Attributes and predictors of long Covid • Hacker News Board

Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid

#21

Post by DrBazza » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 1:05 PM UTC

vanderZwan wrote: post #7

Something I've noticed: when people in my surroundings bring up worries of long-term effects of the fast-tracked vaccines, they somehow tend to not consider the unknown long-term effects of covid. Even though the argument that we cannot know the long term effects yet should apply equally. When I bring this up they do seem receptive to this argument though, provided I'm not dismissive of their own skepticism. I'm not…

> fast-tracked vaccines

It would be accurate to say that these vaccines have been developed in the optimal time, and vaccines are usually 'slow-tracked'. Nothing has been rushed here in the sense of cutting clinical corners. The development of these vaccines has gone through the same phases of testing that every other vaccine has.

Things that slow down all vaccine development: funding, finding volunteers for testing groups, committee approval for the development of vaccines, submission and resubmission of proposals to name but a few.

All of these barriers were removed by governments throwing cash at the various companies, and the companies and universities themselves removing barriers.

Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid

#22

Post by IfOnlyYouKnew » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 1:07 PM UTC

lofi_lory wrote: post #2

> Long COVID was characterized by symptoms of fatigue, headache, dyspnea and anosmia and was more likely with increasing age and body mass index and female sex. Experiencing more than five symptoms during the first week of illness was associated with long COVID. A bit disappointing information. So, first week severity indicates risk for long covid? Or is it multiorgan involvement independent from severity?

It's amount of symptoms, not severity.

Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid

#23

Post by standardUser » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 1:09 PM UTC

greenwich26 wrote: post #9

vanderZwan wrote: post #7

Something I've noticed: when people in my surroundings bring up worries of long-term effects of the fast-tracked vaccines, they somehow tend to not consider the unknown long-term effects of covid. Even though the argument that we cannot know the long term effects yet should apply equally. When I bring this up they do seem receptive to this argument though, provided I'm not dismissive of their own skepticism. I'm not…

You can't neglect the prior. In most European countries, somewhere around 5% of the population might have been infected with covid. Up to around 10% in the US. Therefore, to have comparable posterior probabilities for long-term side effects, you would need the side effects argument not to merely "apply equally", but to favour the vaccine over the disease by a factor of about 10.

The CDC estimates around 25% of the US population has been infected so far.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid

#24

Post by IfOnlyYouKnew » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 1:09 PM UTC

brb92 wrote: post #10

> For the reduced logistic regression model, the score was given by the following formula: S = 0.259503 × NumberSymptoms + 0.055457 × age − 0.633310 × sex − 3.20 (where sex is encoded as 1 − female/2 − male) Where ‘NumberSymptoms’ corresponds to the sum of different symptoms experienced over the first week among the list of 14 symptoms reported on daily logs. This score was then transformed to a probability using the…

No. A woman, at any age and number of symptoms, has twice the risk of a man. Which was already well-known before.

Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid

#25

Post by jerf » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 1:19 PM UTC

IfOnlyYouKnew wrote: post #20

greenwich26 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't neglect the prior. In most European countries, somewhere around 5% of the population might have been infected with covid. Up to around 10% in the US. Therefore, to have comparable posterior probabilities for long-term side effects, you would need the side effects argument not to merely "apply equally", but to favour the vaccine over the disease by a factor of about 10.

Without vaccination, the chance of eventually catching the disease is just about 100%. Yes, any single person may try and hope to be protected by herd immunity. But there are serious doubts that can be achieved given some variants' higher virulence and expected levels of eventual vaccine uptake considering justifiable reasons. Meanwhile, long-term harms from vaccination are entirely speculative. There isn't even a re…

"Meanwhile, long-term harms from vaccination are entirely speculative."

I don't think this is a safe thing to say about mRNA vaccines, which are brand new. IIRC one of the vaccines is essentially an old-style vaccine made for COVID, and for that one you may be able to reasonably say that, but not the new stuff that has never been mass-deployed before.

Nor does this mean they're automatically bad either. There's always a first time for something new. I'm just saying that it isn't really justified to apply decades of experience with one type of vaccine to another blindly.

Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid

#26

Post by adolph » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 1:22 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #17

adolph wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>my friends who rely on emotion-based arguments Isn’t every argument based in emotion? Do unpalatable facts have a strong track record of success in arguments?

No. A lot of modern physics for example still seems objectively wrong when hearing about it as a student. Physical experiments and math has converted a lot of skeptics into believing some very “strange” things about how our universe works.

Are you saying that over a time period longer than a conversation or argument people who committed to learning a topic in depth were able to alter prior beliefs that were based in their lived experiences?

Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid

#27

Post by maxerickson » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 1:33 PM UTC

jerf wrote: post #25

IfOnlyYouKnew wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without vaccination, the chance of eventually catching the disease is just about 100%. Yes, any single person may try and hope to be protected by herd immunity. But there are serious doubts that can be achieved given some variants' higher virulence and expected levels of eventual vaccine uptake considering justifiable reasons. Meanwhile, long-term harms from vaccination are entirely speculative. There isn't even a re…

"Meanwhile, long-term harms from vaccination are entirely speculative." I don't think this is a safe thing to say about mRNA vaccines, which are brand new. IIRC one of the vaccines is essentially an old-style vaccine made for COVID, and for that one you may be able to reasonably say that, but not the new stuff that has never been mass-deployed before. Nor does this mean they're automatically bad either. There's alway…

The other US approved vaccine is a live viral carrier that has only been used fairly recently in experimental treatments (I think maybe an Ebola vaccine using it got approved recently?).

Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid

#28

Post by matwood » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 1:37 PM UTC

vanderZwan wrote: post #12

greenwich26 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't neglect the prior. In most European countries, somewhere around 5% of the population might have been infected with covid. Up to around 10% in the US. Therefore, to have comparable posterior probabilities for long-term side effects, you would need the side effects argument not to merely "apply equally", but to favour the vaccine over the disease by a factor of about 10.

You're not wrong, but my priority is to ensure that my friends who rely on emotion-based arguments (fear of the unknown regarding the vaccines, dismissing the risks of covid and taking too few precautions as a result) to be safe and to not contribute to keeping the pandemic going. Going this deep into statistics would just lose them, because I'd come across as trying to intimidate them into taking my viewpoint on how…

Not sure why you were downvoted because what you are talking about is the reality on the ground for a lot of people. I'm dealing with this with some family members now. "I heard everyone in Europe is getting blood clots from their vaccine." is a common statement even though it's factually untrue. It's not coming from a place of logic, but emotion and has to be handled appropriately, otherwise you lose them.

Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid

#29

Post by Retric » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 1:42 PM UTC

adolph wrote: post #26

Retric wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. A lot of modern physics for example still seems objectively wrong when hearing about it as a student. Physical experiments and math has converted a lot of skeptics into believing some very “strange” things about how our universe works.

Are you saying that over a time period longer than a conversation or argument people who committed to learning a topic in depth were able to alter prior beliefs that were based in their lived experiences?

An argument isn’t some specific length of time. A 20 year bet on some outcome is a single argument that takes decades.

Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid

#30

Post by sdenton4 » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 1:52 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #17

adolph wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>my friends who rely on emotion-based arguments Isn’t every argument based in emotion? Do unpalatable facts have a strong track record of success in arguments?

No. A lot of modern physics for example still seems objectively wrong when hearing about it as a student. Physical experiments and math has converted a lot of skeptics into believing some very “strange” things about how our universe works.

Acceptance of some of those strange observations relied on the older generation - with strong emotional attachment to the old way of looking at things - dying off.