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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#941

Post by tripletao »

SiempreViernes wrote: post #817
tripletao wrote: post #697

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's reasonable to assume that they're lying, but neither is it reasonable to assume that they're telling the truth. When a lot is at stake, we don't usually take people at their word--financial statements are audited, nuclear facilities are visited by international inspectors, and so on. I don't see why this should be different, but the Chinese government has continuously obstructed any such attempt. A…

Any evidence they have been misleading in their responses to direct questions about their samples would be a start. And you are making a claim about them lying, this comes unavoidably from saying that the VIW is the origin of SARS-CoV-2 as the VIW themselves are publicly claiming they have nothing closer than RaTG13.

It seems simply inconceivable to you that the WIV would lie? Theranos managed to build a $10B company with 800 employees based entirely on a scientific fraud, and they kept it up for ten years with only David Boies to threaten whistleblowers. If the WIV is lying, then it's probably a smaller group of people, for a shorter time, with far nastier tools to keep them in line.

I noted above that the WIV had a database of viral genomes. Public access to that database was removed in September 2019. They say this was due to repeated hacking attempts. They've taken no steps to restore access, or to make the database available in another format (e.g., a dump on a flash drive) that would clearly present zero information security risk. Do you believe their explanation?

And for emphasis, I don't think it's certain that they're lying (about RaTG13 being the closest known relative, at least; I can't see how anyone with the slightest domain knowledge would believe the "hacking" claim), just as I don't think it's certain that a company is lying about their financials when I want to see audited results. The point is that I don't know, and it's normal for people making an important claim to actively want transparency, to build confidence so people don't have to trust them. The WIV's behavior here is the opposite of that.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#942

Post by pageandrew »

soperj wrote: post #930
pageandrew wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the Western countries that "responsibly" treated the virus are having pretty serious surges now. I guess anything short of a total and complete lockdown was irresponsible. I'd say that the release of a highly transmissible and moderately lethal pathogen was the primary issue.

No surges right now in NZ or Australia. Interesting that the place that it actually originated in has no current surge either.

What do the three countries that you mentioned have in common? Total authoritarian lockdowns.

Authoritarian lockdowns are effective at suppressing Covid. I won’t deny that. They’re also a complete non-starter in most countries in the world.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#943

Post by ping_pong »

bgandrew wrote: post #630
ping_pong wrote: post #549

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pneumonia is both bacterial and viral. It wouldn't be surprising if it didn't respond to antibiotics. It was the CT scans of the lungs that showed glassy nodules that was the new symptoms.

Majority of pneumonia cases are caused by bacteria though (see https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/differentiating-viral-from-bac... )

Your statement is completely orthogonal to the point. Doctors know that pneumonia is both bacterial and viral. If it didn't respond to antibiotics, it wouldn't be surprising at all and wouldn't indicate that a new disease was causing it.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#944

Post by Nav_Panel »

Gustomaximus wrote: post #773
Nav_Panel wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's amazing how much ridicule I took for seriously suggesting this theory last year. My friends twisted and exaggerated the extent of my claims (implying I thought it was an intentional action on China's part, or an engineered virus, and not a result of mundane research + accidental containment failure), and called me a crazy conspiracy theorist. I had been reading every journal article I could get my hands on about…

What bothered me is when a few scientists came out and said the virus showed signs of human manufacturing I posted to a few forums like reddit askscience about how from a science perspective was there any validity or was this unfounded conspiracy and there was no discussion. Ive no axe to grind politically, simply think its interesting to explore and understand what indicators/benchmarks there would be etc. One of th…

This was the only piece I found last year that discussed the possibility given the science of the virus: https://yurideigin.medium.com/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-throug...

Unfortunately I'm nowhere near informed enough on virology to understand whether these claims are accurate or are some sort of sleight of hand.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#945

Post by cameldrv »

josefresco wrote: post #917
plibither8 wrote: post #722

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Frankly, I'm tired of this tip-toed attitude - there hasn't been any sort of consequences suffered or imposed on the Chinese government for how they surreptitiously dealt with the virus, initially. I'm not condoning or advocating conspiracy theories, but where they are wrong, they should be penalised.

