What used cars tell us about the risk of too much inflation hitting the economy
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Re: What used cars tell us about the risk of too much inflation hitting the economy
#2My grocery bill is up 40% from pre-pandemic and I shop at the cheap grocery store. I buy basically the same stuff as I have for the past 10 years. Yet the government claims inflation is minimal. Combined with the value of my property rising and my 401k, I refuse to believe inflation is what the government claims. Huge scam going on here. The government has no incentive to say CPI is rising because that would require them to raise social security payments, raise interest rates, and slow down on money printing. So my conclusion is they are lying, because I see inflation staring me in the face.
Re: What used cars tell us about the risk of too much inflation hitting the economy
#3My grocery bill is up 40% from pre-pandemic and I shop at the cheap grocery store. I buy basically the same stuff as I have for the past 10 years. Yet the government claims inflation is minimal. Combined with the value of my property rising and my 401k, I refuse to believe inflation is what the government claims. Huge scam going on here. The government has no incentive to say CPI is rising because that would require…
Its amazing the game we are going through just to avoid fixing the pension system (ie. reducing pension payments and increasing retirement ages to sustainable levels).
Re: What used cars tell us about the risk of too much inflation hitting the economy
#4My grocery bill is up 40% from pre-pandemic and I shop at the cheap grocery store. I buy basically the same stuff as I have for the past 10 years. Yet the government claims inflation is minimal. Combined with the value of my property rising and my 401k, I refuse to believe inflation is what the government claims. Huge scam going on here. The government has no incentive to say CPI is rising because that would require…
> The government has no incentive to say CPI is rising
Ok, maybe the government has certain incentives, but how exactly do you propose the CPI is manipulated? The guys doing the actual calculation receive a government salary that is fixed, they don't get any bonus linked to the outcome of the measurement. Their bosses don't get a bonus based on how low the CPI comes out either. In fact nobody in the government gives a flying fudge if the deficit goes up or down because the CPI reads this or that. They will receive their salary regardless. Conversely, if one day it turns out they did manipulate the CPI, they may lose their jobs, and even may be dragged in courts for years. All for what? For a government salary? Or are you saying someone is actually bribing them? For someone to bribe them, that someone needs to make a profit. How exactly does that happen?
Re: What used cars tell us about the risk of too much inflation hitting the economy
#5My grocery bill is up 40% from pre-pandemic and I shop at the cheap grocery store. I buy basically the same stuff as I have for the past 10 years. Yet the government claims inflation is minimal. Combined with the value of my property rising and my 401k, I refuse to believe inflation is what the government claims. Huge scam going on here. The government has no incentive to say CPI is rising because that would require…
> The government has no incentive to say CPI is rising Ok, maybe the government has certain incentives, but how exactly do you propose the CPI is manipulated? The guys doing the actual calculation receive a government salary that is fixed, they don't get any bonus linked to the outcome of the measurement. Their bosses don't get a bonus based on how low the CPI comes out either. In fact nobody in the government gives…
The definition of the index, what does or not get counted in the baskets of goods, various “adjustments” etc. allow for plenty of manipulation of the headline numbers irrespective of whether or not the calculations themselves are being done honestly.
Re: What used cars tell us about the risk of too much inflation hitting the economy
#6It’s a similar story in Australia, leaving me constantly wondering what exactly CPI or inflation is supposed to measure. Cost of housing, both rented and especially to buy, are up astronomically, food costs about the same but packages are getting smaller, transport costs are increasing, yet the reporting from our central banks is saying all is well and inflation is low.
Even if the purpose of their measurement is not necessarily the lived daily experience of consumers, those numbers are used to drive policy that is, so I think it might be time to define a new metric that more closely reflects the actual cost of living.
Re: What used cars tell us about the risk of too much inflation hitting the economy
#7My grocery bill is up 40% from pre-pandemic and I shop at the cheap grocery store. I buy basically the same stuff as I have for the past 10 years. Yet the government claims inflation is minimal. Combined with the value of my property rising and my 401k, I refuse to believe inflation is what the government claims. Huge scam going on here. The government has no incentive to say CPI is rising because that would require…
This is the same realization I had recently.
The value of my house is likely up 15% from last year. My investments grew 20%, my income went up, getting food from any restaurant seems to cost at least $40 for two people, hard to find a bar of chocolate under $4, cup of coffee likewise. There is very little telling me my dollar today is only 1.5%-2% less valuable than last year.
Re: What used cars tell us about the risk of too much inflation hitting the economy
#8My grocery bill is up 40% from pre-pandemic and I shop at the cheap grocery store. I buy basically the same stuff as I have for the past 10 years. Yet the government claims inflation is minimal. Combined with the value of my property rising and my 401k, I refuse to believe inflation is what the government claims. Huge scam going on here. The government has no incentive to say CPI is rising because that would require…
> The government has no incentive to say CPI is rising Ok, maybe the government has certain incentives, but how exactly do you propose the CPI is manipulated? The guys doing the actual calculation receive a government salary that is fixed, they don't get any bonus linked to the outcome of the measurement. Their bosses don't get a bonus based on how low the CPI comes out either. In fact nobody in the government gives…
>> how exactly do you propose the CPI is manipulated
One way is OER, aka Owners Equivalent Rent. Great article https://wolfstreet.com/2021/03/11/house-price-inflation-in-c... (look at that graph half way down).
Another way is "hedonic adjustments". https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/603/inflation/hedonics-an...
Re: What used cars tell us about the risk of too much inflation hitting the economy
#9It’s a similar story in Australia, leaving me constantly wondering what exactly CPI or inflation is supposed to measure. Cost of housing, both rented and especially to buy, are up astronomically, food costs about the same but packages are getting smaller, transport costs are increasing, yet the reporting from our central banks is saying all is well and inflation is low. Even if the purpose of their measurement is not…
>> I think it might be time to define a new metric that more closely reflects the actual cost of living.
We had different inflation stats back in the day. The US government has been slowly changing them. This guy uses the old official methodology to calculate inflation today. He gets way higher inflation using the old methodology and plugging in todays numbers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadowstats.com
There is a lot of controversy here, but I think inflation is definitely higher than reported.
Re: What used cars tell us about the risk of too much inflation hitting the economy
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The government has no incentive to say CPI is rising Ok, maybe the government has certain incentives, but how exactly do you propose the CPI is manipulated? The guys doing the actual calculation receive a government salary that is fixed, they don't get any bonus linked to the outcome of the measurement. Their bosses don't get a bonus based on how low the CPI comes out either. In fact nobody in the government gives…
>> how exactly do you propose the CPI is manipulated One way is OER, aka Owners Equivalent Rent. Great article https://wolfstreet.com/2021/03/11/house-price-inflation-in-c... (look at that graph half way down). Another way is "hedonic adjustments". https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/603/inflation/hedonics-an...
How Owners Equivalent Rent is calculated: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-an...