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Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

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Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#261

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

makomk wrote: post #236
tshaddox wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hence a global approach similar to New Zealand’s. The globe has similar advantages to New Zealand when it comes to controlling pandemics.

Not really. There are two basically insurmountable problems with taking New Zealand's success and expanding it to the entire globe. Firstly, the effectiveness of this is limited by wherever it works the least well. Secondly, even if everywhere could implement the same measures as New Zealand as well as they did, over that large a scale there would be places which had much worse success just through random chance alon…

China is the most populous country on Earth, and geographically, one of the largest. It has followed a similar strategy as New Zealand and Australia. That strategy has worked to keep the country essentially CoVID-19-free over the past year.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#262

Post by scott_w »

trulyme wrote: post #190
scott_w wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can imagine the fatigue of what I’m currently going through of constantly locking down for 4 months at a time! Compared to that, having to lock down every couple of months for a week or two doesn’t seem anywhere near as bad. Oh, and we wouldn’t have 130,000 dead in the UK and 500,000+ dead in the USA!

We wouldn't? That seemes like a bold statement. To put your numbers in perspective, in a population of 330mio with life expectancy 70-75y (USA numbers), every year around 4mio people die for some reason or another. Not saying covid is not a problem, but these numbers don't really support the claim.

The numbers absolutely do support my claim.

A quick check shows the U.K. death toll increased by 15% in 2020 (600,000 in 2019, 690,000 in 2020). That was WITH the lockdowns in place.

40,000 people died of Covid in January 2021 alone as a result of the government's ineffective response leading up to Christmas.

Compare that to New Zealand’s 26 total Covid deaths, or South Korea’s 1,669 total Covid deaths.

I think my numbers support my claims perfectly well.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#263

Post by Angostura »

silisili wrote: post #140

Perhaps unpopular opinion, but the US vaccination system is about the worst when it comes to preventing spread. Instead, it seems to be attempting to prevent death. I've always argued that preventing spread would as a byproduct prevent death, but I'm obviously not studied in the field. Put shortly, I would have vaccinated college kids and working age folks first. They are not likely to die from it, but are far more l…

> Perhaps unpopular opinion, but the US vaccination system is about the worst when it comes to preventing spread. Instead, it seems to be attempting to prevent death.

This is by far the most common approach around the world - the same approach is taken in the UK, for example. It's in place for three reasons:

1. We worked out that about 90% of deaths in the first wave would have been prevented if we had been able to vaccinate the most vulnerable groups. This is A Good Thing, both in ite own terms, but also in terms of preventing healthcare systems being overwhelmed.

2. There was no evidence at the beginning that the vaccine prevented transmissibility - only that it prevented serious illness. So the preventing deaths strategy made sense.

3. It's simple to organise and roll-out at speed - and speed is of the essence. Doctors have people's ages and medical vulnerability on record, so you can very quickly draw up lists of who is eligible for vaccination in each cohort. Compare this with trying to arrange vaccination by (say) profession.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#264

Post by Cogito »

ern wrote: post #259
makomk wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New Zealand and Australia have had cases outside of quarantine despite every single traveller who enters those island nations being kept in hotel quarantine, tested multiple times, and being released only after the quarantine period ends. Some of those cases are directly traceable to quarantined travellers, some aren't. In any case, even those measures which aren't practical except in an island nation aren't effectiv…

Some of those cases are directly traceable to quarantined travellers, some aren't One of those countries has been able to trace all cases in the last few months and makes extensive use of genomic sequencing. The leaks have all come out of hotel quarantine breaches. I believe that some Australian states that do not receive overseas travelers have not had a single case in months. It may (or may not) not be feasible for…

The state which has the most international arrivals (NSW) just had its first locally transmitted (ie not in hotel quarantine) case in 55 days.

The positive case is a security guard that works at quarantine hotels. Immediate and immense efforts have been put into place to contact trace as many contacts as possible, and to sequence the genome to understand the direct link between existing cases.