Based on your logic, should US political leaders face repercussions or be penalized for their mishandling of the virus?

Trump was not reelected, and COVID was probably the biggest reason for that.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#946

Post by FriendlyNormie »

DoctorNick wrote: post #786
DoctorNick wrote: post #715

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I look forward to a bunch of HN posters uncritically swallowing State department propaganda.

I have to wonder if the upvoters realize I'm talking about the US State department...

No post body was provided.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#947

Post by tripletao »

koheripbal wrote: post #914
a9h74j wrote: post #601

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have seen estimates of thousands of wet markets in China and perhaps 10000 in all of Asia. Why the one wet market closest to a lab doing GOF research, and previously questioned on its containment rigor.

Because it is the largest city near the bat habitat - with the largest wet market. Wuhan is like Chicago in China. It's not some random small town. If an outbreak occurred in some rural area (which it might have previously), it's possible that it just fizzled out. Wuhan is a great place for a virus to spread.

Take a look at this on a map. Mojiang (where RaTG13, the closest known relative to SARS-CoV-2, was reportedly sampled) is closer to Chongqing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, or HK than to Wuhan. Pu'er is roughly Chicago-sized, and it's 150 km away. Kunming is more people than two Chicagos, and it's 200 km away. It makes sense that this first emerged in a city, but Wuhan is far from the obvious geographic choice.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#948

Post by Jan454 »

ipiz0618 wrote: post #764
gregwebs wrote: post #397

This is a great article explaining why a lab leak should always be a suspect. The alternative theory is that a virus traveled on its own (via bats or other animals) from bat caves 900km away to Wuhan where there are 2 labs researching bats. One of the labs is lesser known but is right next to the seafood market and the hospital where the outbreak was first known. [1] This article points out that a lab outbreak could…

China is demonized not because of an accident (if it was one). Even if it's confirmed that a lab accident was the cause, China holds the blame for hiding the truth, telling the world it's all okay, and arresting people that dared to speak out (even causing their deaths). No matter what was the origin, China is responsible for the outbreak. Btw, I don't think we can ever find out the truth. It's been over a year, and…

Seems the same behaviour with any other country. Can you name just one that would behave different? So this is no accusation but just business as usual.

Besides, why at all trying to blame anyone on this? It's a natural disaster that could happen to anyone anywhere. The real culprit is, that as long as the wealthy don't try to vaccinate everyone in this world as quickly as possible, the virus still has potential to mutate to sth. where current vaccines don't protect against ..

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#949

Post by Jan454 »

heidar wrote: post #887
ktzar wrote: post #787

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China did a harder lockdown than any other country has done. Right from the beginning. Took an immense toll to its economy, right from the beginning. A WHO team was there investigating and gathering information on public health from the beginning. I'm sorry, but in this case, China is the country who told the rest of the world what to do and the west, with its superiority mentality over the east, ignored it and got a…

The CCP didn't do it right from the beginning. It took them almost two months to even acknowledge the virus was spreading between humans and was dangerous. All they did was try to downplay it and cover it up, until it had spread not only throughout China, but the rest of the world. That's despite having systems in place for exactly the purpose of catching viruses like covid-19 early and quickly. It's a great example…

Yeah, and the US took it almost 2 more month to do the same, so no difference here...

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#950

Post by e4325f »

Raaasmus wrote: post #804
handmodel wrote: post #671

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it Occam's razor? The Bayesian probability suggests the odds that it would evolve by chance AND first become an issue right next to one of the top three bat virus research centers in the world are pretty slim. It would be like a new mosquito disease first being an issue in human population next the CDC headquarters in Atlanta instead of somewhere in Africa of South America. Sure - there are mosquitos everywhere -…

To me another simple explanation is that the disease was first identified near the labs because it is a lab that deals with viruses. I may be mistaken, but I recall it as one of the top ones in the world that virologists from around the world go to. Also waste water samples from Spain and Italy show COVID-19 much earlier than reported in Wuhan. Spain, March 2019, 1 sample https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-cor…

1 sample isn't conclusive enough to form an opinion, lab contamination is more likely. It's embarrassing they even released that information without further analysis.
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