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Equivalent of 97% of Scotland’s 2020 electricity consumption was from renewables

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Re: Equivalent of 97% of Scotland’s 2020 electricity consumption was from renewables

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> from the top of my head Charging your electric car battery. BTW, heating/cooling my house is half my energy bill. Time shifting that could easily cut that by a third. All I need to make that work is variable rates. But with fixed 24/7 rates, nobody has any incentive to do that.

How much money do you need to save for the incentive to exceed the effort and discomfort? If you make $50 an hour how much effort will you spend every day to save $50 a month? I am sure the variable rates helped to incentivize people to conserve electricity in Texas recently but that is an extreme case. Electricity infrastructure is capital intensive and long term stable rates are required to finance it.

> long term stable rates are required to finance it.

Gasoline prices vary all over the place, and there's a heluva lot of expensive infrastructure for it.

Re: Equivalent of 97% of Scotland’s 2020 electricity consumption was from renewables

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are involved in (so far as we know) the largest residential V2G trial in the world (certainly, the largest in the UK). Some links: https://www.indra.co.uk/v2v-grid-to-vehicle https://www.ovoenergy.com/electric-cars/vehicle-to-grid-char... https://www.cenex.co.uk/projects-case-studies/sciurus/

OVO Energy that’s the one! Sadly I appear not to be in the pilot area.

The trial included people all over the country. Alas, the original trial is coming to an end, so they haven't been accepting new participants for quite some time.

If you want a V2G, you might try contacting Indra though we really sell more to installers rather than direct to customers. Alternatively, if you have a local(ish) installer that installs Indra's smart chargers, you could try inquiring through them.

I know it is possible to optimise to octopus's tariffs, but I don't know how available that is yet from the commercial side of things (I work on the technical side).

Re: Equivalent of 97% of Scotland’s 2020 electricity consumption was from renewables

#263
post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electricity is less than 20% of the world energy consumption. I find it fascinating that a tech focused forum like HN is so intent on taking an inferior solutions like wind and solar which literally can't provide enough heat for the majority of needs we have, can't scale, requires insane amounts of land, requires complex daisy chains of different solutions to work, isn't reliable, requires absurd amounts of resources…

> Electricity is less than 20% of the world energy consumption. I know. I made implicit reference to that with the 2025/2030 split. > I find it fascinating that a tech focused forum like HN is so intent on taking an inferior solutions like wind and solar which… Has it occurred to you that you might be… wrong? I mean, when I find myself disagreeing with a lot of smart people, I do ask myself that question. I could go…

what exactly would i be wrong about? I am open to a persuasive argument. Dropping calculations based on speculations not even factoring everything in isnt one of them.

Re: Equivalent of 97% of Scotland’s 2020 electricity consumption was from renewables

#264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> heating/cooling my house is half my energy bill. Time shifting that could easily cut that by a third. All I need to make that work is variable rates. This isn't as simple as you make it sound. You can't just cool your house once when electricity is cheap and then have it stay cool all day. Keeping your house at a different temperature than outside is a constant, active process. There are industrial systems that "st…

> This isn't as simple as you make it sound. It is. There is no single comfortable temperature, it's a range. The first step is when electricity is cheap, cool the house to the low end of the range. The next step is to cool a tank of water. People already have a hot water tank, it doesn't seem like much of an engineering or cost challenge to have a cold water tank, and using that to cool air. A further step is to inc…

I agree it's not _hard_, but your original assertion was "All I need to make that work is variable rates". Now, you're talking about installing additional HVAC equipment and spending $$$.

In the summer, even if you cool your house down to 60F, it'll be back to 70F in a couple hours max. Electricity rates from renewable overproduction do not vary on the timescale of hours. It's not a solution without new equipment to "store" the hot or cold that you produce when electricity is cheap.

Re: Equivalent of 97% of Scotland’s 2020 electricity consumption was from renewables

#265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much would you have to save? For me it is thousands I can’t be bothered to delay kids bath times to save five bucks!

My parents in 1988 put their water heater on an overnight mode. Even with 4 kids taking baths we ran out of hot water twice that I remember (so about once every 5 years), and I can assure you as kid we weren't worried about conservation. 200 gallons (800 liters) of storage turns out to be plenty for all the baths people take in a day. I know my parents got half price electric for water heating, but I don't know how m…

A 60 gallon tank is considered large around here, so no wonder you had a 200 gal tank if it only heated at night!

