Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts • Hacker News Board

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#291

Post by yowlingcat » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 1:59 PM UTC

newacct583 wrote: post #147

silisili wrote: post #140

Perhaps unpopular opinion, but the US vaccination system is about the worst when it comes to preventing spread. Instead, it seems to be attempting to prevent death. I've always argued that preventing spread would as a byproduct prevent death, but I'm obviously not studied in the field. Put shortly, I would have vaccinated college kids and working age folks first. They are not likely to die from it, but are far more l…

That's an argument that can be made with numbers. The problem is we don't really have any. Your assertion that young adults are most likely to spread certainly seems plausible, but the truth is we just don't know. So we made a relatively conservative policy choice and chose to take the low hanging fruit of reducing severe cases at the potential cost of a longer pandemic. It seems reasonable to me, given the facts on…

Setting aside the topical question of whether it's young adults or younger/older demos that drive the spread, we do have data and modeling to suggest that superspreading events have driven most of the infections [1]. If that's the case, then I think there's a question to be asked about which cohort is more likely than others (if any) to drive super-spreading events.

That part I'm not so sure about.

[1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-superspreadin...

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#292

Post by fhunt » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 2:17 PM UTC

rimliu wrote: post #196

fhunt wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then take data science or deep learning which is a science as sophisticated, same there. We trust experts from other industries so much that we do not tolerate any other view without having a clue what is going on ourselves. The reason is simple, we have our views, they are political and we refer to "experts" to make our views scientific. Just my opinion and I bet that a huge number will disagree again with this comm…

Data science is a science in a name only.

Haha sure, read some papers about Bert and its successors. Come back and summarize what you have learned. But your comments shows so clearly that your opinion is set and politely you should check out data science and deep learning before you again write such shallow dismissals (which is against the guidelines btw).

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#293

Post by fhunt » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 2:19 PM UTC

MaxBarraclough wrote: post #260

rimliu wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Data science is a science in a name only.

To put that another way: most people who call themselves data scientists do not have a PhD and have zero research publications.

False claims. There're as many who do and do you know what it does not matter for this discussion because data science and deep learning is a science independently of what some people do or not. This was the point.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#294

Post by fhunt » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 2:22 PM UTC

justnotworthit wrote: post #119

fhunt wrote: post #77

OT: Imagine "experts" from our industry explain the mainstream our world: e.g. what's the right programming language, or database technology, why types matter, or not? Why do we trust "experts" from other industries?

Fear and hope. But do you mean: so-called experts? As in, not experts? Well, then that's just a question of finding the real ones, if they exist. Or do you dislike how they oversimplify when talking to the public? I do too. All nuance is erased. The trick, then, is find out what (true, non-politized) experts say to each other when the public isn't listening.

Problem is that most people don't listen and turned off their brain. Look at this thread. They rather believe some random experts and news outlets calling some random dudes with random degrees experts because they have themselves no clue, never lead always followed others. What do we expect?

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#295

Post by fhunt » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 2:24 PM UTC

barbazoo wrote: post #156

fhunt wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then take data science or deep learning which is a science as sophisticated, same there. We trust experts from other industries so much that we do not tolerate any other view without having a clue what is going on ourselves. The reason is simple, we have our views, they are political and we refer to "experts" to make our views scientific. Just my opinion and I bet that a huge number will disagree again with this comm…

I think parent is talking about professions where the scientific method is followed. It's not about how "sophisticated" something is.

Do you anything about data science or deep learning? If this is not about scientific methods then what else?

And even if not? Why not question existing methodology, people just follow some news outlets believing one and only thing.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#296

Post by DiogenesKynikos » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 2:35 PM UTC

makomk wrote: post #283

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China successfully followed the same strategy, so the strategy certainly can work for large, non-island countries. China had a few outbreaks (after Wuhan, obviously), but it responded to each one with quick restrictions on the affected location and mass testing of everyone in the region. That worked to contain these subsequent outbreaks. As a result, China has been essentially CoVID-19-free for about a year now.

It's hard to tell what on earth is going on in China because a lot of the information coming out of there seems... dubious. As you say, they've had a few outbreaks which they responded to with large-scale lockdowns and mass testing, but if you believe their reporting the mass testing generally didn't find any cases at all which (if accurate) would mean the whole thing was for nothing. This seems unlikely. There were…

It's not that difficult to know what's going on in China. There are many millions of Chinese people who call friends and family outside the country regularly. You can go read Chinese social media. There are Westerners in China who post to Western social media. There are even many people on HN who live in China.

> if you believe their reporting the mass testing generally didn't find any cases at all

That's not true. Their mass testing typically picked up further cases, which were isolated:

* In the June 2020 Beijing outbreak, mass testing uncovered over 300 cases.[1]

* In the October 2020 Qingdao outbreak, 9 additional cases (beyond the original three) were caught by mass testing.[2] That suggests that this outbreak was detected early.

* In the October 2020 outbreak in Kashgar, over a hundred additional cases were detected through mass testing.[3]

And of course, there was a more widespread outbreak in December (still concentrated in the Northeast), which peaked at over 100 new cases a day nationwide, and which was stopped with widespread lockdowns and mass testing.

> Also, a lot of the information about the source of the outbreaks and their successful methods for eradicating Covid is really obvious propaganda.

I assume you're talking about the cold chain. I don't see how that's "obvious propaganda." There's good evidence from contact-tracing that some of the subsequent outbreaks originated in people who work in the cold chain. It may seem strange from an American or European point of view, because the cold chain is way less of a problem than the literally millions of infected people walking around in Europe and the US. But in a country with essentially zero community spread and strict quarantine at the border, much less common pathways become a concern. It only takes one person touching a contaminated package and then touching their eyes to set off a new epidemic.

