wars. I think the only one that happened was a small skirmish between India and Pakistan in 1999. The Kargil War.

Proxy wars are more likely.

And even more likely than that, would be severe economic sanctions.

Which in this instance would hit home to many more Americans than an actual war.

If the invasion of Taiwan set in motion a series of escalating sanctions and freezes in trade, well that could get much worse than people think.

A chain reaction of unseen consequences.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#35

Post by vehementi »

lmilcin wrote: post #32
hawk_ wrote: post #7

If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…

Russia took Crimea even though it was recognized as territory of Ukraine. No large power recognizes Taiwan as sovereign country, not even US. The largest country that recognizes Taiwan is Guatemala. I don't see how it is out of the question that China just sails to Taiwan and takes it while everybody else stands and watches.

There's recognizing and "recognizing". Everyone knows Taiwan is a separate country. But for political reasons (helping China save face, keep making money from China) they don't openly acknowledge it. It's totally different from Crimea situation.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#36

Post by newbie578 »

Unfortunately, I do not doubt that China will try to take Taiwan, the bigger question is how is the West going to react?

I just hope we are not going to do the detrimental appeasement policy like with letting Hitler take the Sudets.

I do wonder if there is a politician in the west with the stomach to confront CCP.

I just cannot help but congratulate the CCP on their well played long game of chess. China has transformed immensely in the last 40 years, and we got no one to blame but ourselves.

We literally check-mated ourselves. I guess this will go on the long list of Nixon's failure.

The day the west started bowing down to China without setting up rules is the day we lost.

Sometimes I do wonder what would have happened had MacArthur executed his plan...

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#37

Post by kstenerud »

Now is the most favorable time for China to strike. With everyone reeling from the pandemic, a centralized government can temporarily move faster than everyone else and consolidate faster than everyone else. A chance like this won't come again, so I'd be pretty surprised if they didn't make their move this year.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#38

Post by aphextron »

javert wrote: post #26
aphextron wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Also it's not like Crimea annexation where the aggressor had local support. Although very much like Crimea, there will be practically zero popular appetite for igniting an open war between two nuclear armed nation states. We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution, but I would strongly doubt that military action will be responded to in kind by the west. A much more likely scenario is what we've seen play out in Ho…

> We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested. I hope for either no conflict at all, or for Taiwan's allies to help defend it.

>"That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested."

I, like any sane person, would like to avoid WWIII.

It's easy to play armchair general with no skin in the game. But the reality is that there would be no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan. Let alone the nuclear ramifications. If Beijing decides to take it, we will sit here and watch. The same way we do currently as they commit massive genocide in their own country.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#39

Post by ceilingcorner »

lmilcin wrote: post #32
hawk_ wrote: post #7

If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…

Russia took Crimea even though it was recognized as territory of Ukraine. No large power recognizes Taiwan as sovereign country, not even US. The largest country that recognizes Taiwan is Guatemala. I don't see how it is out of the question that China just sails to Taiwan and takes it while everybody else stands and watches.

Very different situation. Just analyze them from a realpolitik perspective and not the “international law” one:

- Crimeans are predominately Russian speakers and so the annexation was somewhat popular. Very little bloodshed or ongoing resistance. An invasion of Taiwan would not be popular among the Taiwanese.

- Crimea and Ukraine are geopolitically not very useful. Taiwan is extremely useful, especially if it allows defense access to e.g. American warships.

- Crimea is mostly a resort economy. Taiwan is the center of chip production.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#40

Post by riku_iki »

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #11
inetsee wrote: post #2

I would imagine that one of the biggest concerns associated with China taking over Taiwan is that China would gain control over some of the most significant semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the world.

That's secondary to me imo. Primarily it would be a bloody conflict with significant loss of life. If China is victorious they would gain control over dirt that the world's best electronics industry used to exist on top of. The whole world loses.

> Primarily it would be a bloody conflict with significant loss of life.

or after initial action, US will refuse actively engage, and Taiwanese government surrender to safe own people lives.

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