Covid herd immunity is probably impossible • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#71

Post by corty » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:23 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #41

HCoV-OC43 is an endemic betacoronavirus very similar to SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). We don't have significant herd immunity to it. Instead most people get infected as youths and develop a level of immunity which protects against severe symptoms during subsequent reinfections. But it still kills frail elderly and immunocompromised patients. We don't have proof of when HCoV-OC43 first emerged but circumstantial evidence ind…

Well, we are already at roughly .04% worldwide deaths, and that with quite some doing to contain the disease in most of the world. I would suggest that letting COVID-19 run it's course, the numbers would be quite a bit higher, and even with current measures in place and vaccinations underway, we will certainly exceed .06% by the end of the year.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#72

Post by Spivak » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

Uehreka wrote: post #34

Spivak wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone or as many 9’s as possible getting vaccinated and regular testing of anyone who can’t get the vaccine. Like it doesn’t have to be obnoxious but people who can’t get the vaccine should get tested when any symptoms show. It’s gonna be like the flu, but ya know deadlier, where the name of the game is control and stamping out outbreaks aggressively.

My gut feeling is that it would take strong and probably obnoxious enforcement to get us to one 9, we probably can’t even get two 9s (as in 99%, since some people think that means 99.99%) due to the number of people medically ineligible. And all that’s after approving any vaccine for kids, which we haven’t done yet.

I mean you think that 30+ million people in the US will be medically ineligible? Every single vaccine in my state is being administered as fast as they can ship them out. And after a while kids will have to be vaccinated to go to school same as we do with other vaccines. There is no current prediction that the vaccine won't be safe for kids.

The biggest groups that are ineligible are people with vaccine allergies and people with some autoimmune diseases which is vanishingly small.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#73

Post by _ph_ » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

a-dub wrote: post #64

virus spread is O(n^2) vaccination is O(n) if you want to beat the virus, seems the answer is to genetically engineer a weak variant with a bigger reproduction and let it rip? common cold with the covid-19 spike protein?

That wouldn't work as viruses don't compete for a limited resource (as long as they don't kill all infected). So unlike animals, where one species eats the food of the other and can drive it to extinction, this won't work.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#74

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:24 PM UTC

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #39

"vaccine hesitancy" Is that anti-vaxxers / laziness? Also, the US still has a very poorly designed system to promote herd immunity. Basically, you are charging people to contribute to herd immunity, rather than paying people to contribute to herd immunity. COVID isn't even some "perfect bug" that maximizes the strategic/policy failures of US healthcare and preys on our self-interest. It's a very very mild pandemic co…

[deleted]

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#75

Post by s_dev » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

a-dub wrote: post #64

virus spread is O(n^2) vaccination is O(n) if you want to beat the virus, seems the answer is to genetically engineer a weak variant with a bigger reproduction and let it rip? common cold with the covid-19 spike protein?

>seems the answer is to genetically engineer a weak variant with a bigger reproduction and let it rip?

A weaker varient of a disease often just is the vaccine.

As for letting her rip? I'd imagine the concern is future mutations that the vaccine can't surpress with it bouncing between people.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#76

Post by seneca » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

s_dev wrote: post #46

codeulike wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. Citation needed

The culling of the Mink Farms in Denmark should be evidence enough that it can travel through animals. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/05/pollution-fear... The fact that it already mutated going through a bat or pangolin before going back to humans suggests this is based in sound evidence.

> The culling of the Mink Farms in Denmark should be evidence enough that it can travel through animals.

Not that I think you're wrong, but that's circular logic. "Minks were culled because it can travel through animals. Minks being culled is evidence it can travel through animals."

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#77

Post by pandeiro » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

heavyset_go wrote: post #37

corty wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quite the same as if the vaccinations were causing herd immunity: Everyone who wants a shot will get one. Everyone on the vulnerable list should think really hard and really get a shot. The rest can suffer of their own free will. Or: make vaccinations mandatory if you want to protect those who cannot get a shot for health reasons. Remember, the reason is vaccination hesitancy or refusal. A perfect example of antisoci…

> Or: make vaccinations mandatory if you want to protect those who cannot get a shot for health reasons. To put this one in perspective, we already make vaccinations mandatory for public school attendance, and colleges go one step further and require vaccinations for attendance, too.

Does COVID vaccination prevent infection and transmission?

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#78

Post by Out_of_Characte » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

dukeofdoom wrote: post #59

I think the biggest win will be disinfecting shopping cart handles. A few years before, I even have posts about it, how it didn't make sense that these where not disinfected during Flu season. I thought it was disgusting actually since people are handling food, between touching these handles. We will probably get some innovation in face masks too. For anyone in the construction/renovation industry having access to be…

In the Netherlands, shopping carts and masks became mandatory in shops. The shopping cart is/was used as a way to keep track of the amount of people allowed in the store. This had the counter-productive effect of having to have someone disinfect shopping cart handles with alcohol or in worst case a do-it-yourself system where disinfectant is provided but only AFTER you've already had to touch the cart of physically prevent anyone from grabbing a cart by claiming the single disinfectant spray and paper before reaching the cart.

All of this could have been avoided if the handles were made of copper.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#79

Post by cogman10 » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:26 PM UTC

codeulike wrote: post #29

ping_pong wrote: post #18

First and foremost SARS-CoV-2 will never go away because it infects animals. Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. So it will never go away and we need to prepare for it. The main goal is to make it survivable, ie. akin to the flu, and not cause hospitals to get overrun like we have seen so many times around the world…

Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. Citation needed

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/covid19-is-surging-bu...

All the covid restrictions we've put in place have turned this flu season extremely mild. Meanwhile, we've seen far more COVID cases than flu cases.

I don't think it's a great leap to say "COVID is far more infectious than the flu" and it's not a great leap to say "The flu is a very infectious disease".

(I say all this knowing that the flu is several types of coronaviruses.)

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#80

Post by a-dub » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:26 PM UTC

reedjosh wrote: post #66

a-dub wrote: post #64

virus spread is O(n^2) vaccination is O(n) if you want to beat the virus, seems the answer is to genetically engineer a weak variant with a bigger reproduction and let it rip? common cold with the covid-19 spike protein?

I would prefer not to consent to a possibly dangerous 'weaker' version of COVID. This idea would completely take choice away and experiment on the human populace.

it's a last resort, it's true... but with variants mutating, i think we have to ask ourselves how much of a existential threat does this thing pose to the species.

moreover, what's the difference if vaccines become mandatory anyhow? all the vaccines do is expose humans to the spike protein... if anything, hacking the virus seems safer than hacking the human body to produce the spike protein.

i suppose it's hard to stop, where you can halt a vax campaign. i don't believe it would be impossible to establish a safety profile for a modified virus that is on par with those of the vaccines.

or everyone could just stay home for a month...