1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7445627/

2. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032361

3. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-54687533

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#297

Post by ceejayoz » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 2:39 PM UTC

mikem170 wrote: post #126

ceejayoz wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quite a few people 18-39 have friends and family in more vulnerable age groups they can spread it to, and the "one-in-tens-of-thousands" odds are with unprecedented global mitigation measures. "The odds are low with distancing and closed nightclubs" is a weird argument for packed nightclubs being safe.

Why did you put "one-in-tens-of-thousands" in quotes? I looked it up, in 2019 there were 89 million 20-39 years olds in the U.S. [0], and 7000 ages 18-39 died dies of covid19 [1]. Mathematically that works out to 1 in 12,714, and would be a bit higher were 18-19 years added to the denominator. I didn't mean to exaggerate this number. You mentioned family in vulnerable groups. Lets grant common sense, that someone who…

> Lets grant common sense, that someone who lives with their Grandparent's isn't going to go clubbing?

Our recent history does not make me feel comfortable granting that.

> Do you think it is unreasonable for a young person to go clubbing under any circumstances at the moment?

I think it's unreasonable for local governments to permit said club to be open in the first place.

> So why are per capita covid19 deaths higher in NY than in Florida? Florida has 1500 deaths per million, and NY has 2500.

NYC got hit at the very beginning, before we'd settled on how to effectively treat, and before most of the mitigation was in place. Peaked at over a thousand deaths a day.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/feb/26/instagram-...

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#298

Post by makomk » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 2:54 PM UTC

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #296

makomk wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard to tell what on earth is going on in China because a lot of the information coming out of there seems... dubious. As you say, they've had a few outbreaks which they responded to with large-scale lockdowns and mass testing, but if you believe their reporting the mass testing generally didn't find any cases at all which (if accurate) would mean the whole thing was for nothing. This seems unlikely. There were…

It's not that difficult to know what's going on in China. There are many millions of Chinese people who call friends and family outside the country regularly. You can go read Chinese social media. There are Westerners in China who post to Western social media. There are even many people on HN who live in China. > if you believe their reporting the mass testing generally didn't find any cases at all That's not true. T…

> There's good evidence from contact-tracing that some of the subsequent outbreaks originated in people who work in the cold chain.

Well, that's technically true. It just probably didn't come from the goods being handled like China claimed. In particular, formites and surface contamination of any kind don't seem to be a major source of transmission, and the Beijing outbreak they originally used this to explain seems to actually trace back to infected truckers travelling from somewhere in China with a previously-undetected outbreak that wasn't noticed before because locations outside Beijing didn't have the same level of testing. That is, they found it within their cold chain because that was where they were looking. This is also a lot more consistent with what we know about how Covid is transmitted.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#299

Post by loveistheanswer » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 3:20 PM UTC

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #279

ateesdalejr wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what you've been told by Chinese authorities; whom we have no reason to trust due to previous events.

It's what I've been told by numerous people who live in China. It's what I see on Chinese social media, and it's what Westerners who live in China are saying on Western social media. I'm sure there are many on HN who live in China - they can also tell you what things are like there. If there were a major ongoing epidemic in China, it would be impossible to hide. Hospitals would be under the same sort of pressure that…

>It's what I've been told by numerous people who live in China. It's what I see on Chinese social media, and it's what Westerners who live in China are saying on Western social media.

Yep, that's how censorship works.

I'm sure you won't see too many people talking about Tiananmen Square on Chinese social media either, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen.

Are we really going to pretend that the Chinese government hasn't been heavily censoring information which makes them look bad?

Early on in the pandemic, the Chinese covid death counts started to skyrocket, and activists within the country were using Github to make sure this information did not get 404'd. The same day these activists were dissapeared, the skyrocketing "official" chinese covid death count immediately went down to "0", where it has remained ever since. When using Google to browse the death counts by country, you can't even look at the death counts for China, the button is disabled.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/27/china-free-covid-19-acti...

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#300

Post by bagacrap » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 3:34 PM UTC

Angostura wrote: post #263

silisili wrote: post #140

Perhaps unpopular opinion, but the US vaccination system is about the worst when it comes to preventing spread. Instead, it seems to be attempting to prevent death. I've always argued that preventing spread would as a byproduct prevent death, but I'm obviously not studied in the field. Put shortly, I would have vaccinated college kids and working age folks first. They are not likely to die from it, but are far more l…

> Perhaps unpopular opinion, but the US vaccination system is about the worst when it comes to preventing spread. Instead, it seems to be attempting to prevent death. This is by far the most common approach around the world - the same approach is taken in the UK, for example. It's in place for three reasons: 1. We worked out that about 90% of deaths in the first wave would have been prevented if we had been able to v…

I don't understand the relevance of #1, as we have no time machine.

Regarding #2, I think no one seriously thinks the vaccine could fail to prevent spread (it surely is not 100% sterilizing, but everyone acts under the assumption it will vastly reduce spread). "There is no evidence for X" can be said for the vast majority of values of X, since most X are impossible and/or too time consuming to study. This includes, for example, X = "the best way to use the vaccine is to give a first round of second doses before a second round of first doses". But we often have to make decisions in the face of imperfect data.

#3 is ridiculous because the logic appears to be, "the best rollout plan is the one that's easiest to enforce". By this logic, we should line up by height, like we did in elementary school when heading to the toilet.