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Why in the world would you own bonds?

bridgewater.com

421–430 of 532 posts

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#421
post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While clearly not all of Hollywood portrays the industry accurately, from my perspective the movie was incredibly reflective of the players in the space, and the dynamics. I worked in the mortgage/CDO/CDS industry for 10yrs during that period (2005-2015). If anything, the movie was too positive. There aren't as many players like Steve Carell's character who are worried about the world, they are usually worried about…

> Another very accurate movie: "Margin Call" Jeremy Irons is fantastic in this film. The entire board room scene is amazing.

One of my answers for "Best scene about a meeting in film" (a super fun question).

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#422
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Consider US tax-free municipal bonds (munies). They are safe Are they? COVID19 has destroyed the tax-budgets of many states and cities. Deficit spending / stimulus is the current plan, but how long can States keep it up? I know there's been a stimulus bill just passed. But is it enough to get state budgets back in order after a tough year?

Not certain. Many if not most munies are supported by third party insurance, such as Lloyds of London in case of default. And all are supported by the power to tax. COVID is a temporary disruption that will hopefully soon pass. We'll see...

And AIG insured many mortgages. Remember 2008? Insurance is good for small-scale disasters, not large-scale ones like 2008 Mortgage bubble or COVID19.

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For most city level governments, things like Theater, Restaurants, Sport-events, Conferences, Gambling, Malls, Tourism, Hotels, Gasoline Tax (aka Driving), serve as a major leg of their tax revenue.

All of which has been severely restrained by current events.

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jamie Dimon has a reputation for brilliance. His Bitcoin comments were spot on, people criticizing them don’t understand the regulations banks live under. BTC may be great, but it has no intrinsic value and trading it is pure speculation. That’s not appropriate use of bank capital. It’s probably not an appropriate use of most peoples capital.

I'm not pointing to his commentary on Bitcoin or whatever. I was just stating a fact, that Dimon isn't considered brilliant by any Mark by industry insiders in finance, just lucky during 08. He has been wrong on a lot of things, even though I actually agree with his crypto thesis.

I’m not sure what you mean, his bank was the strongest and most highly capitalized during 2008. He famously had to be brow beaten into accepting federal bailout money.

And brilliant doesn’t mean perfect. he’s had his share of mistakes, but his business record is one of the best.

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#424
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just hold cash...

At a macro scale, holding cash isn't free either. If it's in a bank account then welp, $250k FDIC limit. If it's physical then welp, gotta rent and secure a warehouse that is literally chock full of cash for anyone to steal. Etc etc. Zero/negative interest rates are supposed to encourage productive activity, or at least spending.

>If it's in a bank account then welp, $250k FDIC limit.

Yeah I see people mention this a lot on HN. That particular number ($250k) has been increased over the years. It was partially upped in response to the S&L crisis. So do you really think T. Rowe Price is going to go under and you'll lose all your savings above $250k? Charles Schwab? Morgan Stanley? Even back when Lehman Brothers collapsed, no one lost cash holdings.

Unless you're with a mom and pop bank down the street, this doesn't strike me as a real threat.

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#425

We seem to have an entire generation of people who think "stonks can only go up". Similar views were expressed about houses/real estate in 2007. At 47, I'm probably substantially older than the average HN poster, but having lived through the 2001 dotcom implosion and the 2008 financial crisis has given me some perspective. I'm getting some really bad vibes about the sustainability of the the economy and asset markets…

> SWE, BSCS, 4 YOE, $800K TC What is this supposed to mean to mere mortals?

Software Engineer, Bachelor of Science in Computer Science, 4 Years of Experience, $800,000 Total Compensation.

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We still live in a generation where people think "real estate only goes up." I have so many people bragging about how they've nearly doubled the equity in their home around here in Nashville. 2007 didn't change anything, it was just a blip. People are still flipping houses and leveraging their existing homes to buy new ones. In the long run though, the saying hasn't really been proven false, asset prices tend to alwa…

Real estate is a bit different because the government actively restricts the supply of developable land and legally-buildable housing units on that land. The crash will come once average suburbanites stop protesting everything denser than a half-acre single-family home and city councils realize that mixed-zoning is far more sustainable.

I think geography also restricts the supply of developable land. Real estate is a finite commodity, while the human population doubles every 33 years. Even if you build up and with a higher density, there is a fixed limit to habitable space on earth. With a fixed supply and increasing demand, you will see increasing prices over time.

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New England can feed itself minus the cities. That's what they did for hundreds of years - New England was almost entirely farmland until the 20th century. A lot of folks still have small-scale subsistence farms or vegetable gardens in Vermont, New Hampshire, even central/western Massachusetts.

And in this collapse scenario the cities -- incidentally where a lot of wealth and power tend to be concentrated -- simply consent to starve to death? Or are you defending against them too?

The cities are absolutely going to invade the surrounding countryside. Mobs and gangs of hungry people banding together to take what they can from weaker neighbors has been a feature of nearly every instance of state failure.

As a city-dweller, your strategy for surviving this is to join one. As a wealthy suburb dweller, you better hope you have a private security advantage where you can kill the whole mob before it kills you. As a rural dweller, your strategy is to be far enough away, high enough up, and insignificant enough that it's not worth going after you. Gas will be in short supply after a collapse; it's not worth driving 100 miles to take food from a farm that you don't know exists. Most of the towns and small cities in the regions I mentioned are easily that far away from the nearest city.

It's pretty likely that the dominant political organization after a national collapse would be city-states. However, that doesn't mean that it's best for an individual to be within them. We might see 75% depopulation within cities, but people in rural areas can go on about their normal business, if they don't get conquered entirely by the local city. It's a choice between living in privilege in the aftermath of the collapse but having a good chance of not making it there, vs. a higher chance of survival but you'll be a vassal state to the local city.

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#428

We seem to have an entire generation of people who think "stonks can only go up". Similar views were expressed about houses/real estate in 2007. At 47, I'm probably substantially older than the average HN poster, but having lived through the 2001 dotcom implosion and the 2008 financial crisis has given me some perspective. I'm getting some really bad vibes about the sustainability of the the economy and asset markets…

When the crash comes though what do you want to own? Other than real estate and equities I can't think of anything else.

I guess Crypto..

https://twitter.com/SellFiat/status/1347958257642569730/phot...

Above graph is only about Bitcoin, people have made a shit ton more on Alt..

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#429

Perhaps people use bonds to overcome inflation without adding risk?

The article makes the point that bonds don't even achieve this. At best, they decay in value less fast than cash in an inflation scenario. But because of yield rate fluctuations, they're significantly less liquid than cash (if you don't want to lose extra on top of inflation losses). Which is an issue because if the inflation rate is suddenly 7%, you can take your cash and put it in something much safer like real estate or foreign currencies. Holding long-term bonds mitigates inflation, but also makes weds you to it.

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#430

We seem to have an entire generation of people who think "stonks can only go up". Similar views were expressed about houses/real estate in 2007. At 47, I'm probably substantially older than the average HN poster, but having lived through the 2001 dotcom implosion and the 2008 financial crisis has given me some perspective. I'm getting some really bad vibes about the sustainability of the the economy and asset markets…

With Quantitative Easing to numb the pain of a downturn stocks, real estate, and other assets can literally only go up. The Fed will directly purchase other asset classes to ensure that this remains true.

Now every stock market jitter leads to the Fed announcing an asset purchase program.

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