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Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

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Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#151

Oh, the ego, what a marvelous thing! Believing that what we currently know is applicable to humans in the future, that our current limits are immutable. We know all the laws of physics, right? We know if the universe is finite or infinite(because we had traveled there and seen the limits), we know what creates gravity and exactly how electromagnetic attraction really works... the same way the people Socrates asked 25…

We actually know what gravity really is (basically, curving of space due to mass), and we know why the speed of light is the speed limit of the universe (it's necessarily true because space is continuous and you can't teleport). These come from general relativity, which is an extremely well test theory. Whatever we find out about gravity and light in the future must at least reduce to general relativity.

What I find curious is that it's the people who don't know what we know who think we'll overturn what we know. Perhaps that's because it's easier to say "Oh, someone will overturn that" when you don't actually know what "that" is.

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#152
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

? I thought it was the mass that made a black hole - not the density ?

There is a minimum amount of mass necessary for an object to be able to collapse upon itself and form a black hole, such as a large star does when the outward pressure due to the internal fusion reaction stalls. However, any amount of mass can (in classical theory) be compressed far enough to obtain a Schwarzschild radius, from which light cannot escape. This has only to do with the density, not the total mass: a ver…

So you could say that all point masses (e.g. electrons) are black holes?

What happens if you take a large black hole, and you throw a lot of electrons into it? Does it get an electric field measurable from the outside? If not, how come an electron does have this field?

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#153
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sufficiently advanced AI is going to have to be able to do pretty much the same things humans can do for the thing to work, so it'd be a game-changer in itself, not something that gets waved off as an aside. Re. the preservation thing, the question is exactly what counts as humanity. If you have limited resources and can only pick one, would you choose a planet colonized by biological humans who have lost all of…

Desperate times may require desperate measures. Robotic parents won't have to be close to human parents, just good enough to teach language and reading. The result may be psychologically unstable or mentally deficient children, but that may be corrected in a few generations.

Agree its posible. Robots don't need to teach kids alot. The ship could have a HD with the hole human knowlage on it. Like wikipedia on speed. Everything with videos (or directly to the brain?) from basic english to quantum phisiks. The robots have to feed them and stuff like that. Sperm and eggs are small enough that the can send them in big numbers.

Desing whan ship that can do that for 20 people and then just keep sending them.

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#154
post #147
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this is exactly the type of short-sighted thinking that dooms us. The vast majority of scientists have come to a consensus yet you don't like it so label them bureaucrats with some sinister motive of destroying the economy behind it.

Just because we know there is a problem doesn't really mean anything. That's just the beginning. Ask yourself these questions: How much does/will the problem cost us? IS there a solution? How much will the solution cost? Then you do cost benefit analysis and decide the best course of action. THEN you try to talk everybody else into it. I'm happy to concede global warming is happening and will only get worse. Hell, I…

Climate shift implies a necessary change to infrastructure: cities that once did not have to deal with flash floods will, for example. Municipal trees will die. Areas that grow colder will have non-insulated water pipes burst. There is no need to form greater bureaucratic nightmares to adapt for such problems, only a general willingness to remake our urban environments before it becomes dreadfully expensive. Note the work Chicago is doing, as a function of it's normal maintenance; anticipating a hotter and wetter climate alleys and sidewalks become water permeable, tree species are changed.

> Then you do cost benefit analysis and decide the best course of action. THEN you try to talk everybody else into it.

This is overly simplistic. Who is the decision maker? Democracies function as distributed consensus makers--very little _can_ or _should_ be dictated by some benevolent cabal. Moreover, for the rather complex problem of adapting _human civilization itself_ it is hard, if not impossible, to perform a cost benefit analysis. Where do you even get the possible solutions from if:

  * no one but a few know about the problem and
  * domain experts you consult with might have implicit
    biases against the problem without significant
    preparation and
  * the hypothetical cabal is composes of like minded
    (hence like-blinded) individuals?
> Hell, I was one of the first people I know to understand and accept that. I just haven't seen the follow up yet. It's always "Yep, got yourself a problem there",

It's entirely possible we've gone past the point of short-term return. Still, the follow up, as you put it, has been to reduce or eliminate the primary sources of the problem:

  * decrease the reliance of Heavy and Light industries on coal/oil
  * decrease and reverse global deforestation
  * decrease and reverse water vapor production from urban areas
Each one of these points has large cultural and economic implications. It is, however, very difficult to discuss them when so many deny the premise, or have a vested interest in convincing others of the invalidity of the premise. It is entirely wrong to assert that the follow up, as you put it, has been absent from the discussion; mostly it's drowned out. Communicating complex ideas is difficult in a culture with strong debate traditions; God have mercy on us for our Shouting Heads.

> but no solution offered other than "buy a Prius".

