Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts • Hacker News Board

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#241

Post by makomk » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 10:23 AM UTC

scott_w wrote: post #169

refurb wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m skeptical. Even countries like Singapore have constantly had 1 or 2 locally transmitted cases per month they can’t trace. Now multiply that across 170 countries some too poor to do what Singapore did. If every country had locked down like NZ, we would have just had a series of lockdowns and flare ups and more lockdowns. It certainly would have kept the case numbers much lower but can you imagine the fatigue after…

I can imagine the fatigue of what I’m currently going through of constantly locking down for 4 months at a time! Compared to that, having to lock down every couple of months for a week or two doesn’t seem anywhere near as bad. Oh, and we wouldn’t have 130,000 dead in the UK and 500,000+ dead in the USA!

A couple of weeks is basically the bare minimum. New Zealand seem to have gotten a little lucky with their latest outbreak; one or two people not noticing their symptoms, or going for a walk with someone different, or interacting for a little longer at a restaurant and they could easily have ended up having to lock down for months like Guernsey or the Isle of Man. (Arguably, it's still a little too soon to be sure they've gotten away with it.)

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#242

Post by makomk » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 10:25 AM UTC

ern wrote: post #234

cfn wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in the Azores on an island with less than 15k people which was mostly closed last year. There are only two ways to enter the island: the port and the airport there isn't a lot of movement and everyone coming in is tested twice. On top of that people here are terrified of the virus and take it very seriously (masks, distancing, etc) and can even be hostile to newcomers. Still, cases keep popping up even without…

I believe that, like New Zealand, we are just postponing the inevitable New Zealand (and Australia) don't have cases, because every single traveler who enters those island nations is kept in hotel quarantine, and tested multiple times before being released only after the quarantine period ends. It isn't the same as testing people when they come in and letting them straight into the community if they test negative. Th…

New Zealand and Australia have had cases outside of quarantine despite every single traveller who enters those island nations being kept in hotel quarantine, tested multiple times, and being released only after the quarantine period ends. Some of those cases are directly traceable to quarantined travellers, some aren't. In any case, even those measures which aren't practical except in an island nation aren't effective enough to prevent outbreaks when implemented on a larger scale; the bigger the country the more opportunities for one of those cases to turn into something that's not easily controlled.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#243

Post by odiroot » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 10:26 AM UTC

silisili wrote: post #140

Perhaps unpopular opinion, but the US vaccination system is about the worst when it comes to preventing spread. Instead, it seems to be attempting to prevent death. I've always argued that preventing spread would as a byproduct prevent death, but I'm obviously not studied in the field. Put shortly, I would have vaccinated college kids and working age folks first. They are not likely to die from it, but are far more l…

> Put shortly, I would have vaccinated college kids and working age folks first. They are not likely to die from it, but are far more likely to spread it than elderly and severely diseased folks.

Many people agree with you. Vaccinating the most mobile people and isolating the most "immobile" (retirees, children, sick) is very logical.

My guess is politicians know it but they would never make such a decision. It'd be a political suicide.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#244

Post by odiroot » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 10:28 AM UTC

apendleton wrote: post #151

fakedang wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In that case, the vaccination system worldwide is the worst. No country I know of has prioritized those groups over elderlies.

China has been doing essentially this (prioritizing young people over the elderly): https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/voa-news-china/chi... . You're right that it's definitely not the prevailing strategy though. (Also, sorry for the vaguely propagandist source -- I originally heard about this on a podcast and am having trouble determining which, and this doesn't seem to be getting much coverage in English-lan…

> China has been doing essentially this (prioritizing young people over the elderly)

Because CCP is not worried about losing the next election.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#245

Post by nickthemagicman » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 10:30 AM UTC

TheDong wrote: post #131

luxuryballs wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What we learned should be not to decimate small businesses like tossing leaves to the wind “don’t worry we’ll build back better!” and let people decide their own risk taking. I think that it’s almost more terrifying than the thing itself that more people aren’t mostly incredibly disturbed by the insane violations of privacy and speech. Literally you should not, in a free society, be able take such injurious actions b…

There's a massive difference between contagious diseases with exponential growth potential and the other freedoms you talk about. For a closer analogy than "what people are wearing or eating", what about "what people drive and how fast in public areas". The government introduced speed limits, regulations on vehicles, and driver licenses, all of which significantly limit who can drive what, and how fast. All of this i…

It's proven that speed limits save lives by 100% of scientists.