Re: Equivalent of 97% of Scotland’s 2020 electricity consumption was from renewables

#266
post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Electricity is less than 20% of the world energy consumption. I know. I made implicit reference to that with the 2025/2030 split. > I find it fascinating that a tech focused forum like HN is so intent on taking an inferior solutions like wind and solar which… Has it occurred to you that you might be… wrong? I mean, when I find myself disagreeing with a lot of smart people, I do ask myself that question. I could go…

what exactly would i be wrong about? I am open to a persuasive argument. Dropping calculations based on speculations not even factoring everything in isnt one of them.

> what exactly would i be wrong about?

Everything. Literally everything.

> wind and solar which literally can't provide enough heat for the majority of needs we have

Almost all heat on Earth is solar in origin, including the majority that we don’t use.

> can't scale

Scales up to Kardashev III.

> requires insane amounts of land

Only looks like lots of land because there’s 7 billion people.

15TW all-source power use * 1kW/m^2 * 20% cell efficiency * 25% capacity factor = 300,000 square km = 1.7 years of lost rainforest = 38.9 m^2/person = a little more than half my apartment as land area per person.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=15TW%20%2F%28%201kw%2Fm...

Again, that 38.9 m^2/person is for all power — heating and transport, domestic and industrial usage — if you only wanted to deal with electricity you can achieve that just by covering rooftops, while you can cover about 90% of car needs with PV on BEV cars (if you allow them to share, but that’s not difficult, heavy users need to charge just like they already do and light users would want to sell the excess, dismissing this as “complex” would be ridiculous given what cars are), meaning not much extra new land has to be dedicated to PV (or to wind if you want diversity).

The only big things people even need to think about now is stuff like synthetic jet fuel, and even then we already know the chemical reactions, it’s just about commercialising them.

> requires complex daisy chains of different solutions to work

No more complex than anything else in the modern world, therefore calling it complex as a criticism is false.

And further, they’re still incredibly valuable even without batteries.

And they are the only existing long-term solution to our energy needs, given fossil fuels are finite and commercial fusion isn’t actually a thing yet.

> isn't reliable

Can be forecast reliably a week ahead in great detail, and seasonally in broad brushstrokes. We’re not going to be surprised that winter is dark, we can plan around this trivially in much the same way and for much the same reasons that supermarkets don’t get surprised by seasonal demand for ice-cream or raincoats.

> requires absurd amounts of resources

Less than the alternatives, again only looks big because there’s 7 billion people.

> needs backup from oil, coal, gas or nuclear and won't be able to deliver anything even close to useful baseload

Or, as demonstrated, batteries.

You could also do it with a sufficiently large grid, because transmission losses between e.g. Berlin and the Sahara desert are less than the price difference between PV and coal or nuclear.

> and most importantly is so inadequate when it comes to thinking about any future civilisations energy needs both in scale and density

Literally Dyson swarms.

> A forum like this people still clings to these Rube Goldberg constellations and think they are somehow supportiing progress.

“PV + battery” is two items, calling that a Rube Goldberg machine is like dismissing the wheel because you get the most out of it by adding an axel.

Plus I can literally buy USB batteries with PV pre-mounted to them at negligible cost compared to those without PV — the hard stuff has already been done, commercialised, commoditised, and made it to the high street.

> Especially since 3billion people still don't have proper access to energy. Oh well.

PV and wind are the cheapest power sources, so the most capable of improving that.

Re: Equivalent of 97% of Scotland’s 2020 electricity consumption was from renewables

#267
post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what exactly would i be wrong about? I am open to a persuasive argument. Dropping calculations based on speculations not even factoring everything in isnt one of them.

> what exactly would i be wrong about? Everything. Literally everything. > wind and solar which literally can't provide enough heat for the majority of needs we have Almost all heat on Earth is solar in origin, including the majority that we don’t use. > can't scale Scales up to Kardashev III. > requires insane amounts of land Only looks like lots of land because there’s 7 billion people. 15TW all-source power use *…

"Almost all heat on Earth is solar in origin, including the majority that we don’t use."

yes and it's spread out thinly which is why it doesn't kill us.Your solution is to take the least energy dense form and spend material, huge areas of land and money to build a solution that is inferior to all the other solutions.

Scales up to Kardashev III" In theory not in practice. You are speculating not actually proving anything.

"Only looks like lots of land because there’s 7 billion people."

Ehh we are going to be 9 billion. Not sure what exactly you think it proves. You are playing excel sheet scientist not actually proving the application in reality.