I think that's willfully cynical of you, or uninformed. Even ignoring the obvious vested interest car manufactures have in misinforming us that a _different_ kind of car is a viable solution, the perverse effects a Car Culture has on an Urban environment--heavily paved, strongly lateral development--is likely unsustainable in the long-term.

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#155
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because we know there is a problem doesn't really mean anything. That's just the beginning. Ask yourself these questions: How much does/will the problem cost us? IS there a solution? How much will the solution cost? Then you do cost benefit analysis and decide the best course of action. THEN you try to talk everybody else into it. I'm happy to concede global warming is happening and will only get worse. Hell, I…

Climate shift implies a necessary change to infrastructure: cities that once did not have to deal with flash floods will, for example. Municipal trees will die. Areas that grow colder will have non-insulated water pipes burst. There is no need to form greater bureaucratic nightmares to adapt for such problems, only a general willingness to remake our urban environments before it becomes dreadfully expensive. Note the…

But how much will forcing those infrastructure and cultural and societal changes cost NOW, versus letting them happen naturally and gradually the same way we switched from wood to coal to petroleum and from muscle to steam to electricity?

Extremely simple illustration: Do you think people in Florida will be living 10 feet under water in 100 years? No, they will move before then. But they don't have to move now, so why force them?

Similarly, do you think we'll all be driving gas-guzzling SUVs in 100 years? Hell no. Oil just won't last that long, and our car culture will have died or switched to electric (or nuclear, or secret ooze) long before then anyway.

So why force the issue? I guess I'm just not seeing the urgency here. And whatever urgency there is, doesn't seem to be fixable in the short term. Ocean levels will rise. They already have. So let's focus on mitigation rather than the already failed task of prevention.

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#156
post #21
post #6

That's a good, grounded assessment of the scale of the problem. I too believe that the human colonization of space, even near-space (ie within the orbit of the Moon) is a long way off. The energy costs are simply too high and resources too cheap on the Earth to make it viable (in spite of typical SF fodder of asteroid mining). This is a problem because with 6.5 billion people we're using up resources. Fast. Anyway, I…

I think the main challenge is whether there will actually be any desire to colonize in the first place. By the time we acquire the means to leave the solar system society will have transformed so completely that it's impossible to predict what our goals will be. Resources and population are not likely to be problems at all though.

Agreed. Once a civilization has acquired enough resources that interstellar travel is feasible, the reasons for doing so become less compelling.

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#157
post #38

As impossible as the physics seems I think the social problems are bigger. Scientists are currently unable to convince people to act against the potential catastrophe of global warming. Humans are too stupid to organize a planet wide self preservation effort that requires any significant amount of resources. I think the more likely scenario for humanity over the next 10 thousand years is several cycles of civilizatio…

Humans are too smart to let a bunch of bureaucrats with their pseudo-scientific rationalizations destroy the economy in the pursuit of more power for the bureaucracies.

If the scientists are all in a giant evil conspiracy we're doomed anyway, my point still stands, humans are too stupid to save ourselves if needed.

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#158
post #6

That's a good, grounded assessment of the scale of the problem. I too believe that the human colonization of space, even near-space (ie within the orbit of the Moon) is a long way off. The energy costs are simply too high and resources too cheap on the Earth to make it viable (in spite of typical SF fodder of asteroid mining). This is a problem because with 6.5 billion people we're using up resources. Fast. Anyway, I…

Actually you just need a few females, and a large store of sperm to provide genetic diversity in further generations. If you used inseminated eggs (so the mother has no genetic relation) you can bring the human race to another planet with only a few people. When you get to the habitable planet, you let the population grow.

Also since a large genetic pool comes with the colonists, it limits genetic drift.

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#159
post #153
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Desperate times may require desperate measures. Robotic parents won't have to be close to human parents, just good enough to teach language and reading. The result may be psychologically unstable or mentally deficient children, but that may be corrected in a few generations.

Agree its posible. Robots don't need to teach kids alot. The ship could have a HD with the hole human knowlage on it. Like wikipedia on speed. Everything with videos (or directly to the brain?) from basic english to quantum phisiks. The robots have to feed them and stuff like that. Sperm and eggs are small enough that the can send them in big numbers. Desing whan ship that can do that for 20 people and then just keep…

Those would be some f-ed up children.

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#160

Oh, the ego, what a marvelous thing! Believing that what we currently know is applicable to humans in the future, that our current limits are immutable. We know all the laws of physics, right? We know if the universe is finite or infinite(because we had traveled there and seen the limits), we know what creates gravity and exactly how electromagnetic attraction really works... the same way the people Socrates asked 25…

Socrates was wrong.

We are wrong now, as well.

But to say that we are as wrong as Socrates is ridiculous. We are much, much, much closer to the truth now than we have ever been.

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