Covid herd immunity is probably impossible • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#51

Post by frenchy » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:14 PM UTC

nickysielicki wrote: post #26

sadmann1 wrote: post #3

Alright what's the way forward then

The way forward requires coming to terms with the fact that none of this needed to happen in the first place. This disease is really just not that deadly for non-elderly and non-obese people, and we've known for a while. Every institution under the sun failed. We say we need to trust the science, but the scientists were all wrong: LANL put out a preprint paper that estimated r0 at ~7 near the beginning of the pandemi…

> The scientists told us that a vaccine wouldn't be ready for years, it was actually ready in months

I remember the messaging at the beginning of last year being to expect at least 18 months, possibly much longer. For most people, 18 months will be about accurate, for a few people, they will have beat the estimate, but that's not surprising - it's an estimate. It's a hell of a lot more accurate than a couple months.

> these institutions are powerful and need to save face

You just explained above that these institutions are not powerful, and that they have limititations. Which one of these are true?

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#52

Post by ahupp » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:14 PM UTC

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #39

"vaccine hesitancy" Is that anti-vaxxers / laziness? Also, the US still has a very poorly designed system to promote herd immunity. Basically, you are charging people to contribute to herd immunity, rather than paying people to contribute to herd immunity. COVID isn't even some "perfect bug" that maximizes the strategic/policy failures of US healthcare and preys on our self-interest. It's a very very mild pandemic co…

> you are charging people to contribute to herd immunity

At least in my area (SF), vaccines are all free.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#53

Post by zamfi » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:14 PM UTC

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #39

"vaccine hesitancy" Is that anti-vaxxers / laziness? Also, the US still has a very poorly designed system to promote herd immunity. Basically, you are charging people to contribute to herd immunity, rather than paying people to contribute to herd immunity. COVID isn't even some "perfect bug" that maximizes the strategic/policy failures of US healthcare and preys on our self-interest. It's a very very mild pandemic co…

> Basically, you are charging people to contribute to herd immunity, rather than paying people to contribute to herd immunity.

No one in the US is being directly charged for any COVID vaccine.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#54

Post by mdocherty » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:14 PM UTC

nickysielicki wrote: post #26

sadmann1 wrote: post #3

Alright what's the way forward then

The way forward requires coming to terms with the fact that none of this needed to happen in the first place. This disease is really just not that deadly for non-elderly and non-obese people, and we've known for a while. Every institution under the sun failed. We say we need to trust the science, but the scientists were all wrong: LANL put out a preprint paper that estimated r0 at ~7 near the beginning of the pandemi…

I don't really wanna be part of a society that sacrifices the old and unfit at the expense of the whatever point you are trying to make. 500,000 COVID deaths across the country shouldn't be taken lightly.

I am surprised if you are taking all "scientists" as a collective group that you are focusing on early attempts to create models rather than the delivery of a vaccine (by scientists) and overall improvement of disease handling by scientists.

What powerful institutions need to save face exactly?

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#55

Post by heavyset_go » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:15 PM UTC

mtberatwork wrote: post #24

Trasmatta wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did the epidemiology community ever think that? I remember as early as March of last year, epidemiologists saying that herd immunity was not the way forward, and that this would likely become endemic. It seemed to mostly be reporters and politicians who pushed the herd immunity angle.

From the article: > and many scientists had thought that once people started being immunized en masse, herd immunity would permit society to return to normal.

> many scientists

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weasel_word#Forms

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#56

Post by chadash » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:15 PM UTC

heavyset_go wrote: post #21

The word for probably impossible is improbable.

While we are arguing semantics (and I agree that improbable would be a better word for the title) there is a difference. Improbable refers to odds. Probably impossible refers to odds of some binary outcome.

My winning the lottery is improbable. We all agree I have a shot at it, but it's very unlikely. But it's definitely not impossible, assuming it's not rigged.

Solving an NP problem with a P time algorithm is probably impossible. Either it can be done or it can't be. We suspect the latter, but we don't know 100%. Once we prove it one way or the other, it will will either be possible or impossible, in a binary sense.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#57

Post by hannob » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:15 PM UTC

sadmann1 wrote: post #3

Alright what's the way forward then

Vaccinate as many people as possible.

There's a lot between "herd immunity via vaccination" (very good) and "uncontrolled spread" (very bad). Protecting a lot of people is not as good as protecting everyone. But it's better than protecting nooone.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#58

Post by ncallaway » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:15 PM UTC

heavyset_go wrote: post #21

The word for probably impossible is improbable.

I disagree with this. I think think there's a significant difference between:

"This event is certainly possible, but only has a 10% chance of occurring" and "This event may or may not be possible we don't yet know, but our best guess is that it is not possible, and we are 90% confident in that prediction"

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#59

Post by dukeofdoom » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:15 PM UTC

I think the biggest win will be disinfecting shopping cart handles. A few years before, I even have posts about it, how it didn't make sense that these where not disinfected during Flu season. I thought it was disgusting actually since people are handling food, between touching these handles.

We will probably get some innovation in face masks too. For anyone in the construction/renovation industry having access to better working face masks will help prevent all kinds of lung damaging diseases.

There's probably other benefits, like more people working from home. But overall, its been terrible. I see homeless people in my city like never before. Huge surge in mental health issues too.And nursing homes with their current configurations are old people slaughter houses.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#60

Post by dehrmann » Thu, Mar 18, 2021, 5:15 PM UTC

heavyset_go wrote: post #31

ping_pong wrote: post #18

First and foremost SARS-CoV-2 will never go away because it infects animals. Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. So it will never go away and we need to prepare for it. The main goal is to make it survivable, ie. akin to the flu, and not cause hospitals to get overrun like we have seen so many times around the world…

> Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. So it will never go away and we need to prepare for it. This is also one of the main mechanisms for antibiotic resistance in bacteria that infect humans[1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimicrobial_resistance#Food_...

Long-term, antibiotic resistance scares me more than covid.