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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#321

Post by refenestrator »

tomp wrote: post #245
coldtea wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"During its 140th meeting in January 2017, the Executive Board of the WHO shortlisted Tedros as the front runner out of six candidates through two rounds of secret voting. He collected the most votes during both rounds.[citation needed] Tedros "was supported by a bloc of African and Asian countries, including China, which has considerable influence with those members" while "the US, UK and Canada... lent their suppor…

You say this as if Africa&China was equivalent to US&EU. A bunch of totalitarian dictatorships / warlord states vs. democratic and at least somewhat accountable and transparent free republics.

The somewhat accountable and transparent free republics spent like 200 years completely dicking over Africa & China to the tune of millions dead. Not really a position of moral superiority.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#322

Post by onethought »

tkinom wrote: post #307
hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

If it is indeed "sloppy lab" leak the virus and we don't care, it will happen again.

As has been pointed out, it will happen again no matter what. The vectors of deadly disease occurring are huge. The response is the piece we can properly control.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#323

Post by esja »

asmint3 wrote: post #151

That we’re finally seeing some mainstream discussion around this hypothesis should not change the scary fact that months ago governments, scientists and media happily and immediately rejected it as a xenophobic conspiracy theory. The messaging and subsequent ease at which public opinion was influenced should make everyone pause and think hard about other ways they might be being manipulated.

The same reflexive denial happened on HN. Yet the lab leak theory has always been consistent with the situation. It's also always been the best fit to the behaviour we've seen from the various actors.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#324

Post by helloedward »

hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

Hey man, you are supremely arrogant. No one is advocating that we loosen global pandemic preparedness, you can stop gasping. People talk about lab leak for a litany of reasons, but you are just grandstanding and straw-manning an argument no one is making. I can’t stand you.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#325

Post by polartx »

mancerayder wrote: post #270
bosswipe wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From FB's policy https://www.facebook.com/help/230764881494641 " Claims that it was created by an individual, government, or country Excluding claims that it was studied in, came from, or leaked from a lab without specifically calling it man-made" So discussing possibility of a lab leak is not a problem, it's the deliberate bioweapon aspect that they're banning. "The goal of this policy is to remove common viral hoax…

How are these Fact Checkers to decide on a complicated and political question like a Wuhan lab leak hypothesis? They have a claim to truth, based on what credentials or mechanisms, that the rest of us don't have access to?

https://youtu.be/l7o4A16QCxE

Hidden camera investigation of Facebook moderators (ie fact checkers)

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#326

Post by koheripbal »

gregwebs wrote: post #271
Ancapistani wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. I think that it is at least somewhat likely that it was the result of the lab's activities, but your assertion here has a huge dose of selection bias. If the virology labs studying coronaviruses were placed randomly around the world, you'd be correct - but t…

China is a big country. Wuhan is 900km away from the bat caves that are believed to be the breeding ground for these viruses.

...but Wuhan is also 0km away from the wet markets that sell meat sourced x00km away near and around the bat caves.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#327

Post by mc32 »

ryandrake wrote: post #303
hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

Worrying about where it came from is misdirection to distract us from the real issue that you pointed out: That nearly all countries totally failed to effectively deal with it and contain the spread, resulting in a body count that should be totally unacceptable. We got extraordinarily lucky that it wasn't super deadly. Imagine if the next COVID is 20X deadlier and hits uniformly across age ranges. We're doomed if we…

And maybe people should not have dismissed it as a crockpot idea that should be dismissed out or hand and had Twitter suspensions over mentioning it.

And maybe if it was a leak and the world had been warned of the dangers then they would have locked down movement to and from the origin before it began to spread internationally.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#328

Post by dragontamer »

echelon wrote: post #193
dragontamer wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China is building up its navy to protect itself. If they lose the South China Sea, they could be blockaded and starved of energy, resources, and food. They're building to reach parity with the US Navy or even outgun it, and they're trying to stall long enough that they can win should there be an encounter. China has absolutely no chance to meet head-to-head against a US Carrier Strike Group on neutral territory. Ab…

> China has absolutely no chance to meet head-to-head against a US Carrier Strike Group on neutral territory. Absolutely none, and the US has TEN Carrier Strike Groups. Right now. But take a look at the shipbuilding output they've achieved. In ten to twenty years, China could easily rival the US Navy.

China has many smaller Missile Destroyers or Frigates, and has far more production than the USA right now. True.

However, smaller ships aren't going to do jack-diddly squat against a Carrier Strike Group in a neutral situation (ie: both sides meet in Antarctica). F-18s have an effective strike range of over 1000-miles.

Submarines might have some theoretical advantages, but the 110,000 ton Ford-class Carriers moves faster than pretty much every submarine on the planet, so Submarines literally cannot speed up fast enough to engage.

----------

Those smaller Chinese Ships are going to rely upon a lot of Air support + Cruise Missile support from the mainland if they ever wish to actually engage with a US Carrier Strike Group.

Staying within the protective cover of SAM (against air threats), Cruise Missiles (against the CSG themselves)... and providing a launch platform for various missiles, Chinese Destroyers probably can do a job in a hypothetical fight vs US Navy within the confines of the South China Sea.

But once they leave the protective cover of China's mainland... its all over. Swarms of F18s will just launch missiles at all the Destroyers, while the Carrier Strike Group sits back a thousand miles away.

--------

That's why the question isn't about those small Chinese ships (even though China is making a lot of them). The big question is about the performance of those Chinese Carriers. At 70,000 tons or so, they're much lighter than the 110,000 ton Ford-class carriers.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#329

Post by Fricken »

btilly wrote: post #210
temp8964 wrote: post #140

Wow. Why every comment questioned your argument is downvoted or even dead? > is-ought 34 minutes ago [dead] [–] > Can you link to something that proves this is the criteria used for lab placement? How is this even dead? It's only asking for a reference.

Clearly there are a bunch of people voting down anything that is too critical of China. WHY there are a bunch of people voting that down I leave to others to speculate. But I'm going to vote up any verifiable factual statements that have been voted down.

There are no pertinent facts anywhere in this thread. There are no pertinent facts available. We just don't know, and likely won't ever know.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#330

Post by [deleted] »

pageandrew wrote: post #280
hayst4ck wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't find that compelling. Our own US scientists specifically stated they did not see the biological markers of tampering, and I don't see any reason we shouldn't be trusting them. I think there are a lot of people who want to believe China is evil incarnate and things are just as black and white as that. I think that's a mental shortcut with easy emotional payout. I would encourage you to read the link. Here is a…

I don't think China is evil incarnate, but I do know that it is confirmed that they have performed GOF research ( https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments... ), that there were reports in 2018 that they were not following proper lab safety practices ( https://www.businessinsider.com/us-officials-raised-alarms-a... ), and that the Chinese military was engaged in secret experimentation. This is all…

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