Database startups suffer from an extreme case of an important truism in startups generally: the product you think you are selling is not the product the customer thinks they are buying. No one buys a database per se , they are just a means to some other end. People that love database technology — that would be me — tend to start database companies. It is very difficult to sell a database. It is much, much easier to s…
On the other hand, any kind of technology in infrastructure is a prime candidate for open source, the incentives are just very much aligned there. Infrastructure tech makes for a great case that helps everyone while giving nobody a competitive advantage, that's why companies love doing or sponsoring it. On the other hand, open source tech in infrastructure helps get rid of vendor lock-in as in the worst case, you cou…
A question that lacks a satisfactory answer in open source data infrastructure is this: who is going to pay for the initial architecture to be state-of-the-art? Architecture is forever, if you start with a naive design it will put the platform at a long-term disadvantage. Most open source infrastructure projects are started by well-meaning people that have no idea what a state-of-the-art design even looks like. At the periphery you might be able to burn a giant pile of VC money to make it happen but that is not sustainable without a clear path to profitable exit. The set of people with the critical expertise and the set of people building open source data infrastructure are nearly disjoint.
Today, the money is in state-of-the-art bespoke data infrastructure. If the tradeoff is "open source" and "10-100x better on infrastructure KPIs", companies happily pay millions for the latter. People that know how to design this infrastructure are extremely well paid, 7-figures is common and demand is high. Yes, they could take a year off work and create an open source infrastructure project but this doesn't seem to happen and it is easy to understand why, as there are few incentives and many disincentives. This is roughly my area of business, I see the dynamics from the inside and the trend is not favoring open source.
If all of the cutting edge infrastructure development work is happening in closed source, whether cloud or state-of-the-art bespoke, it doesn't bode well for the long-term relevance of open source.