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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#961

Post by dillondoyle »

wayoutthere wrote: post #893
codezero wrote: post #600

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve come to terms in understanding China’s actions by this assumption, which is made up by me, but seems true enough and maybe even true for most nation states when pushed against a wall: They are acting without any concern for the outside world - not for how they are perceived, not for any consequences. They are acting with pure self-determination. This works because they know they can be self sufficient and have a…

I think this is an oversimplification. Chinese culture places a lot of value on saving face — so low and mid-level bureaucrats will massage the numbers so as not to appear to be the weak link in the chain. Do this at every level of an enormous country and you can see how hard it is to even know the truth when the first instinct is to cover everything up, even if it’s a scandal that won’t be published outside China. O…

I've read a lot about this structure where local party leaders lie - often times to save face - and keeps getting passed up.

Chernobyl is a great example of this with deadly consequences. COVID is far worse sadly.

I don't think we could have contained it within China if they had a best response it was already out - well maybe 99.99% chance a not that educated guess - but we could probably have given ourselves a good amount more time. And hard shut down borders quickly if we knew the true vast numbers & death rates in early Wuhan. Then put out the 'embers' locally.

Gives at least some countries a chance of keeping it under control within their borders. Though I don't have faith our (US) CDC would have been up to the task...

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#962

Post by dillondoyle »

wonnage wrote: post #796
lamontcg wrote: post #684

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the intermediate animal is likely animal farming, and they don't want to take the economic and political hit of shutting down an entire industry. We don't have the will to do that either, we still haven't shut down our mink farms. And just for domestic propaganda reasons. If it came from China they could be blamed for it, and they want to deny/deny/deny and defect blame. Serves their propaganda purposes to ha…

Shutting down wildlife farms and consumption was actually one of the first actions taken, this was widely reported last year: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/03/15/9775278... https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/06/28/8839000... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/07/world/asia/china-coronavi... etc.

And mink farms were also culled in Denmark. Though I can't find any news about whether or not they resumed farming.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#963

Post by Nasrudith »

Aeolun wrote: post #571
strogonoff wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An eerily prescient quote from a paper[0] published in 2015, two of the authors of which are with Wuhan Institute of Virology: > Understanding the bat origin of human coronaviruses is helpful for the prediction and prevention of another pandemic emergence in the future. China has clearly contributed valuable research into bat coronaviruses. They had all the motivation to look into these after the first deadly SARS. I…

> However, CCP’s resistance to a proper thorough study of the origins of COVID is IMO not exactly appropriate. It is, in fact, highly suspect. I’m not at all positive that it indeed leaked from a lab in Wuhan, but the fact they won’t let an independent investigation anywhere near it makes me lean more strongly towards that as a possibility. The description of the last investigation into the origins of the virus felt…

If hypothetically a novel virus caused a global pandemic originated within the US they certainly would say the magic words "national security" and refuse to cooperate and take a hardline against whistleblowers if one of their government labs was suspected. The US Government has a pattern of slapping top secret on their mistakes because people getting rightfully mad at them would be "bad for national security".

It is fucked up and not but governments are reflexively secretive so I don't think it says much about China. A superpower or nation-with-delusion-of-superpowerdom would refuse to disclose something like that regardless unless forced by internal political pressure - meaning there isn't anything to read in. They would likely rationalize resistance as "going transparent because enough of the world thinks this opens up rumormongering as a form of intelligence!".

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#964

Post by yosito »

mrfusion wrote: post #954
yosito wrote: post #820

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen this study shared around anti-vaxer groups trying to claim that asymptomatic spread is unlikely. But this study does not prove that at all. They screened 10 million people with no symptoms, and found 300 asymptomatic cases. Then they re-screened 1200 contacts of those cases and didn't find any more cases that they missed. This doesn't prove that asymptomatic spread is unlikely. It proves that the incidence…

I can’t quite follow the line of reasoning here. Can you simplify or rephrase? (Also nice touch to question the credibility by associating it with anti vaxxers) That’s by no means the only study though. Here’s a meta-analysis of 54 studies (link to paper is in article) https://alachuachronicle.com/university-of-florida-researche...

> I can’t quite follow the line of reasoning here. Can you simplify or rephrase?

I was pretty clear, and so was the original study you linked from nature.com. If you can't follow the reasoning of something that simple, should anyone take your claims to be coming from someone who knows what they're talking about?

