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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#751

Post by Stupulous »

hsitz wrote: post #656
Stupulous wrote: post #428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There were 49 incidents of anti-Asian hate crime in 2019 and 122 in 2020. I get that those numbers should be zero. But am I way out of line in saying that something that affects ~.00006% of Asian-Americans, and makes up ~1.6% of total hate crimes, should have no bearing on how we approach this subject? My genuine apologies if I am crossing a line. I know this is a potentially touchy subject. Hate crime is serious and…

The 9/11 attacks killed less than 3,000 people. Or if you want percentages, resulted in the deaths of about 0.0009% of the U.S. populace. Yet it sent our country to war and has had an impact on millions of people. It is in the very nature of terrorist acts that they "terrorize" the wide populace, while only a tiny fraction are ever victims of terrorism. It is similar with hate crimes. Human psychology deals with numb…

I'd like to first take an aside and apologize for a previous error. I divided incidents by population and came to 0.0006. This is off by an order of magnitude. But that is not the worst of it. This number belongs in the context of crime rates. Gallup [1] tells me that 1-3% of people are victims of violent crimes. So I must further multiply by 100 and conclude that hate crimes represent 0.6% of the total violent crimes experienced by Asian-Americans. And once again, I have to add that I did find numbers that suggested Asian-Americans may be victimized much less than the general population, although these numbers were from 2006. 0.6-6% is the final answer. This is a massive misrepresentation, and I want to be clear that this was not intentionally manipulative. It was quick thinking and poor judgment.

I agree that the US response to the threat of terrorism was also very much an overreaction, so at least you can say I'm consistent.

From what I understand, the total number of hate crimes decreased in 2020. I haven't been able to find the data and if, for example, this is because the number of hate crimes against whites dropped, the following is false. But in my mind this fits a model where X people are going to attack minorities in a given year, and this year, for obvious and insane reasons, they typically targeted Asians.

I understand the frustration and pain and cause for pushback. I say this because the next part will come across as cold. From a utilitarian perspective, there is not any material difference between worlds where different minorities are victimized. Changing the targets doesn't solve anything.

[1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/285644/percentage-americans-rec...

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#752

Post by throwawaysea »

Consultant32452 wrote: post #729
andrewflnr wrote: post #607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My impression was that "lab escape" was conflated with "deliberate release" by conspiracy types early on, and once that took hold it became impossible to talk rationally about the accidental escape hypothesis.

My impression is that China and China influenced corporate press in the US conflated "lab escape" with "deliberate release" so as to be able to demonize anyone who was asking serious questions. This is a pretty standard propaganda move, pretend the accuser said something that is adjacent to the real accusation but also relatively absurd, then argue against that. Never address the serious accusation. Another example o…

What do you call a cabal of American newspapers, tech companies (policing social media), and politicians (attacking Trump/conservatives) simultaneously conflating the two theories (malicious artificial virus versus leak of natural virus), attacking anyone suggesting an accidental lab leak aggressively, and censoring discussion of the same? It isn’t just “China influenced corporate press”. It’s the entirety of the left and left-leaning institutions (news, tech) that voluntarily participated in this mass gaslighting.

People often stir up fears of foreign influence but in the last few years it really has seemed like the biggest sources of inorganic influence and “propaganda” has been domestic.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#753

Post by StanislavPetrov »

ethbr0 wrote: post #651
dillondoyle wrote: post #541

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get what you're saying, but it seems slightly more nuanced. From my understanding WIV did do gain of function research. e.g. purposefully make virus' more deadly or infectious to study them. Definitely not a super villain at least I hope/highly doubt the intention was a weapon (you could surely create a better weapon?). I'm not judging the value of that research, it does sound valuable but maybe not more so than th…

Every BSL-certified lab should be doing gain of function research. If leaks are a problem, then certifications should be better enforced. Burying our head in the sand and waiting for nature to kill us is a losing move.

>Every BSL-certified lab should be doing gain of function research.

Its far from settled that the benefits of gain of function research outweigh the benefits. This is a debate that has raged among the scientific community for years (a debate which would over if it was discovered that COVID came from a lab involved in gain of function research).

