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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#981

Post by ttt0 »

bosswipe wrote: post #935
ttt0 wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So discussing possibility of a lab leak is not a problem, it's the deliberate bioweapon aspect that they're banning. And the virus being man-made is not a possibility? https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debat...

Things aren't black and white, free-speech vs evil. The editor's note on your link illustrates the problem.

The editor's note says there is no evidence that this is the case. There is no strong evidence about anything regarding what are the origins of the virus. But it's still entirely within the realm of possibility that it could be true.

Sure, things aren't black and white and I never said they were. But Facebook will ban you for suggesting that it's possible that the virus is man-made, right? So they're the 'extremists' here.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#982

Post by throwaway53453 »

dang wrote: post #455
throwaway53453 wrote: post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd argue China needs to engage in proper sanitation and stop treating citizens as disposable.

Please do not post nationalistic flamebait to HN. It leads to flamewars, which we're trying to avoid here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html While I have you: could you please stop creating accounts for every few comments you post? We ban accounts that do that. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html . You needn't use your real name, of course, but for HN to be…

Sorry dang, have no intention of spamming the website with different accounts. I'll pay more attention to the rules next time.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#983

Post by docmars »

darkerside wrote: post #953
docmars wrote: post #712

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you suggesting that those in the Black community using the N-word isn't in good faith? I don't think generalizations like these are useful or productive because they contradict themselves when you apply any other context to them. It's double-think in its most overt form.

No. In fact, I just said that people use it WITHOUT ill intent. And a white person could use it to refer to another white person (in a joking way) with no ill intent to any specific or general party. But society (generally speaking) has deemed that inappropriate in proper company.

Got it—I misunderstood you—thanks for clarifying.

Words and labels have become a very difficult thing for people to handle rationally. Within a span of just 5-10 years, a big handful of them went from being tools to bond people to being a dangerous virus that haphazardly assumes each and every person is immeasurably fragile.

It's a clear sign when there is a dramatic shift in how comedians are treated and responded to, that our society in general is more quick to jump to ill conclusions than they're ready to use insults and slurs to poke fun at each other and walk away unscathed, laughing with an eye-roll to top it off.

I miss those days when the majority (around me) were more light-hearted and understood that these moments of fun weren't used to harm others, but to build camaraderie by jesting about our differences and unique cultural idioms.

I worked with a very diverse team in the restaurant industry, and the majority of our jokes were racial stereotypes of one another, and it's safe to say, we all went home feeling seen, appreciated, and laughing our asses off.

It was fun that other people knew a few quirks about my origins that I was secure enough to laugh at, instead of feeling threatened by them. Many friendships were formed with light insults (and yes, often racial) used to break the ice.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#984

Post by koheripbal »

tripletao wrote: post #947
koheripbal wrote: post #914

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it is the largest city near the bat habitat - with the largest wet market. Wuhan is like Chicago in China. It's not some random small town. If an outbreak occurred in some rural area (which it might have previously), it's possible that it just fizzled out. Wuhan is a great place for a virus to spread.

Take a look at this on a map. Mojiang (where RaTG13, the closest known relative to SARS-CoV-2, was reportedly sampled) is closer to Chongqing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, or HK than to Wuhan. Pu'er is roughly Chicago-sized, and it's 150 km away. Kunming is more people than two Chicagos, and it's 200 km away. It makes sense that this first emerged in a city, but Wuhan is far from the obvious geographic choice.

Maybe folks in Mojiand have some immunity because other variants spread there before? Maybe that's why Vietnam (cause Hanoi is close too) have been largely spared. Maybe Wuhan has a bigger market for "wild meat" than rural places - that wouldn't surprise me. Maybe RaTG13 is present in a lot of places. Maybe there are some even closer relatives to sars-cov-2 closer to Wuhan.

Again, none of this is conclusive. It's all speculation. maybe maybe maybe. There are lots of potential ways for this to have happened natually.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#985

Post by FriendlyNormie »

arisAlexis wrote: post #841

The problem is that this is a too rational theory. Not enough of a conspiracy (these people prefer to think it was released on purpose to control global population etc). The other end of the spectrum the rationalists and scientists fear that they may go down a slippery conspiracy slope so they dismiss it the first moment another fellow scientist says so. Then the politicians don't want this hot potato in their hands,…

No post body was provided.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#986

Post by FriendlyNormie »

hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

No post body was provided.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#987

Post by pnathan »

DigiDigiorno wrote: post #176
pnathan wrote: post #143

I have three perspectives here I want to share. (1) Let's address the glass windows in our own house first and tighten the US policies and culture. Secrecy is not a good idea here. Without even reflecting on Covid, it is clear the author has been dealing with this a while, and the US needs to improve. I am reminded of discussions on the old '50s/'60s nuclear culture... (2) A year later, it may not be possible for the…

1. I think this perspective is basically "Whataboutism the US house...", Whataboutism aside, the US does examine and iteratively improve standards...but either way, we aren't talking about that house. 2. I only think a thorough investigation is not possible because the Chinese government is not going to allow that such a honest investigation to occur. 3. If a flowerpot fell from a balcony and killed your loved one, y…

> we aren't talking about that house.

My ability to pressure the Chinese government is remarkably limited compared to my ability to pressure my Senator, which is also not large - on a good day.

