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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#851

Post by boringg »

esja wrote: post #306
boringg wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I subscribe to this theory. I didn't subscribe to it originally because it seemed to dystopian. However on reading the recent politico article ( https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin... ) really changed my opinion about it. To be clear I think it would have been an accident at a Chinese government lab that was underfunded and overworked. Seems to me like the likeliest candidate. I don't think t…

I'd also assign a small but non-zero probability to the US not wanting to point the finger because they prefer the scenario where the general population comes to believe that the lab accident was responsible, but no hard evidence is ever produced. Why? Because it seems like US institutions and people (right up to Fauci) were involved in this research and may not want the domestic blowback. Conveniently the CCP don't…

Please supply links on the research grants.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#852

Post by tim333 »

asmint3 wrote: post #151

That we’re finally seeing some mainstream discussion around this hypothesis should not change the scary fact that months ago governments, scientists and media happily and immediately rejected it as a xenophobic conspiracy theory. The messaging and subsequent ease at which public opinion was influenced should make everyone pause and think hard about other ways they might be being manipulated.

I just chipped into the debate on Wikipedia where it is still regarded as a xenophobic conspiracy theory which I think is a shame as open discussion there would be useful.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#853

Post by boringg »

pmiller2 wrote: post #315
boringg wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I subscribe to this theory. I didn't subscribe to it originally because it seemed to dystopian. However on reading the recent politico article ( https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin... ) really changed my opinion about it. To be clear I think it would have been an accident at a Chinese government lab that was underfunded and overworked. Seems to me like the likeliest candidate. I don't think t…

What about that article convinced you? All I saw was some concern about safety protocols 2 years before the outbreak, some content free insinuations, and a whole lot of "we don't have any evidence." It's not a crazy theory by any means, but, if it happened, then there's evidence. So, where is the evidence? Literally, where is there any actual evidence it happened?

So the Chinese government 100% scrubbed down any data and silenced anyone working there. They stonewalled the WHO and world at large during the beginning of the out break, likely to cover their tracks.

What changed for me is how much circumstantial evidences exists and probably a stronger signal: there hasn’t been another plausible starting point. When something smells this fishy there’s likely a reason. It’s starting to feel like, Occam’s razor - ie that a lab leak is the simplest explanation.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#854

Post by toxik »

ktzar wrote: post #787
bitcharmer wrote: post #778

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I couldn't agree more. There is so much evidence of China suppressing information I don't understand how so many people dismiss their role in spreading the virus beyond their borders. They had a choice to make: country-wide lockdown and travel ban or lie about it and make it spread worldwide. The former would leave their economy in a disadvantaged state while the latter would level the playing field for the rest of t…

China did a harder lockdown than any other country has done. Right from the beginning. Took an immense toll to its economy, right from the beginning. A WHO team was there investigating and gathering information on public health from the beginning. I'm sorry, but in this case, China is the country who told the rest of the world what to do and the west, with its superiority mentality over the east, ignored it and got a…

China pissed and moaned when the WHO was considering recommending banning Chinese air traffic in precaution. Then swiftly banned Western air traffic when the shoe was on the other foot.

Many such examples exist. China did not lead by example, at all. What a strange take.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#855

Post by batpangolin »

strogonoff wrote: post #468
gregwebs wrote: post #397

This is a great article explaining why a lab leak should always be a suspect. The alternative theory is that a virus traveled on its own (via bats or other animals) from bat caves 900km away to Wuhan where there are 2 labs researching bats. One of the labs is lesser known but is right next to the seafood market and the hospital where the outbreak was first known. [1] This article points out that a lab outbreak could…

An eerily prescient quote from a paper[0] published in 2015, two of the authors of which are with Wuhan Institute of Virology: > Understanding the bat origin of human coronaviruses is helpful for the prediction and prevention of another pandemic emergence in the future. China has clearly contributed valuable research into bat coronaviruses. They had all the motivation to look into these after the first deadly SARS. I…

It's not eerily prescient at all. It has been known a long time and the subject of much research that viruses jumping from bats to humans is one of the most likely, and most dangerous sources of new infectious diseases in humans.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#856

Post by tweetle_beetle »

refenestrator wrote: post #701
marcus_holmes wrote: post #637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You gotta remember the culture, and that everything in China is political. You can't just say "oops" and learn the lessons. Any investigations will have the goal not of finding the truth, but of minimising damage to the political powers that control it.

