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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#101

Post by sudosysgen »

ekianjo wrote: post #90
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not waynesonfire, but seriously, what is up with people making deliberately misleading claims (e.g. highlighting it is not found in influenza viruses, even though covid virus is not influenza), and then providing a link that specifically debunks the implication they are trying to make . It's like people just depend on nobody following the links they post.

> However SARS‐CoV‐2 is the only lineage B coronavirus found with one It's unusual even for coronavirus.

Do you expect it to be unusual for coronaviruses that manage to cause a pandemic? Even if it is rare, as long as it is not unique, those priors are unbalanced.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#102

Post by whimsicalism »

viklove wrote: post #19
Simulacra wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree with your statement, please do not insinuate or ask if the commenter has read the article. It is against the rules. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

HN has such odd and draconian rules that should really come under scrutiny more often. We're not allowed to think or say certain things? What?

I don't believe anything was said about what you are allowed to think :)

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#103

Post by airhead969 »

Johnny555 wrote: post #91
kneel wrote: post #66

IMO it's very likely to have originated in a lab leak. It doesn't matter much however since there is no evidence, and any evidence of such will likely be covered up. Being culpable for a disaster on this scale would be unprecedented in the economic reparations, so much so that we'll likely never find the origins.

I think that's how so many conspiracy theories spread. "IMO, I think it's very likely that the moon landings were faked. It doesn't matter since there is no evidence of the fake landings and any evidence of such will likely be covered up, like the way they got scientists to pretend that there are retroreflectors on the moon". As long as people believe that evidence is covered up, then they can believe anything.

It's easier to believe in a grand conspiracy to make one seem special and part of a tribe than accept the banality, incompetence, chaos, and coincidences of reality.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#105

Post by loveistheanswer »

0xcafecafe wrote: post #38

While the headline talks about covid, I found other bits of the article scary. For instance the supposed lax handling of pathogens like smallpox. While I would trust the worldwide scientific community for covid origin theories, I cannot look past the egregious safety violations reported in the article (if true).

>While I would trust the worldwide scientific community for covid origin theories

Which scientific community are you referring to? There are countless scientists who have been arguing against the risks of gain of function research for many years. Why are pro-gain of function scientists deathly silent now about the supposed benefits of their research?

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#106

Post by echelon »

totalZero wrote: post #49
crx07 wrote: post #21

This has honestly been my unbiased opinion since essentially day 1. I believe that the release was almost certainly a complete accident, but there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. The denialists, including the WHO and CDC and everyone else, need to get real and own up to what happened and figure ou…

Sometimes diplomacy means you smile when you don't want to smile. WHO has to play politics until we get this virus under control (ie, vaccines distributed worldwide). If WHO blames China now, in the thick of things, it would damage the world's ability to further study the origins of the virus and the results of Chinese research. Chinese vaccines are being used and studied in many countries worldwide and that is a goo…

> CDC and other US government officials, on the other hand, must ratchet up their criticism of China as well as WHO. I agree with you there. It's alarming that there are so few PR ramifications for China.

The US relies on Chinese manufacturing. If trade ends, the West will suffer. Consumer and industrial goods can't be built, which could incredibly damage the economy.

Manufacturing is shifting to other countries - Vietnam, India, etc. It's been driven by rising costs in China, but we're seeing an acceleration to de-risk the supply chain. TSM is being asked to build fabs in the US. Slowly, the most strategic pieces are being maneuvered.

China is building up its navy to protect itself. If they lose the South China Sea, they could be blockaded and starved of energy, resources, and food. They're building to reach parity with the US Navy or even outgun it, and they're trying to stall long enough that they can win should there be an encounter.

The US and its allies are ramping up criticism of China, and you can see it in diplomatic activity, news, and social media. The rhetoric will grow until they're ready to shift from soft negotiations to taking a hard line.

The game is being played right now.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#107

Post by Graffur »

dang wrote: post #59
jtdev wrote: post #46

That’s curious. I wonder if the frozen seafood origin hypothesis holds any merit, or if it’s just an attempt by the CCP to divert attention from what seems to be the far more likely lab leak hypothesis... I’m inclined to believe that the CCP is being disingenuous.

Please stop posting unsubstantive and/or flamebait comments to HN—especially on divisive topics. The guidelines are clear on this, and we ban accounts that break them repeatedly. Given that we've had to warn you half a dozen times now, it's time for you to review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and fix this.

As someone else who has been unfairly flagged on this thread, I will stand up for jtdev. A quick scan of their profile and posts show they have been here 2-3 years. They have a small number of on topic submissions about CEOs, technologies and science. Their posts are normal enough. There's the obvious theme that they're not in the Woke club though.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#109

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

ekianjo wrote: post #90
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not waynesonfire, but seriously, what is up with people making deliberately misleading claims (e.g. highlighting it is not found in influenza viruses, even though covid virus is not influenza), and then providing a link that specifically debunks the implication they are trying to make . It's like people just depend on nobody following the links they post.

> However SARS‐CoV‐2 is the only lineage B coronavirus found with one It's unusual even for coronavirus.

It's really only unusual for lineage B coronaviruses:

> Although they only emerge under artificial conditions in influenza viruses, these furin cleavage sites are found within several branches of the coronavirus family tree.

Even the original quote, "In fact, no influenza virus with a furin cleavage site has ever been found in nature" leaves out something important:

> the fact remains that every highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, defined by having a furin cleavage site, has either been found on commercial poultry farms that create the pseudo‐natural conditions necessary for serial passage, or created in laboratories with gain‐of‐function serial passage experiments.

That is, the authors are defining "in nature" not to include commercial poultry farms.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#110

Post by hetspookjee »

totalZero wrote: post #49
crx07 wrote: post #21

This has honestly been my unbiased opinion since essentially day 1. I believe that the release was almost certainly a complete accident, but there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. The denialists, including the WHO and CDC and everyone else, need to get real and own up to what happened and figure ou…

Sometimes diplomacy means you smile when you don't want to smile. WHO has to play politics until we get this virus under control (ie, vaccines distributed worldwide). If WHO blames China now, in the thick of things, it would damage the world's ability to further study the origins of the virus and the results of Chinese research. Chinese vaccines are being used and studied in many countries worldwide and that is a goo…

I don't understand why WHO is selling it's creditiblity in trade for politics. What is there to gain? Perhaps I am too short sighted but I cannot believe that this is ever the right compromise to take.

I also don't understand why they even had the slighest faith in a reliable investigation. After all these months of pushing back on researching accessing the site, they still bowed to their whims. How does this help the argument that it's better to just suck it up?

One thing I am really interested in to read more on is a historians analysis of the parallels one can draw from the period rising up to World War 2, and more importantly, how the rest of the world acted back then. When Germany was dissolving all their democratic processes, and started labellling jews, what did the rest of the world do? What did their neighbours do? Did they just happily keep on conducting business?

I have read slightly into it, but placing the responses of the countries at that time in the right context really requires some solid knowledge of history. If anyone knows interesting articles to read about the responses of the world during that time: I'm very interested.

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