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Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

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Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#41

Post by fakedang »

jariel wrote: post #24
m12k wrote: post #15

I'm reading the book The Divide at the moment. It makes the argument that it takes time and the right conditions to build up an industry - infrastructure needs to be built, education and a skilled labor pool with the necessary know-how as well. To begin with, a fledgling industry in a developing country cannot compete with those of already industrialized countries - these are already so effective that they can underc…

So Saudi Arabia, UAE, Canada and Saudi Arabia are 'stuck' selling natural resources? I think it's probably a much better plant to extract a good deal of wealth from the natural resource and invest it in other areas of higher value creation, even in the same vertical. There's a good chance that Ghana's policies are needlessly constrained. More obviously there are 100 things Ghana could do to improve living conditions…

> Saudi Arabia, UAE, Canada and Saudi Arabia are 'stuck' selling natural resources?

Actually yes. The trend happening there is reminiscent of the spice trade. The UAE will stay afloat because of its massive externally invested wealth fund and Canada's liberal policy will keep the talent coming (although imo destroying the local population's affordability). But Saudi Arabia has a huge problem right now, since they squandered a lot of their oil wealth and are in no position to rely on immigrant growth - especially when native Saudis are not employable at all. I know for a fact that the UAE actually monitors intelligence in Saudi Arabia to make sure that a revolt or an insurgency doesn't happen there. OPEC annual meetings are literally a mercantilist exercise.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#42

Post by lr4444lr »

m12k wrote: post #15

I'm reading the book The Divide at the moment. It makes the argument that it takes time and the right conditions to build up an industry - infrastructure needs to be built, education and a skilled labor pool with the necessary know-how as well. To begin with, a fledgling industry in a developing country cannot compete with those of already industrialized countries - these are already so effective that they can underc…

Okay, but if local goods can't be produced at a price that is commensurately low, then the fledgingly country's wage earners have their purchasing power reduced, with less discretionary income to further their own educational and business pursuits. I think this thesis you are referring to takes for granted that the tariffs are going to be responsibly used by the governing class setting them to invest in the long term prospects of their people and not siphoned off into corrupt ends. That's a pretty tall assumption.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#43

Post by m12k »

luckylion wrote: post #39
jariel wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So Saudi Arabia, UAE, Canada and Saudi Arabia are 'stuck' selling natural resources? I think it's probably a much better plant to extract a good deal of wealth from the natural resource and invest it in other areas of higher value creation, even in the same vertical. There's a good chance that Ghana's policies are needlessly constrained. More obviously there are 100 things Ghana could do to improve living conditions…

> So Saudi Arabia, UAE, Canada and Saudi Arabia are 'stuck' selling natural resources? Canada maybe not so much, but Saudi Arabia and the UAE? Yeah, and I think they understand that as well. If we have a fusion breakthrough next year, what will Saudi Arabia export besides Wahhabism?

The Saudi royal family is busy buying as much of Silicon Valley as they can, to ensure they can still live atop a mountain of cash once the oil runs out. As for the rest of the country - yeah, they are royally fucked (pun intended) since no other industry than oil was ever developed.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#44

Post by TeMPOraL »

luckylion wrote: post #39
jariel wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So Saudi Arabia, UAE, Canada and Saudi Arabia are 'stuck' selling natural resources? I think it's probably a much better plant to extract a good deal of wealth from the natural resource and invest it in other areas of higher value creation, even in the same vertical. There's a good chance that Ghana's policies are needlessly constrained. More obviously there are 100 things Ghana could do to improve living conditions…

> So Saudi Arabia, UAE, Canada and Saudi Arabia are 'stuck' selling natural resources? Canada maybe not so much, but Saudi Arabia and the UAE? Yeah, and I think they understand that as well. If we have a fusion breakthrough next year, what will Saudi Arabia export besides Wahhabism?

Or more likely, what happens when the oil wells eventually run dry? Or even, what happens in the years before, when those wells start producing less and less oil?

