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Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

face2faceafrica.com

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Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#91

Post by arcticfox »

tyingq wrote: post #60

"With Ghana’s move towards processing its own cocoa, the world, and not just Switzerland, will experience a massive shortage since Ghana is responsible for about 45% of the world’s cocoa." That seems like bigger news than the headline.

It's also a massive assumption... first of all that Ghana won't be able to process & export chocolate in significant quantities, and second of all that other nations that are paying the LID won't be able to pick up the Swiss slack.

Surely the cocoa won't just be burned, someone will find a way to process it.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#92

Post by [deleted] »

bsanr2 wrote: post #19

This is similar to the situation with Global South coffee exports, wherein actual growers only receive a fraction of the revenue from consumer sales (despite the relatively cheap and easy value-add of roasting or conversion into instant coffee) because of logistical concerns, and because Europeans and American just plain do not buy African roast coffee when it appears on their shelves. If these countries were to deci…

[deleted]

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#93

Post by sct202 »

jelling wrote: post #40
tziki wrote: post #10

I wish them success, but my prediction is that in a few years they'll have no successful products and the world's chocolate makers have found new suppliers. You can't just make a decision to create successful products.

Same. I am concerned they are overlooking how much marketing mind-share Switzerland has globally for chocolate. Ghana could get there but it will not happen overnight, more like a generation. Distribution will also take time. Give that cocoa is their number 3 export - and I suspect most of that is in raw form - I really hope this doesn’t backfire. They need foreign currency. A wiser path might be to build up global c…

They can process the beans and no one will notice. There are a lot of cocoa processors who produce bulk chocolate for other brands who melt that down to form their own products. Companies like Barry Callebaut or Valrhona primarily supply other companies with chocolate.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#94

Post by SamBam »

tyingq wrote: post #60

"With Ghana’s move towards processing its own cocoa, the world, and not just Switzerland, will experience a massive shortage since Ghana is responsible for about 45% of the world’s cocoa." That seems like bigger news than the headline.

If Ghana is able to process its own cocoa at the same rate as the Swiss, or at least accelerate to such productions soon, then the world won't see a massive shortage of chocolate, just of raw cocoa.

It seems reasonable to me. My understanding is that the ones adding the value, by turning the raw material into chocolate, are the ones making the majority of the profits.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#95

Post by ArkanExplorer »

fogihujy wrote: post #62
sadmann1 wrote: post #3

How will Switzerland counter this change of events

The first response will probably be for the chocolate producers to try to source the raw materials from other sources. This may or may not result in production ramping up elsewhere, or even new producers appearing as increased prices could make production financially viable in places it previously wasn't. Depending on how the markets react, prices may go up, and many of the really cheap brands could disappear from th…

CO2 tariffs: https://www.bcg.com/publications/2020/how-an-eu-carbon-borde...

Ghana's electricity supply is 51% fossil fuel, whereas Switzerland is 2.5%.

But its a lot easier to build solar plants in Accra than in Bern...

I think that Europe is at a fundamental disadvantage over the medium/long-term, due to the burden of its welfare states.

Its surprising to see that taxes over basically all categories are lower in Ghana than in Europe (except corporate taxes).

The minimum monthly aged pension is €6.60 in Ghana, vs €1,080 in Switzerland. Life expectancy is 20 years longer in Switzerland than Ghana, but the retirement age is only 4 years later.

The end effect of these extremely early and generous pensions is that economies become stratified, to ensure that these pension payments are maintained, and taxes are heaped on individuals to pay for it.

Europe needs a widespread increase of the aged pension age to 70, cease all migration from regions with high usage of welfare state service, and begin a large, multi-generational modular nuclear power plant building plan.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#96

Post by dominicl »

pydry wrote: post #53
edflsafoiewq wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Free trade is usually done on a tit-for-tat basis. I think the GP is saying they should allow protectionist policies without "tatting".

This is effectively how the US built up the industries of Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. The reason these countries were allowed to do it where others are not was because the US wanted strategically placed powerful allies in the region. There probably wouldn't be a Japanese electronics/car industry, for instance, if the Soviets hadn't spooked the the US in the 40s.

I'm curious about this argument. Haven't heard the "tiger states" growth attributed solely to US policies. Any links/pointers to those advantages that were granted these states but not other developing countries at the time?

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#97

Post by brodock »

Chris2048 wrote: post #85
TeMPOraL wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Other points are already addressed in different comments, but to address this one: > Ghana doesn't have all of the layers of industry necessary to support development and export of products i.e. there are no market buyers at any reasonable price. Per the article, they literally control half of the world's cocoa. This means they get to define what "a reasonable price" is, as long as the rest of the world wants to keep…

The first question is: where are the main markets for chocolate? If Ghana loses access to a large percentage of the global chocolate market, controlling half the supply is as much a liability. The second question is: Is there any reason cocoa can't be grown elsewhere, or the second biggest producer can't increase production?

There is a location/clima reason. Cocoa grows (well) only in a certain part of the world around the equator line as it requires tropical weather with regular rains and small dry seasons.

It may be possible to use artificial techniques to grow it elsewhere, but I'm assuming it's not economically viable or you get a product with worst quality in the end

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#98

Post by conjectures »

m12k wrote: post #15

I'm reading the book The Divide at the moment. It makes the argument that it takes time and the right conditions to build up an industry - infrastructure needs to be built, education and a skilled labor pool with the necessary know-how as well. To begin with, a fledgling industry in a developing country cannot compete with those of already industrialized countries - these are already so effective that they can underc…

If you've not read it, 'Kicking Away the Ladder' by Ha-Joon Chang is a great book on this topic.

It has a good deal of historical detail on what developed countries did themselves to become developed with respect to IP and protection.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#99

Post by sokoloff »

austincheney wrote: post #49
sokoloff wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The (effective) demand for beans produced in Ghana just went way down with this policy enactment though, right?

I doubt it. If anything it will restrict market availability which will only increase demand, but the best way to know is watch the price for beans.

I agree that watching the market is the best way to judge the balance.

I'd expect the price for beans as-delivered to Switzerland is likely to go up. The price for beans as-offered in Ghana is likely to go down. The latter matters more to Ghana cocoa farmers.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#100

Post by throwaway210222 »

dahfizz wrote: post #90
throwaway210222 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I often hear this [phrasing] in the 'first world' and surely you don't 'allow' or 'disallow' internal policies to an sovereign nation?" Forget about the third-world, right now the USA is not-allowing Germany the right to build a pipeline with Russia! First-world - check, sovereign - check, allies - check.

> the USA is not-allowing Germany the right to build a pipeline with Russia! The USA is threatening trade sanctions if Germany builds the pipeline. I would not call that "not-allowing". That seems to be OP's whole point. The US is responding as a sovereign nation to actions of other sovereign nations. Phraseology like "allow" and "disallow" are not accurate. If Germany does the cost-benefit analysis and decides to ca…

Nonsense. The USA would not have gone to all the trouble to pass legislation to sanction Nordstream2 if they didn't think it would be effective.

The USA didn't just do it to voice their displeasure: they could have done that with an email.

They truly think its enough of a hammer to stop the pipeline.

Hence "won't allow"

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