That's not a cultural thing, it's a universal human/organizational thing.

That is true, but the difference is the lack of accountability, which is cultural/societal/political - there are virtually no external forces to counter a potentially dishonest official narrative.

A one party state means that there is no pressure from political opponents (political battles inside the party will never trump the party itself). And there is no pressure from journalists - China has the worst score for press freedom [1] (bar Eritreaa, Turkmenistan and North Korea) with a downward trend over the last decade. If there's no one to hold your feet to the fire, there's little incentive to self-incriminate.

[1] https://rsf.org/en/china

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#857

Post by boringg »

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #802
boringg wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I subscribe to this theory. I didn't subscribe to it originally because it seemed to dystopian. However on reading the recent politico article ( https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin... ) really changed my opinion about it. To be clear I think it would have been an accident at a Chinese government lab that was underfunded and overworked. Seems to me like the likeliest candidate. I don't think t…

The Politico article is extremely dishonest. Josh Rogin has been claiming for a year now that US diplomats raised red flags about the WIV's safety. He wrote an article to this effect a year ago, based on diplomatic cables he had seen. Then the Washington Post obtained the full cables, and it turned out that Rogin had seriously mischaracterized them. They do not claim that the WIV has unsafe practices - only that its…

Source please, that will impact how much credence I give the article.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#858

Post by tim333 »

standardUser wrote: post #540
Graffur wrote: post #461

Science, like journalism, is supposed to be about facts and about getting to the truth. No source of covid-19 has been found. Similar lab leaks happen frequently. BUT.. you're not allowed to discuss it with the undertones that you're a bad person. If you say china virus you could be accused of being a racist. But if you say South African or British variant it's okay. The mental acrobats are insane. If you suggest peo…

There were several terms that came into common use very quickly and none of them included the word "China". When a president with a history of racist statements started using it constantly, and Asian Americans started to get harassed and attacked at an increased rate, it became obviously unethical (to most people) to try and replace the existing, widely used terms with one that has a racial and national component. No…

I've only heard "China virus" being used with xenophobic intent. Back in January 2020 before it has an official name it was referred to as the Wuhan virus.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#859

Post by tasogare »

andrewflnr wrote: post #607
strogonoff wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An eerily prescient quote from a paper[0] published in 2015, two of the authors of which are with Wuhan Institute of Virology: > Understanding the bat origin of human coronaviruses is helpful for the prediction and prevention of another pandemic emergence in the future. China has clearly contributed valuable research into bat coronaviruses. They had all the motivation to look into these after the first deadly SARS. I…

My impression was that "lab escape" was conflated with "deliberate release" by conspiracy types early on, and once that took hold it became impossible to talk rationally about the accidental escape hypothesis.

> My impression was that "lab escape" was conflated with "deliberate release" by conspiracy types early on

No, the conflating was done by the media and this is exactly how I know it’s actually the most probable theory. The same thing happened for other few big "accidents", where the media/government were prompt to demonize a particular option and push a less convincing one.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#860

Post by wccrawford »

Huffers2 wrote: post #241
wccrawford wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? There are multiple hurricanes every single year, but I still hear about them. Especially the ones that might affect my area. But it might be more like: "Yet another hurricane cause by weather." Not really a story, since they all have been. The opposite, though, that'd be a real story: "Hurricane not caused by weather!"

Sorry, I edited my comment at the same time you posted your comment - leading to yours to not have the proper context. (For the record I wrote something about things that happen frequently not being news)

No worries!
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