We expect these occaisonal breaches in quarantine, and as long as they remain occaisonal they are relatively cheap and easy to contain. Meanwhile restrictions continue to ease and life is almost as normal as you could want - and will certainly be even better once the vaccination program is in full swing.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#265

Post by Angostura »

odiroot wrote: post #243
silisili wrote: post #140

Perhaps unpopular opinion, but the US vaccination system is about the worst when it comes to preventing spread. Instead, it seems to be attempting to prevent death. I've always argued that preventing spread would as a byproduct prevent death, but I'm obviously not studied in the field. Put shortly, I would have vaccinated college kids and working age folks first. They are not likely to die from it, but are far more l…

> Put shortly, I would have vaccinated college kids and working age folks first. They are not likely to die from it, but are far more likely to spread it than elderly and severely diseased folks. Many people agree with you. Vaccinating the most mobile people and isolating the most "immobile" (retirees, children, sick) is very logical. My guess is politicians know it but they would never make such a decision. It'd be…

> Vaccinating the most mobile people and isolating the most "immobile" (retirees, children, sick) is very logical.

Only if you know that the vaccine prevents or even reduces transmissibility - which we didn't until well after the vaccine roll-out

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#266

Post by MaxBarraclough »

xeromal wrote: post #102
XorNot wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Basically compare how software is developed by all of us to how software was written for the space shuttle. There is just absolutely no comparison in process or methodology. Space shuttle programming is what true software engineering looks like.

I've always thought that true engineering is anything that involves human lives. Bridges, pipes, roads, pace makers, space ships, rockets. Websites don't kill people, it ain't engineering.

That doesn't sound right. Most applications of electronic engineering are not safety-critical, unless we count requirements such as avoiding improper use of toxic chemicals, but setting the bar that low would mean just about any physical undertaking counts as safety-critical.

Projects like the Linux kernel, or the HotSpot and LLVM compiler systems, presumably count as engineering. Building a new GPU presumably counts as engineering. These systems aren't intended for safety-critical use, though.

Another example: it still counts as aeronautical engineering even if you're building an unmanned drone that only ever flies in a lab.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#267

Post by tim333 »

de6u99er wrote: post #112

A globally coordinated approach, similar to NZ's approach could have ended the oandemic already a year ago. Thanks to COVID-19 fatigue amongst the population, such an effort very close to impossible.

I remember the Chinese guy Zhong Nanshan saying if the world took his/Chinese advice, basically Wuhan like policies, that the whole thing could be gone by June 2020. But I guess with Trumps and Bolsonaros running countries that wasn't on the cards.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#268

Post by ateesdalejr »

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #261
makomk wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. There are two basically insurmountable problems with taking New Zealand's success and expanding it to the entire globe. Firstly, the effectiveness of this is limited by wherever it works the least well. Secondly, even if everywhere could implement the same measures as New Zealand as well as they did, over that large a scale there would be places which had much worse success just through random chance alon…

China is the most populous country on Earth, and geographically, one of the largest. It has followed a similar strategy as New Zealand and Australia. That strategy has worked to keep the country essentially CoVID-19-free over the past year.

That's what you've been told by Chinese authorities; whom we have no reason to trust due to previous events.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#269

Post by statstutor »

silisili wrote: post #140

Perhaps unpopular opinion, but the US vaccination system is about the worst when it comes to preventing spread. Instead, it seems to be attempting to prevent death. I've always argued that preventing spread would as a byproduct prevent death, but I'm obviously not studied in the field. Put shortly, I would have vaccinated college kids and working age folks first. They are not likely to die from it, but are far more l…

> Perhaps unpopular opinion

If I was responsible for policy, I would ask (have asked) a scientist to model this rather than stating it as opinion.

I suspect that any model would just show you to be extremely wrong, for a virus which is already circulating freely.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#270

Post by cfn »

ern wrote: post #234
cfn wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in the Azores on an island with less than 15k people which was mostly closed last year. There are only two ways to enter the island: the port and the airport there isn't a lot of movement and everyone coming in is tested twice. On top of that people here are terrified of the virus and take it very seriously (masks, distancing, etc) and can even be hostile to newcomers. Still, cases keep popping up even without…

I believe that, like New Zealand, we are just postponing the inevitable New Zealand (and Australia) don't have cases, because every single traveler who enters those island nations is kept in hotel quarantine, and tested multiple times before being released only after the quarantine period ends. It isn't the same as testing people when they come in and letting them straight into the community if they test negative. Th…

We also had quarantine during last year and on top we grounded all the planes except for emergency and supplies.
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