China isn't a transparent society - on a good day, either. That's facts.

There is also what might be called diplomatic pragmatism, a realpolitik. So, let's fix what we can fix, and make a point of not being a fricking embarrassment if we ask other governments to come clean.

edit: The problem here is several-fold. (1) There's opacity that is over Wuhan, and time does not help this; the Chinese government (at some levels) tried to cover it up. There may not be evidence any more of what happened. Ordinary time shuffling may have removed it. Period. The author is experienced at observing the open society's sloppiness with these sorts of accidents, and thinks there's at least a plausible case that it may have been released.

(2) The open society's ability to pressure China into being fully cooperative is partially conditioned on its reputation and soft power at demonstrating how good things can be. Which, it has not been.

(3) I am really really not in a meaningful position to call for changes to happen outside of a very limited location. That is because I am a citizen of the USA, resident in WA state. So. I would like to see the USA clean up its act; I would particularly like WA to clean it up. I can most effectively contact officials, etc, and attend meetings & interest groups in relation to this sort of event. This is not whataboutism, this is dealing with the parts of the world I can affect.

(4) If Covid was released from a military/research lab because someone goofed on a security protocol, what does that matter to me, compared to someone who got sneezed on by an animal? Seriously. I don't think it matters in the wash. Health systems have to be resilient to novel pathogens, regardless of the etiology of patient zero.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#988

Post by tripletao »

alephr wrote: post #980
tripletao wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe it's quite possible (p ~ 0.5) that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic originated from a lab accident. If the proximal animal host were identified--as it was for both MERS and the original SARS within about a year--then I'd drop that probability by at least a factor of ten. For references see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26127197 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26129052

well that's a start, kudos for the probability and evidence that would shift it. Like most people I haven't looked into any of this much before the last year so I'm far from knowledgeable here but: .5 is a surprising number without any additional explanation because it suggests you think this is about as likely as a zoonotic origin (or at least not specifically the result of an accident). Does that probably extend to…

A few people have attempted such a model:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/345753939_Outlines_...

https://zenodo.org/record/4477081

I don't fully agree with either analysis, but it shows the evidence and basic form of the argument. Most human pandemics historically have originated from natural zoonosis, but the 1977 flu pandemic was very likely a lab accident. So my prior knowing that a pandemic has occurred but nothing else would be small but not zero, perhaps a few percent.

That the pandemic occurred in a city that (a) lies far from expected natural spillover regions for SARS-like viruses, and (b) contains the lab with the world's biggest collection of SARS-like viruses increases that probability. That the lab staff say they weren't working with any viruses close to SARS-CoV-2 decreases it, but the obstruction of any attempt to verify that independently increases it back again.

The absence of a proximal host also increases that probability. China has every opportunity and motivation to find that, and so far they've failed. I guess it's possible that they found it and they're lying, because they seem determined now to show that the virus originated outside China; but the lab leak has become a sufficiently established part of (politicized and largely science-free) anti-China rhetoric that I'd guess they'd welcome the chance to prove it false.

Of course that could just mean the pandemic originated from a very rare but natural event. But that then raises the possibility of a naturally-evolved virus released by WIV staff, whether by way of the lab or just from a researcher who gets infected on a sampling trip--WIV collection activity is a small fraction of total human activity in spillover areas, but a large fraction of human activity travelling from the most remote virus-rich regions back to Wuhan.

If you're interested in this, I'd suggest Alina Chan's Twitter feed. She's taken a tremendous reputational risk here, and quite a lot of abuse both from virologists who find it unthinkable that their work could lead to such a catastrophe, and from genuine conspiracy theorists disappointed when what they thought was their ally debunks their science-free claims.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#989

Post by darkerside »

docmars wrote: post #983
darkerside wrote: post #953

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. In fact, I just said that people use it WITHOUT ill intent. And a white person could use it to refer to another white person (in a joking way) with no ill intent to any specific or general party. But society (generally speaking) has deemed that inappropriate in proper company.

Got it—I misunderstood you—thanks for clarifying. Words and labels have become a very difficult thing for people to handle rationally. Within a span of just 5-10 years, a big handful of them went from being tools to bond people to being a dangerous virus that haphazardly assumes each and every person is immeasurably fragile. It's a clear sign when there is a dramatic shift in how comedians are treated and responded t…

I'm of two minds (I often am). I agree that humor is a bonding device. What doesn't kill us makes us stronger. And to top it off, it's more fun.

But, what if there was a person in your group that was actually offended? And couldn't say so because they'd be out of the group? Does it matter? (To me, yes). Does it matter enough to change the group's behavior? (Maybe). Does it matter enough to change the entire world's behavior?

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#990

Post by ric2b »

Jan454 wrote: post #949
heidar wrote: post #887

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CCP didn't do it right from the beginning. It took them almost two months to even acknowledge the virus was spreading between humans and was dangerous. All they did was try to downplay it and cover it up, until it had spread not only throughout China, but the rest of the world. That's despite having systems in place for exactly the purpose of catching viruses like covid-19 early and quickly. It's a great example…

Yeah, and the US took it almost 2 more month to do the same, so no difference here...

Which western doctors were arrested for raising awareness about covid?
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