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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#651

Post by ethbr0 »

dillondoyle wrote: post #541
nickt wrote: post #528

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s probably important to point out that a “lab leak” is a result of human-clumsiness or similar, and not the sci-fi movie bad guys engineering a virus. A lot of the non-HN crowd don’t get the difference.

I get what you're saying, but it seems slightly more nuanced. From my understanding WIV did do gain of function research. e.g. purposefully make virus' more deadly or infectious to study them. Definitely not a super villain at least I hope/highly doubt the intention was a weapon (you could surely create a better weapon?). I'm not judging the value of that research, it does sound valuable but maybe not more so than th…

Every BSL-certified lab should be doing gain of function research.

If leaks are a problem, then certifications should be better enforced.

Burying our head in the sand and waiting for nature to kill us is a losing move.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#652

Post by endisneigh »

Assuming it was leaked and China didn’t disclose it - so what? Is the idea to blame China for everything? What’s the play?

I honestly don’t see what difference it makes from it coming from a lab in China vs someone eating something they weren’t supposed to be vs a bat, etc.

I’m honestly curious to why it matters - not to say that we shouldn’t pursue the truth but it seems like it doesn’t matter.

These theories without conclusive evidence seems to just blame China - which unfortunately drive anti Sino sentiment.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#653

Post by disgruntled101 »

It seems that the common trend of explaining why China covered up the information and didn't let external third parties investigate is due to possible backlash. My simple question is, why fear backlash if it wasn't a leak either due to incompetence and malice? If bats from outside the lab truly started it, why not let observers see this? Why hide it?

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#654

Post by LdSGSgvupDV »

tkinom wrote: post #580
mensetmanusman wrote: post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We will never know the truth to the extent that China would admit this. It’s obvious in hindsight that what you say is likely true, but there is no feasible political route for the CCP to take blame, as their lives would be at stake due to unrest.

WHO should sequence all the Virus DNAs from that lab in 2015-2019 compare that with all the Covid sequences.

There is no difference between WHO and China. For this problem, I don't think WHO would give any help. We would never know the true. IMHO, we shouldn't dismiss the possibility of leak, but sadly we could only dismiss it.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#656

Post by hsitz »

Stupulous wrote: post #428
danudey wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's also add in that the "Wuhan lab leak theory", combined with the "China virus" nomenclature, has resulted in huge increases in racist and white supremacist violence against people of Asian descent.

There were 49 incidents of anti-Asian hate crime in 2019 and 122 in 2020. I get that those numbers should be zero. But am I way out of line in saying that something that affects ~.00006% of Asian-Americans, and makes up ~1.6% of total hate crimes, should have no bearing on how we approach this subject? My genuine apologies if I am crossing a line. I know this is a potentially touchy subject. Hate crime is serious and…

The 9/11 attacks killed less than 3,000 people. Or if you want percentages, resulted in the deaths of about 0.0009% of the U.S. populace. Yet it sent our country to war and has had an impact on millions of people. It is in the very nature of terrorist acts that they "terrorize" the wide populace, while only a tiny fraction are ever victims of terrorism. It is similar with hate crimes.

Human psychology deals with numbers strangely. There are many who seem to think 500,000+ deaths (many preventable) from Covid are not something to be overly concerned about. Some of these same people are deeply worried about "Extremist Muslim terrorism" that has had very few victims.

So, yeah, from what I understand about growing anti-Asian crime, I do think it makes sense to be concerned. In particular, because this increase seems to be a (predictable) response to actions by many over the past year to demonize China, which any sane person knew would create a generalized animosity toward Asian-Americans. It's not like things like this have never happened before. They have, and they're quite predictable.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#657

Post by rossdavidh »

disgruntled101 wrote: post #653

It seems that the common trend of explaining why China covered up the information and didn't let external third parties investigate is due to possible backlash. My simple question is, why fear backlash if it wasn't a leak either due to incompetence and malice? If bats from outside the lab truly started it, why not let observers see this? Why hide it?

It is not impossible that the authorities in China don't actually know what happened, but are afraid that it could have been a lab accident. Thus, they cover up from observers just in case, even though it might not actually have been the source. But, I share your concern.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#659

Post by ajross »

bgandrew wrote: post #604
ajross wrote: post #598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no requirement that bats be transported to Wuhan. It's close to a known bat virus, and that's all we know. There are local bats in Wuhan, needless to say. Other species can easily be involved. The truth is that there is nothing particularly surprising about the way this virus evolved. Fundamentally this is a pandemic like any other. They happen in some species or another every year. And that, more than anyth…

The fact that they didn't find an intermediate host after more than a year of search should tell you something.

It tells you that that kind of analysis is extraordinarily difficult. How many documented three+ species viral evolution paths can you cite from the literature?

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#660

Post by marshmallow_12 »

WARNING: shameless conspiracy theory ahead:

Let me explain that i'm not trying to push any agenda, or that i ever normally believe such things but i think this event hasn't had enough coverage https://thebulletin.org/2019/11/what-happened-after-an-explo...

Conclude what you will. I personally don't know enough so i'm not sure whether a link can be drawn, yet the timing is curious.

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