From the second meta-study you linked:

> We found significantly higher secondary attack rates from symptomatic index cases than asymptomatic or presymptomatic index cases, although less data were available on the latter. The lack of substantial transmission from observed asymptomatic index cases is notable. However, presymptomatic transmission does occur, with some studies reporting the timing of peak infectiousness at approximately the period of symptom onset.

They state very clearly that though their analysis showed a lower secondary attack rate from asymptomatic index cases (0.7-4.9%), they have limited data from which to draw that conclusion, and that presymptomatic transmission does occur. Which means, you can catch SARS-CoV-2 from someone who doesn't know that they're sick.

That's according to the study you linked, and it's far from the claim you made that asymptomatic spread is "actually highly unlikely".

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#965

Post by heavyset_go »

twelve40 wrote: post #774
unishark wrote: post #636

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conspiracy theorists are always going to weave conspiracy theories, though. That doesn't absolve the media or the rest of us from being the adults in the room.

But some things make no sense at all. The most populated country on the planet - a vast, vast population across the area almost as big as the US - has been inexplicably reporting almost zero infections since like March 10, 2020 (way before any vaccines) while the rest of the world (except small and isolated regions), the richest and presumably the most advanced societies still can't get their shit together, are still…

Some sick people had the doors to their homes welded shut by the government in China so that they wouldn't spread COVID.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#966

Post by [deleted] »

yosito wrote: post #964
mrfusion wrote: post #954

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can’t quite follow the line of reasoning here. Can you simplify or rephrase? (Also nice touch to question the credibility by associating it with anti vaxxers) That’s by no means the only study though. Here’s a meta-analysis of 54 studies (link to paper is in article) https://alachuachronicle.com/university-of-florida-researche...

> I can’t quite follow the line of reasoning here. Can you simplify or rephrase? I was pretty clear, and so was the original study you linked from nature.com. If you can't follow the reasoning of something that simple, should anyone take your claims to be coming from someone who knows what they're talking about? From the second meta-study you linked: > We found significantly higher secondary attack rates from symptom…

[deleted]

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#967

Post by musicale »

musicale wrote: post #445

Most of the media coverage and consensus, from the Washington Post to Nature, seems to be that: - the lab escape theory has been thoroughly debunked by science - the WHO investigation put the final nails in the coffin of this theory - therefore, lab escape continues to be a fringe conspiracy theory at best - coverage of the lab escape theory is politically motivated rather than scientifically motivated - continued co…

My point was not about what is true (which we really don't seem to know) but rather about what I've observed in the reporting on the subject, and wondering whether there is a shift going on in said reporting.

Someone did note a shift in WP's coverage, which is interesting to me.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#968

Post by lamontcg »

wonnage wrote: post #796
lamontcg wrote: post #684

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the intermediate animal is likely animal farming, and they don't want to take the economic and political hit of shutting down an entire industry. We don't have the will to do that either, we still haven't shut down our mink farms. And just for domestic propaganda reasons. If it came from China they could be blamed for it, and they want to deny/deny/deny and defect blame. Serves their propaganda purposes to ha…

Shutting down wildlife farms and consumption was actually one of the first actions taken, this was widely reported last year: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/03/15/9775278... https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/06/28/8839000... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/07/world/asia/china-coronavi... etc.

Those wildlife farms were linked to the Huanan Seafood Market which we pretty much at this point know were not the source. That was not ground zero. It is more likely that larger and more economically important fur farming or agriculturally significant animals were responsible. The articles you link to all talk about shutting down exotics (which confines the economic and political damage for China).

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#969

Post by geoduck14 »

vixen99 wrote: post #821
geoduck14 wrote: post #635

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why was this down voted?

You really have tabs on all the innumerable factors involved in a scenario where someone goes to a party and later becomes infected - and pinpoint the reason ?

At the party, there were 42 people present. 16 got sick. In many cases husbands got sick first, then wives. All of these are in a close social network (they either work together, or are married to an employee) - so keeping tabs on each other is very likely. Many of them were socially distancing before hand (I can attest to 4 of them, directly) - so external infections are unlikely, but possible.

Due to the timing, the general consensus is that the husbands contacted the disease from one male (close hugging or extended talking) and then gave it to their wives that night.

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