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#754

Post by dang »

saas_sam wrote: post #293
tehjoker wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The Washington Post newspaper reported information obtained from diplomatic cables on 14 April. They show that, in 2018, US science diplomats were sent on repeated visits to a Chinese research facility. Officials sent two warnings to Washington about the lab. The column says the officials were worried about safety and management weaknesses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) and called for more help." ... "What…

So the US intelligence service isn't credible... but the CCP is? I think I understand where you are coming from now, thank you.

This breaks the site guidelines. Please review them and stick to the rules when posting here.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#755

Post by dang »

Giorgi wrote: post #204

Looks like breach theory is finally reaching mainstream. Good to know wokies protecting "poor China" will finally GTFO.

Please do not use HN for nationalistic or ideological flamewar. We ban such accounts regardless of which country or ideology they are for or against.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#756

Post by throwawaysea »

plibither8 wrote: post #722
kjjjjjjjjjjjjjj wrote: post #644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We need to avoid demonizing China over this if we want to ever find out the truth and learn how to prevent another pandemic outbreak. But China knew about the virus in 2019 and kept it quiet. They silenced scientists. China is complicit in this pandemic and should pay reparations.

Exactly. Frankly, I'm tired of this tip-toed attitude - there hasn't been any sort of consequences suffered or imposed on the Chinese government for how they surreptitiously dealt with the virus, initially. I'm not condoning or advocating conspiracy theories, but where they are wrong, they should be penalised.

The Chinese government also started limiting domestic flights in January 2020 but allowed foreign flights out until late March 2020 (https://english.alarabiya.net/features/2020/04/09/Coronaviru...). That seems like they were containing damage that affected them but were happy to risk the rest of the world. I’m not sure if this was an economic decision or something more malicious but it doesn’t matter - how are they not held accountable for this obvious export of the virus?

Meanwhile in the US, hysterical partisans attacked Trump for correctly naming the virus along with its origin. This resulted in a societal unwillingness to direct blame at the Chinese government for all their numerous missteps, starting with suppression of early reports of a new pneumonia like illness in late 2019. How many deaths could have been avoided with just the most basic level of transparency and responsibility?

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#757

Post by ceilingcorner »

gregwebs wrote: post #397

This is a great article explaining why a lab leak should always be a suspect. The alternative theory is that a virus traveled on its own (via bats or other animals) from bat caves 900km away to Wuhan where there are 2 labs researching bats. One of the labs is lesser known but is right next to the seafood market and the hospital where the outbreak was first known. [1] This article points out that a lab outbreak could…

People are demonizing the CCP because they refuse to allow a thorough investigation.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#758

Post by manojlds »

gregwebs wrote: post #397

This is a great article explaining why a lab leak should always be a suspect. The alternative theory is that a virus traveled on its own (via bats or other animals) from bat caves 900km away to Wuhan where there are 2 labs researching bats. One of the labs is lesser known but is right next to the seafood market and the hospital where the outbreak was first known. [1] This article points out that a lab outbreak could…

We need to demonize China for all the things they have done to keep it secret in the early days and even upto now, not that the original leak did happen if at all we ever find out about it.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#760

Post by musicale »

throwawaysea wrote: post #752
Consultant32452 wrote: post #729

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My impression is that China and China influenced corporate press in the US conflated "lab escape" with "deliberate release" so as to be able to demonize anyone who was asking serious questions. This is a pretty standard propaganda move, pretend the accuser said something that is adjacent to the real accusation but also relatively absurd, then argue against that. Never address the serious accusation. Another example o…

What do you call a cabal of American newspapers, tech companies (policing social media), and politicians (attacking Trump/conservatives) simultaneously conflating the two theories (malicious artificial virus versus leak of natural virus), attacking anyone suggesting an accidental lab leak aggressively, and censoring discussion of the same? It isn’t just “China influenced corporate press”. It’s the entirety of the lef…

> conflating the two theories (malicious artificial virus versus leak of natural virus)

I have certainly been puzzled by this, for example in a Washington Post article. By conflating the two, lab escape became a "fringe conspiracy theory" rather than a hypothesis that should be investigated.

It seemed like sloppy journalism at best.

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