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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#361

Post by polartx »

danudey wrote: post #334
hsitz wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, exactly. I would add, though, that the "Wuhan lab leak theory", in many people's minds, seems to be combined with a suspected intentional act by the Chinese government, to unleash a dangerous virus on the rest of the world. I think we should dismiss that part of the theory (it's of course not impossible, just not likely, mostly fun fodder for conspiracy nuts). But as far as infectious disease labs all across the…

Let's also add in that the "Wuhan lab leak theory", combined with the "China virus" nomenclature, has resulted in huge increases in racist and white supremacist violence against people of Asian descent.

The public must not be trusted to discuss x, y, or z for fear of what the racist white supremacists might do!

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#362

Post by dang »

stonogo wrote: post #147
dang wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith. " https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Hi dang, I am curious to know if this guideline applies only when responding to HN comments, or if it should be applied to source material in article links as well. I've noticed a lot more conspiracy-theorizing comments lately and it's hard to engage when the whole premise of a given comment is accusing someone else of misrepresenting facts. Thanks for all your hard work, regardless!

It totally applies to the articles too. That wasn't in my mind when we introduced that guideline but it turns out to apply just as nicely at that level.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#363

Post by tryonenow »

mc32 wrote: post #327
ryandrake wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worrying about where it came from is misdirection to distract us from the real issue that you pointed out: That nearly all countries totally failed to effectively deal with it and contain the spread, resulting in a body count that should be totally unacceptable. We got extraordinarily lucky that it wasn't super deadly. Imagine if the next COVID is 20X deadlier and hits uniformly across age ranges. We're doomed if we…

And maybe people should not have dismissed it as a crockpot idea that should be dismissed out or hand and had Twitter suspensions over mentioning it. And maybe if it was a leak and the world had been warned of the dangers then they would have locked down movement to and from the origin before it began to spread internationally.

An excellent case against twitter's "fact checking" and censorship. They are not experts, and as this whole debacle proves, experts are fallible too, and it is not twitter's place to determine and censor dissent from consensus.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#364

Post by jariel »

crx07 wrote: post #21

This has honestly been my unbiased opinion since essentially day 1. I believe that the release was almost certainly a complete accident, but there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. The denialists, including the WHO and CDC and everyone else, need to get real and own up to what happened and figure ou…

The WHO will never look where they don't want the answer to be found and will actively work against it.

The chair of the WHO (Tedros Adhanom) [1] was a communist rebel (Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front) fighter in north africa and his career has been sponsored and guided by China for this reason.

They won't suppress findings made internally because it would be too hard to cover up - but they will 'do the least' with respect to finding answers.

Only the US has enough power and wherewithal to even try to do something, but they'll be kept out direct, so it boils down to how sophisticated the US clandestine efforts are in China.

My completely speculative guess is that US operating ability in China is 'really bad' and that they've already barked up that tree and found nothing conclusive.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tedros_Adhanom

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#365

Post by dfee »

ryandrake wrote: post #303
hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

Worrying about where it came from is misdirection to distract us from the real issue that you pointed out: That nearly all countries totally failed to effectively deal with it and contain the spread, resulting in a body count that should be totally unacceptable. We got extraordinarily lucky that it wasn't super deadly. Imagine if the next COVID is 20X deadlier and hits uniformly across age ranges. We're doomed if we…

This reads like “we shouldn’t worry about the cause, only the effect”. As in, I’m unable to see another interpretation of your remark.

No! We should worry about the cause and also concern ourselves with managing the effect.

If we can prevent this, we should try. And, if our (American) politicians can be held to account for mishandling the situation, the WHO and China should be scrutinized on the international stage.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#366

Post by brabel »

Nav_Panel wrote: post #236
asmint3 wrote: post #151

That we’re finally seeing some mainstream discussion around this hypothesis should not change the scary fact that months ago governments, scientists and media happily and immediately rejected it as a xenophobic conspiracy theory. The messaging and subsequent ease at which public opinion was influenced should make everyone pause and think hard about other ways they might be being manipulated.

It's amazing how much ridicule I took for seriously suggesting this theory last year. My friends twisted and exaggerated the extent of my claims (implying I thought it was an intentional action on China's part, or an engineered virus, and not a result of mundane research + accidental containment failure), and called me a crazy conspiracy theorist. I had been reading every journal article I could get my hands on about…

Just in case you didn't understand what the article was saying: "Labs in Wuhan might not have played any role in the origin of the pandemic. But a year later, no source has been found, and the world deserves a thorough, unbiased investigation of all plausible theories that is conducted without fear or favor."

It did NOT say the virus was definitely released from a lab. It did NOT present any evidence it was. All the article said was that given the author's experience with labs like this, she thinks the chances the virus escaped are not as remote as the scientists investigating it claim it is. That's all! Your theory might be correct, but as of now, you have no reason to think you've been vindicated.

EDIT: author is a woman, so fixed pronoun.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#367

Post by CoryAlexMartin »

hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

Knowing the environment in which the virus developed can help us better understand it, which will strengthen our ability to appropriately respond to it, now and in the future.

You should care about knowing where it came from if you want to save lives.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#368

Post by throwawaysea »

WrtCdEvrydy wrote: post #348
akira2501 wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Then we shouldn't be doing _gain of function_ research on the types of viruses that can cause these outbreaks. > Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign countries we do not…

> we shouldn't be doing _gain of function_ research on the types of viruses that can cause these outbreaks. Why not? Seriously, this is the "let's just stop developing nukes" argument... someone will and whether we're prepared or not is on us.

For one, the US banned such research and specifically for SARS: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2014/10/17/doing-d...

We should also remember that there were past lab leaks in China of SARS, including ones that led to smaller outbreaks and deaths: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20040423/china-sars-death

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#369

Post by jonny_eh »

WrtCdEvrydy wrote: post #348
akira2501 wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Then we shouldn't be doing _gain of function_ research on the types of viruses that can cause these outbreaks. > Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign countries we do not…

> we shouldn't be doing _gain of function_ research on the types of viruses that can cause these outbreaks. Why not? Seriously, this is the "let's just stop developing nukes" argument... someone will and whether we're prepared or not is on us.

> Why not?

It's not worth the risk.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#370

Post by tomp »

tbenst wrote: post #122

This article is written by a journalist who is clearly knowledgeable about safety practices and mistakes in US labs, but does not consider the extensive knowledge we have about the sequence of SARS-COV2. The preponderance of evidence supports a natural origin of the virus. This is no way exonerates the Wuhan government from possible culpability—indeed government officials did deliberately suppress information—but thi…

> Misinformation.

from the article you linked to:

> Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.

You're the one spreading FUD, intentionally misinterpreting the original article and making up a fake argument that "lab leak" hypothesis somehow contradicts "natural origin" and implies that the virus was "designed". (If I understand the article correctly, "purposefully manipulated" means "genetically manipulated", not "gain of function".) Flagged.

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