"No more complex than anything else in the modern world, therefore calling it complex as a criticism is false."

There is a world of difference between having a nuclear power plant or using oil or gas or coal which all have the energy STORED in themselves vs having to convert thin layers of energy into batteries which again aren't even close to be able to deliver the kind of utility the other sources can.

"Can be forecast reliably a week ahead in great detail"

No it can't and it isn't and will require backup from other sources. Again excel sheet acrobatics isn't really useful here.

"Less than the alternatives, again only looks big because there’s 7 billion people."

We are going to be 9. It's a reality and you aren't actually dealing with it. It's not going to go away.

Batterie are not demonstrated as being a solution by any metric what so ever so no.

You keep comping up with speculative solutions which wont actually work nor solve anything as the grid will never be flexible enough and batteries can't actually deliver what you seem to be dreaming they can.

"Literally Dyson swarms."

Again more speculcation.

Come back when energy from wind and solar is more than 10% of the worlds energy consumption.

"“PV + battery” is two items, calling that a Rube Goldberg machine is like dismissing the wheel because you get the most out of it by adding an axel."

I am not. I am calling all your other solutions to solve the issues with intermittency like grids and weather forcasting PLUS batteries plus storing of energy in batteries and PV for rube goldberg machines.

Re: Equivalent of 97% of Scotland’s 2020 electricity consumption was from renewables

#268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This isn't as simple as you make it sound. It is. There is no single comfortable temperature, it's a range. The first step is when electricity is cheap, cool the house to the low end of the range. The next step is to cool a tank of water. People already have a hot water tank, it doesn't seem like much of an engineering or cost challenge to have a cold water tank, and using that to cool air. A further step is to inc…

I agree it's not _hard_, but your original assertion was "All I need to make that work is variable rates". Now, you're talking about installing additional HVAC equipment and spending $$$. In the summer, even if you cool your house down to 60F, it'll be back to 70F in a couple hours max. Electricity rates from renewable overproduction do not vary on the timescale of hours. It's not a solution without new equipment to…

A couple of hours still substantially reduces your demand during peak rate hours.

(Besides, I grew up in Arizona, and was comfortable up to 78 or so.)

Re: Equivalent of 97% of Scotland’s 2020 electricity consumption was from renewables

#269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much money do you need to save for the incentive to exceed the effort and discomfort? If you make $50 an hour how much effort will you spend every day to save $50 a month? I am sure the variable rates helped to incentivize people to conserve electricity in Texas recently but that is an extreme case. Electricity infrastructure is capital intensive and long term stable rates are required to finance it.

> long term stable rates are required to finance it. Gasoline prices vary all over the place, and there's a heluva lot of expensive infrastructure for it.

Compare gasoline prices to the electricity prices in Texas recently, Texas has experienced negative prices in windy periods and prices at the artificial market limit of 11,000 $/MWH, which is the equivalent of $396 / gallon of gasoline. Electricity prices change much faster and the swings are much larger than gasoline.

Electricity is different from gasoline since it can’t be easily stored production and consumption are always perfectly in balance.

Gasoline is a world wide commodity, whereas electricity is consumed relatively close to where it is generated.

Oil and gasoline are global markets, but there are many regional electricity markets with their own sets of regulations which are constantly evolving.

From what I’ve seen The only way people sink money in to building electrical infrastructure is with some long term certainty for prices from some buyer. Maybe it is different once the asset is paid off you can operate in the spot market but I believe financiers prefer the certainty of a fixed contract.

Maybe refineries that are built find a buyer for their product before they build them too?

Re: Equivalent of 97% of Scotland’s 2020 electricity consumption was from renewables

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> long term stable rates are required to finance it. Gasoline prices vary all over the place, and there's a heluva lot of expensive infrastructure for it.

Compare gasoline prices to the electricity prices in Texas recently, Texas has experienced negative prices in windy periods and prices at the artificial market limit of 11,000 $/MWH, which is the equivalent of $396 / gallon of gasoline. Electricity prices change much faster and the swings are much larger than gasoline. Electricity is different from gasoline since it can’t be easily stored production and consumption a…

I suspect that the wild price increases in Texas are from people not realizing the price had gone up and continued using electricity as usual. With demand not dropping, that just continues to push the price up.

I doubt this would happen a second time, as people wise up. They'll either monitor the electricity prices, or put automatic shutoffs in place if the price exceeds $xx.

> long term certainty

Higher levels of risk simply mean higher prices.

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