Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks • Hacker News Board

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#41

Post by Pyramus » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 4:37 PM UTC

trevelyan wrote: post #32

Pyramus wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Considerable suspicion" is over-selling it in my opinion. The arguments I've heard go along the lines of 'the virus is surprisingly well adapted to humans'. This reasoning, however, is text-book survivor bias: Given we observe a pandemic, the probability for the virus to be well adapted is very high. What we do know is: * There is a highest safety level virus lab in Wuhan. * Lab escapes do and did happen. As far as…

> As far as I know we simply do not have evidence if or if not gain of function research played a role. You can examine phylogenetic distance -- the degree of evolutionary drift that the initial virus had from others which are subject to natural (in-the-wild) evolution. COVID is way out there. And even then the closest "natural" virus had its genome published by the Wuhan lab long after the initial outbreak. The lack…

That's a reasonable argument. But it requires a very high level of understanding of (bat) corona-viruses in general with a majority of corona-viruses that exist having been sequenced etc.

From my (limited) understanding we only know about a fraction of corona-viruses out there, and hence there is great uncertainty in the phylogenetic modelling.

I haven't seen a credible write-up, if you can point me in the right direction, that would be appreciated.

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#42

Post by fragmede » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 4:41 PM UTC

seanwilson wrote: post #5

> Changes in the environment are driving displaced species of animals into new habitats, allowing them to mix with other species or potential hosts. Outside of reactionary comments about banning eating bats and banning "wet markets", I wish there was more serious discussion about how intensive animal farming in general could lead to another pandemic and what we're going to do about it. We're just going to continue as…

I don’t know where you’ve been, but bird flu and swine flu were already epidemics. Do we really have to wait for a cow-related disease to become an epidemic and finish up the trifecta before we’ll consider changing our behavior?

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#43

Post by mattbk1 » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 4:47 PM UTC

avl999 wrote: post #17

Maybe we should consider getting rid of esp problematic species of bats that are host to the most pathogens. I personally don't see much value in the species. They are like the mosquitos of the mammal world.

Bats eat mosquitos, which can carry other diseases. Whether yo u see any value in the species doesn't really have a bearing on protecting biodiversity.

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#44

Post by Pyramus » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 4:53 PM UTC

michaelrubin wrote: post #37

dvh wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bats are eaten in China. Half cooked bat could transmit the disease.

Do we have evidence that ingesting infected tissue can transmit the disease? I thought the disease spread via inhalation of viral particles?

Yes, simply placing the infected tissue in your mouth can infect you.

The exact role of fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is still unclear (in any case we do not eat one another) however we do know it is minor relative to respiratory droplets and aerosols.

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#45

Post by dominicjj » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 5:23 PM UTC

luxuryballs wrote: post #20

0x737368 wrote: post #8

How about it leaking from a research facility?

Yeah and it’s clear that they are making this stuff too: “Utilizing the SARS-CoV infectious clone, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse adapted SARS-CoV backbone” https://www.med.unc.edu/orfeome/files/2018/03/a-sars-like-cl... another interesting find: http://ge.usembassy.gov/fact-sheet-activity-at-the-wuhan-ins... The U.S. government has reason to…

>This raises questions about the credibility of WIV senior researcher Shi Zhengli

It's a straightforward although time-consuming exercise to trace through Shi's research from the last 15 years and see that she and her team have clearly been developing a bioweapon based on SARS and gain of function stuff pasted in from bat coronaviruses and elsewhere.

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#46

Post by sciprojguy » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 5:29 PM UTC

RedneckBob wrote: post #21

0x737368 wrote: post #8

How about it leaking from a research facility?

Apparently just a few unanswered questions bar the truth according to the study released by this Dr. Steven Quay. Highly doubt we'll get answers because of the nation that is sitting on the answers. "A Bayesian analysis concludes beyond a reasonable doubt that SARS-CoV-2 is not a natural zoonosis but instead is laboratory derived" - https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-study-by-dr-ste ... The first 12 pages o…

when you see the phrases "Bayesian analysis" and "concludes beyond a reasonable doubt" in the same sentence you can be pretty sure it's equine fecal matter being passed off as chocolate energy drink.

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#47

Post by claudiulodro » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 6:21 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #26

nradov wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've got to be joking. No one is going to vaccinate millions of wild bats and pangolins.

Why not?

For starters, there are 1.5mm bats under one bridge in Austin with 750k new babies there each year[1]. That alone would be quite the task!

[1] https://tpwd.texas.gov/huntwild/wild/species/bats/bat-watchi...

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#48

Post by dzonga » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 7:06 PM UTC

beautiful site. but this notion, that covid-19 came from bats is tricky. origin tracing a virus is tricky, specially one year too late. and the wuhan wet market didn't house bats. origins of covid-19 could be from anything whether the virus leaked from a lab, due to lax security policies. some other carrier animal or human we will never figure out etc.

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#49

Post by maxerickson » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 7:21 PM UTC

claudiulodro wrote: post #47

Robotbeat wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not?

For starters, there are 1.5mm bats under one bridge in Austin with 750k new babies there each year[1]. That alone would be quite the task! [1] https://tpwd.texas.gov/huntwild/wild/species/bats/bat-watchi...

Unless you find a way to give them cow pox (so to speak).

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#50

Post by LatteLazy » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 8:32 PM UTC

seanwilson wrote: post #5

> Changes in the environment are driving displaced species of animals into new habitats, allowing them to mix with other species or potential hosts. Outside of reactionary comments about banning eating bats and banning "wet markets", I wish there was more serious discussion about how intensive animal farming in general could lead to another pandemic and what we're going to do about it. We're just going to continue as…

Sorry, what is reactionary about banning wet markets? Not trying to be confrontational, I'm honestly asking. They're banned pretty much everywhere in the west with the exception of fish. There is plenty to object to about Western animal agriculture, but it hasn't created any new diseases on the scale of covid since it industrialised...