There's absolutely no proof that quarantine or any of these Covid restrictions was effective.

There's a study that masks might prevent spread by around 2%. That doesn't seem enough to enforce massive restrictions to me. Sweden and had less deaths per capita then most of Europe and they had minimal restrictions.

Also the scale of the restrictions is different than speed limits. Quarantine and business shutdowns are massive changes to society and repressive restrictions on financial survival and affect just about every aspect of our lives versus just some targeted change like a speed limit.

What if a vaccine had never been developed?

Would you be okay enforcing these restrictions forever?

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#246

Post by nickthemagicman » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 10:37 AM UTC

hooande wrote: post #160

luxuryballs wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What we learned should be not to decimate small businesses like tossing leaves to the wind “don’t worry we’ll build back better!” and let people decide their own risk taking. I think that it’s almost more terrifying than the thing itself that more people aren’t mostly incredibly disturbed by the insane violations of privacy and speech. Literally you should not, in a free society, be able take such injurious actions b…

The problem isn't government tyranny. If half of the population decides it isn't safe to eat out at restaurants, then it won't make sense for restaurants to be open. Businesses and events are built on an assumption of a certain number of customers. If X% of the population decides to opt out of social life then it doesn't make sense for them to be open in the same way as before, government mandate or not. You can't go…

Most people can think for themselves though.

We're changing society for the people who can't think for themselves.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#247

Post by saiya-jin » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 10:37 AM UTC

vanviegen wrote: post #198

jb775 wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To bad that simply isn't realistic when accounting for hundreds of millions of people. Not to mention the whole "freedom" thing. Quit virtue signaling using conjecture and bogus stats (i.e. my way would have saved everyone!).

Virtue signaling? That seems like a stretch. GP is only saying how they think covid-19 should have been handled.

Yeah but that's unrealistic proposal that looks nice on paper, but completely ignores real human nature and how complex and diverse real world is.

Who has the authority for global shutdowns? Nobody. Many nations wouldn't agree on that and political discussions would be endless, everybody has their own agenda regardless of virus. Can you imagine some Europeans telling USA 'OK now whole of your nation will stay at home for 2 weeks'. Not going to fly on any US level. Or Americans to Chinese.

Globally it haven't been handled OK by any means, but these naive suggestions don't help getting a workable solution.

'If only all people behaved rationally' can be wished in any discussion, sure, but it doesn't get us anywhere closer to solutions.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#248

Post by te_chris » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 10:37 AM UTC

nxpnsv wrote: post #221

digianarchist wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So is Britain.

There is a tunnel, it’s a transportation hub, lots more people, and boris..

Was a transportation hub. Brexit should sort that out.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#249

Post by nickthemagicman » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 10:39 AM UTC

viraptor wrote: post #143

luxuryballs wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What we learned should be not to decimate small businesses like tossing leaves to the wind “don’t worry we’ll build back better!” and let people decide their own risk taking. I think that it’s almost more terrifying than the thing itself that more people aren’t mostly incredibly disturbed by the insane violations of privacy and speech. Literally you should not, in a free society, be able take such injurious actions b…

> No amount of “but people could die” can justify this, that’s an irrelevant point, because there never a time when it was proper to remove autonomy for such a reason! Would you be interested in allowing unregulated tobacco adverts and smoking in any public spaces again as well?

Shutting down all of society with a very little proof ..versus a small targeted change like a speed limit or tobacco restriction that both have pretty much scientific consensus and decades of proof.

Those are not good comparisons.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#250

Post by baxtr » Sun, Mar 14, 2021, 10:45 AM UTC

walterbell wrote: post #43

> the immune system has an array of other defenses... including antibodies that attack other parts of the virus, and, importantly, T-cells that attack the infected cells the virus hijacks in order to replicate. “What we’re seeing is that these variants don’t seem to affect T-cell immunity all that much and they [the T-cells] seem to be as effective in recognizing these variants as they do the original virus” People w…

I have done my PhD on T cell activation. The persistent focus of the media and even some of the science community on Antibody induced immunity was completely beyond me. T cells were largely simply ignored even though they play such a crucial role in the body’s immune response.

Antibodies seem to be a concept much easier to grasp. Maybe we should call T cells "Police Cells or "Anti-Cells" instead. You know, some marketing might help...