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Moore's Law for Everything

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31–40 of 554 posts

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#31
post #7

> This revolution will generate enough wealth for everyone to have what they need We had enough wealth for everyone to have what we need a long time ago. No matter how much we have humans always want more. AI won't change that.

yep... expectations scale with wealth. if we set a standard of living around that of ~100 years ago there would be "enough" for all. more likely outcome is that wealth disparity remains about the same (or gets worse) but everyone is a bit better off

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#32

> AI will lower the cost of goods and services, because labor is the driving cost at many levels of the supply chain. If robots can build a house on land you already own from natural resources mined and refined onsite, using solar power, the cost of building that house is close to the cost to rent the robots. And if those robots are made by other robots, the cost to rent them will be much less than it was when humans…

Rising costs of housing is, almost entirely, due to the fact that individuals are allowed to own more houses than they can use, while most people don't own any. It seems fairly obvious that if you control the housing market, a human need, you can set prices as high as they will possibly pay them.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#33
post #7

> This revolution will generate enough wealth for everyone to have what they need We had enough wealth for everyone to have what we need a long time ago. No matter how much we have humans always want more. AI won't change that.

I've spent what is likely way too much mental energy wondering about this, and I'm no closer to an answer. Is there any limit to lifestyle inflation? Is it possible to have growth that simply outpaces what a human could possibly consume? Intuitively it seems obvious that there should be something like that, but in the 1800s our growth today would seem like it should be enough.

If you haven't already, I'd recommend reading up on dematerialization:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dematerialization_(economics)

Modern, first-world society does seem to be reaching some sort of inflection point that might point to a "top" (of physical consumption at least) as we get more efficient and more stuff is moving digital. That's not to say there is really anything conclusive, but it is interesting to think about.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#34
post #7

> This revolution will generate enough wealth for everyone to have what they need We had enough wealth for everyone to have what we need a long time ago. No matter how much we have humans always want more. AI won't change that.

I've spent what is likely way too much mental energy wondering about this, and I'm no closer to an answer. Is there any limit to lifestyle inflation? Is it possible to have growth that simply outpaces what a human could possibly consume? Intuitively it seems obvious that there should be something like that, but in the 1800s our growth today would seem like it should be enough.

There's certainly people who eschew technology and live in a historical fashion. They might even be happier for it.

If there is a natural (not physical out of resources) limit where humans feel satiated i doubt we're anywhere near it. If we do hit it, wait a bunch of generations and they'll be more humans.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#35
post #25

> In the next five years, computer programs that can think will read legal documents and give medical advice. In the next decade, they will do assembly-line work Wait, medical advice is easier than assembly line work??

One factor is that assembly line work is already subject to a lot of automation.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#36
post #7

> This revolution will generate enough wealth for everyone to have what they need We had enough wealth for everyone to have what we need a long time ago. No matter how much we have humans always want more. AI won't change that.

The GDP per capita of the world is only about $12,000. That's technically "what we need," food, clothes, and shelter for a family of 4, but on a per person basis, it's below the federal poverty line in the US.

I don't think it's correct to say that we had enough wealth a long time ago. There are a lot of places in the world that are still desperately poor by any measure, not just by the standards of the wealthy. And although it's undoubtedly true that the wealthiest few deciles could give up many luxuries to provide more for the poor, it's much more arguable if there is enough for everyone to have enough without generating much more.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#37
Sold on the premise that when AI gets here it will change everything. What I don't have a good grasp on is how fast it will come. Recent feats of AI are very impressive, but it's hard for me to put it on a trendline that would line it up with massive changes coming with 10 years. Predictions around AI have made similar claims for the last 50 years. Why is it different this time?

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#38
For the vast majority of the world: food, shelter, health and comfort are driven by energy. Cheap/abundant energy will lift everyone. AI can help us in that process and then will have broader global benefits in 50 years. Not because it won't be ready, but because we won't be ready.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#39
post #7

> This revolution will generate enough wealth for everyone to have what they need We had enough wealth for everyone to have what we need a long time ago. No matter how much we have humans always want more. AI won't change that.

Came here to say the same thing.

People might still be more unhappy even though society at large delivers them things that could be unimaginable today. The creators and owners who can deliver that future will be richer than everyone else (rightfully so, imo) and that divide is what I think could make people more unhappy although they will be much better off than what we are today.

Re: Moore's Law for Everything

#40
post #7

> This revolution will generate enough wealth for everyone to have what they need We had enough wealth for everyone to have what we need a long time ago. No matter how much we have humans always want more. AI won't change that.

I doubt that. People who are ultra rich use money as a proxy for power, influence and status. In a post scarcity world money likely won't be a great way to attain status so the hope is that status will be obtained through other means like creative expression or charisma.
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