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Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

theregister.co.uk

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Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#151

Post by meric »

gwright wrote: post #87
RuadhanMc wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is probably because people are comfortable with the familiar. Sure, a warmer earth might be a positive-sum change, but there's an equally good chance that it won't be. So why take the risk of losing what you have if you can avoid it?

> equally good chance that it won't be. probability = ?????? is not at all the same thing as probability = 0.50

If I have a question [???] and the answer is "true" or "false". The probability of it being "true" is 50%; Every question you can come up with, you can come up with a negative version. e.g. "Is your name gwright" vs "Is your name not gwright".

So given any question where you know absolutely nothing at all about it, the probability the answer is "Yes" must be 50%!

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#152

Post by jarin »

wunderfool wrote: post #112
goatforce5 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who gets to define n?

no one. we do not have the technology to rapidly alter the climate. our current climate change is the result of thousands of years of population growth and industrialization. concepts for extracting CO2 from the atmosphere in short course are just that, concepts mother nature is still in charge, and needs only shrug slightly with a temperature change of 10 degrees on average in either direction to eliminate humans an…

Somehow I doubt a 10 degree shift (F) would eliminate humans altogether, since humans have likely gone through a population bottleneck of 1,000-10,000 breeding pairs: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#153

Post by akent »

run4yourlives wrote: post #32
hugh3 wrote: post #10

This is exactly why I think the debate should be less about "how can we as humans stop affecting Earth's natual climate" and "how can we as humans gain control over Earth's natural climate". Climate change happens with us or without us. If we're going to protect our huge investments in climate-dependent infrastructure (i.e. cities) then we're gonna want (say) giant space mirrors to compensate for any zany things that…

It's probably easier to just colonize other planets than it is to go farting around with something as delicate as Earth's climate.

Which "other planets" do you have in mind that are within easy reach of Earth?

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#154

Post by justsee »

vannevar wrote: post #126

The article is misleading. The part about an impending period of solar inactivity comes from the solar physicists; the part about a mini-Ice Age comes straight from the blogger based on a snippet from NASA's web site which he either deliberately or inadvertently misread. Had he continued the quote for only one more line, he would have included this important caveat: The connection between solar activity and terrestri…

The article is misleading, which is utterly unsurprising if you're already familiar with the previous work of Lewis Page at El Reg.

He has a penchant for pumping stories that downplay climate change, Fukushima meltdown, etc. If you want stories that play favourably for legacy energy industry, he's your man at The Register.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#155

Post by Locke1689 »

hugh3 wrote: post #10

This is exactly why I think the debate should be less about "how can we as humans stop affecting Earth's natual climate" and "how can we as humans gain control over Earth's natural climate". Climate change happens with us or without us. If we're going to protect our huge investments in climate-dependent infrastructure (i.e. cities) then we're gonna want (say) giant space mirrors to compensate for any zany things that…

A nice idea but I don't think it's really practical. Humanity itself doesn't really have the capability to bring that level of energy output and control to bare on a planetary scale.

Moreover, I don't think it's really a very interesting problem. To use an analogy, your idea is similar to the approach used in AI in the 70s or 80s -- computer scientists trying to build a complete artificial intelligence from scraps. In the past 30 years we've learned that this isn't the right approach to a massive problem that we don't truly understand. Instead, we should focus on building small advances -- pieces which get us toward our overall goal. Instead of attempting to control the weather, we need to focus on smaller goals like practical fusion power, a highly advanced national electrical grid, or advanced solar power.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#156

Post by Blarat »

wunderfool wrote: post #148
felipemnoa wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that without the other life there can be no human life. We are on the top of the food chain and as such we depend on all other animals for our survival. Hopefully it makes sense what I'm saying.

oddly enough some climate scientists (james lovelock, in this case) take it as a given that most animal life is already doomed, and that humans will have to engineer a food source in order to survive. green goo might be in your future

Soylent Green perhaps? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soylent_Green

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#157

Post by Tichy »

thaumaturgy wrote: post #128
Tichy wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the movie out yet? I am still not sure if I want to continue reading the series. It was so depressing.

I've been totally waiting with baited breath to launch this rant at some poor unsuspecting sap. So, hi Tichy! Man, I really really wanted to love that whole book series. The characterization was fantastic, the settings were detailed and rich, the story telling was great ... But, sometime part-way through A Feast For Crows, I just couldn't stand reading it any more. The violence seemed too unnecessary; the destruction…

I only read the first book, but as I said, I found it too depressing. It builds great atmosphere, but then everything just goes down the drain.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#158

Post by retrogradeorbit »

Retric wrote: post #138
hugh3 wrote: post #10

This is exactly why I think the debate should be less about "how can we as humans stop affecting Earth's natual climate" and "how can we as humans gain control over Earth's natural climate". Climate change happens with us or without us. If we're going to protect our huge investments in climate-dependent infrastructure (i.e. cities) then we're gonna want (say) giant space mirrors to compensate for any zany things that…

Minor changes in the suns output have a tiny impact on earths climate. The vastly simplified reason is black body radiation increases as the 4th power of temperature ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan%E2%80%93Boltzmann_law ). And the sun is vary stable when you average over a day sitting at +/- .05% since we have been able to detect it. And unlike earths climate astronomers have plenty of other vary similar stars…

Your sentence should read: Minor changes in the suns output THEORETICALLY have a tiny impact on earths climate.

Real empirical data refutes your conclusion based on one equation.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627640.800-whats-wro...

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#159

Post by retrogradeorbit »

meric wrote: post #151
gwright wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> equally good chance that it won't be. probability = ?????? is not at all the same thing as probability = 0.50

If I have a question [???] and the answer is "true" or "false". The probability of it being "true" is 50%; Every question you can come up with, you can come up with a negative version. e.g. "Is your name gwright" vs "Is your name not gwright". So given any question where you know absolutely nothing at all about it, the probability the answer is "Yes" must be 50%!

The correct answer is the correct answer 100% of the time. And the wrong answer is the wrong answer 100% of the time. If I gave you a question where the correct answer is "no" and you knew _absolutely nothing_ about it, your answer "Yes" would be correct 0% of the time.

Re: Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade

#160

Post by ericd »

scg wrote: post #83
dstorrs wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A) Because every dollar invested in the US space program since inception has created about $7 of economic benefit to the consumer economy. B) (Related to A but worth mentioning separately:) Because the space program has led to major advances in medicine that have improved length and quality of life on Earth. [1] C) To gain access to essentially limitless energy resources via space-based solar. D) To gain access to ma…

> A) Because every dollar invested in the US space program since inception has created about $7 of economic benefit to the consumer economy. This is intriguing. Do you have a reference and/or can you provide an explanation for this?

There were myriad new materials and other technologies developed to defeat the challenges of getting into and surviving in space, many of which launched companies and industries.

Some commonly cited examples: memory foam (TempurPedic Mattresses), better water filters, freeze-dried food, cordless power tools, various plastics, useful solar cells, carbon fiber epoxy.

On top of that, there are all of the benefits of having satellites (telecommunications, GPS, satellite TV, etc).

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