Attributes and predictors of long Covid
nature.com
Attributes and predictors of long Covid
1–10 of 77 posts
Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid
#2> Long COVID was characterized by symptoms of fatigue, headache, dyspnea and anosmia and was more likely with increasing age and body mass index and female sex. Experiencing more than five symptoms during the first week of illness was associated with long COVID.
A bit disappointing information. So, first week severity indicates risk for long covid? Or is it multiorgan involvement independent from severity?
Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid
#3> Long COVID was characterized by symptoms of fatigue, headache, dyspnea and anosmia and was more likely with increasing age and body mass index and female sex. Experiencing more than five symptoms during the first week of illness was associated with long COVID. A bit disappointing information. So, first week severity indicates risk for long covid? Or is it multiorgan involvement independent from severity?
It's surprising how long it takes to draw solid conclusions, considering the amount of "live" cases to draw from.
Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid
#4> Long COVID was characterized by symptoms of fatigue, headache, dyspnea and anosmia and was more likely with increasing age and body mass index and female sex. Experiencing more than five symptoms during the first week of illness was associated with long COVID. A bit disappointing information. So, first week severity indicates risk for long covid? Or is it multiorgan involvement independent from severity?
It's surprising how long it takes to draw solid conclusions, considering the amount of "live" cases to draw from.
Why is that surprising? The whole descriptor 'long Covid' suggests that there is an element of time involved that is rather longer than the initial round of the disease itself.
Many diseases take years to run their course, I would expect the real damage toll from long Covid to not be visible for years to come rather than that we would somehow be able to predict the course of the disease before we have real world data showing what it can be like.
The number of cases has no effect on that at all.
Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid
#5> Long COVID was characterized by symptoms of fatigue, headache, dyspnea and anosmia and was more likely with increasing age and body mass index and female sex. Experiencing more than five symptoms during the first week of illness was associated with long COVID. A bit disappointing information. So, first week severity indicates risk for long covid? Or is it multiorgan involvement independent from severity?
Many severe long covid cases are benign in the acute phase. Multiorgan involvement seems to me like it 1) doesn't occur in the first week 2) doesn't occur in benign cases.
Also, from the abstract: This model could be used to identify individuals at risk of long COVID for trials of prevention or treatment and to plan education and rehabilitation services. So this is not about "first week of illness indicates COVID severity" per se, this is about creating a prediction model to triage cases. It makes sense to focus on early symptoms for that.
Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid
#6Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's surprising how long it takes to draw solid conclusions, considering the amount of "live" cases to draw from.
Why is that surprising? The whole descriptor 'long Covid' suggests that there is an element of time involved that is rather longer than the initial round of the disease itself. Many diseases take years to run their course, I would expect the real damage toll from long Covid to not be visible for years to come rather than that we would somehow be able to predict the course of the disease before we have real world data…
I think they probably mean that, if there’s lots of cases, then there’s (in principle) lots of available information to study, regarding whatever mechanisms are behind the long covid effects we’ve seen so far.
Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid
#7Something I've noticed: when people in my surroundings bring up worries of long-term effects of the fast-tracked vaccines, they somehow tend to not consider the unknown long-term effects of covid. Even though the argument that we cannot know the long term effects yet should apply equally.
When I bring this up they do seem receptive to this argument though, provided I'm not dismissive of their own skepticism. I'm not trying to convince them to get vaccinated, but I do wish that my friends stay safe until the pandemic is over at least, so I ask them to please be consistent and be worried about the unknown long-term effects of getting covid. Especially given that for the latter we do know that it's an actual disease that has already taken lots of lives and given lots of people long-term symptoms.
Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid
#8> Long COVID was characterized by symptoms of fatigue, headache, dyspnea and anosmia and was more likely with increasing age and body mass index and female sex. Experiencing more than five symptoms during the first week of illness was associated with long COVID. A bit disappointing information. So, first week severity indicates risk for long covid? Or is it multiorgan involvement independent from severity?
You could get over the 5-symptom limit in this study just with knackered lungs.
Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid
#9Something I've noticed: when people in my surroundings bring up worries of long-term effects of the fast-tracked vaccines, they somehow tend to not consider the unknown long-term effects of covid. Even though the argument that we cannot know the long term effects yet should apply equally. When I bring this up they do seem receptive to this argument though, provided I'm not dismissive of their own skepticism. I'm not…
You can't neglect the prior. In most European countries, somewhere around 5% of the population might have been infected with covid. Up to around 10% in the US. Therefore, to have comparable posterior probabilities for long-term side effects, you would need the side effects argument not to merely "apply equally", but to favour the vaccine over the disease by a factor of about 10.
Re: Attributes and predictors of long Covid
#10> For the reduced logistic regression model, the score was given by the following formula:
S = 0.259503 × NumberSymptoms + 0.055457 × age − 0.633310 × sex − 3.20 (where sex is encoded as 1 − female/2 − male)
Where ‘NumberSymptoms’ corresponds to the sum of different symptoms experienced over the first week among the list of 14 symptoms reported on daily logs. This score was then transformed to a probability using the formula: 1/(1 + exp(−score))
> App users were disproportionately female, and those over 70 years of age were underrepresented, which could increase or decrease our estimate of the prevalence and duration of long COVID.
So basically if the patient is a 30 y.o man with 7 symptoms has almost twice more chance of having long covid than a woman on the same conditions ? Hmmmmmmmmmmm