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#45

Post by barry-cotter »

zorked wrote: post #34
jariel wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So Saudi Arabia, UAE, Canada and Saudi Arabia are 'stuck' selling natural resources? I think it's probably a much better plant to extract a good deal of wealth from the natural resource and invest it in other areas of higher value creation, even in the same vertical. There's a good chance that Ghana's policies are needlessly constrained. More obviously there are 100 things Ghana could do to improve living conditions…

Do you have any specific knowledge about Ghanaian industry or is this just your opinion? Can you provide some sources for your claims?

Why would the Ghanaian government be any better at economic planning than the Argentinian or Indian ones? Sometimes industrial policy “works”, as in South Korea or Japan. But we have no strong reason to believe either would have failed to develop without government help. Hong Kong didn’t need it. People talk about the successes of industrial planning a lot but Argentina and India aren’t the only countries to piss away enormous resources propping up domestic industries that vanished in a puff of smoke as soon as they stopped being protected by tariffs or non tax trade barriers.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#46

Post by kar1181 »

oblio wrote: post #27
m12k wrote: post #15

I'm reading the book The Divide at the moment. It makes the argument that it takes time and the right conditions to build up an industry - infrastructure needs to be built, education and a skilled labor pool with the necessary know-how as well. To begin with, a fledgling industry in a developing country cannot compete with those of already industrialized countries - these are already so effective that they can underc…

> So the book argues that when developing countries are pressured into free trade agreements This should have been obvious since the Opium Wars and the Opening of Japan (see Commodore Matthew Perry). All developed countries are pro free trade for markets where they are strong and fiercely protectionist where they are not (or they consider those markets strategic priorities). I'm from Romania. Romania joined the EU in…

Similar things are happening in Croatia.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#47

Post by m12k »

lr4444lr wrote: post #42
m12k wrote: post #15

I'm reading the book The Divide at the moment. It makes the argument that it takes time and the right conditions to build up an industry - infrastructure needs to be built, education and a skilled labor pool with the necessary know-how as well. To begin with, a fledgling industry in a developing country cannot compete with those of already industrialized countries - these are already so effective that they can underc…

Okay, but if local goods can't be produced at a price that is commensurately low, then the fledgingly country's wage earners have their purchasing power reduced, with less discretionary income to further their own educational and business pursuits. I think this thesis you are referring to takes for granted that the tariffs are going to be responsibly used by the governing class setting them to invest in the long term…

Correct, the lower priced international goods help give the population of developing countries more purchasing power with their low wages, but at the cost of those wages never going up significantly. They get stuck in a local optimum - and unfortunately, yes, in order to escape from one of those, the first steps will always be toward something less optimal.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#48

Post by dgellow »

dalbasal wrote: post #16

Wait... Swiss diplomats still wear jack sparrow hats?!

No. The people you can see in the first picture aren't the diplomats themselves, it's just part of the tradition when welcoming country leaders. Watch the video, you will see that our current president has completely normal clothes.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#49

Post by austincheney »

sokoloff wrote: post #14
austincheney wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you think you're not being paid enough, increase the price along with creating your own products. Who makes that decision? Cocoa slavery is a thing because the economics of raw material pricing is complicated by many factors but the demand is very simple and very high.

The (effective) demand for beans produced in Ghana just went way down with this policy enactment though, right?

I doubt it. If anything it will restrict market availability which will only increase demand, but the best way to know is watch the price for beans.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#50

Post by barry-cotter »

m000 wrote: post #32

I really hope Ivory Coast will join Ghana on this, as they did for the LID bonus case. Together they account for over 2/3 of cocoa production. So, they can pretty much reshape the cocoa/chocolate market and break out of colonialistic trade agreements for the benefit of their people.

If the Swiss can buy from 1/3 of global producers that’s still plenty to satisfy the demand. And it’s not like the world is short of areas where cocoa would grow. It's not so long since Vietnam went from not growing coffee to being one of the world’s largest producers in under 20 years. I bet they could do it with cocoa too.
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