Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks • Hacker News Board

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#21

Post by RedneckBob » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 1:57 PM UTC

0x737368 wrote: post #8

How about it leaking from a research facility?

Apparently just a few unanswered questions bar the truth according to the study released by this Dr. Steven Quay. Highly doubt we'll get answers because of the nation that is sitting on the answers.

"A Bayesian analysis concludes beyond a reasonable doubt that SARS-CoV-2 is not a natural zoonosis but instead is laboratory derived"

- https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-study-by-dr-ste...

The first 12 pages of the PDF read like a sci-fy thriller. Link to the PDF (scroll down the page a bit):

- https://zenodo.org/record/4477081

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#22

Post by wycy » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 1:59 PM UTC

Threeve303 wrote: post #19

This article doesn't seem to state what it is about bats that leads them to be "disease reservoirs". EDIT: Removed speculation

I once read that there's something somewhat unique about the immune system of bats (very permissive?) that allows viruses to live in bats relatively undisturbed, allowing them a lot of time to mutate and thrive without affecting the bats much.

Edit: "Several studies have indicated that bats have unique defense mechanisms that allow them to be persistently or latently infected with viruses. Factors leading to an increase in the viral load of persistently infected bats would facilitate shedding of virus." Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6410205/

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#23

Post by nisa » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 2:05 PM UTC

RedneckBob wrote: post #18

nisa wrote: post #10

Alina Chan looks from a scientific perspektive at the lableak hypothesis and it's unresolved as far as I know: https://twitter.com/Ayjchan Bascially we don't know and probably won't know. The conflict of interest with the WHO mission is pretty clear. Beyond any politicization of the issue it's interesting to learn about the possibilities and risks in that research area.

Any credibility to the study released by this Dr. Steven Quay? He seems to have uncovered ample evidence, that in the case of COVID19, it was leaked from a lab. "A Bayesian analysis concludes beyond a reasonable doubt that SARS-CoV-2 is not a natural zoonosis but instead is laboratory derived" - https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-study-by-dr-ste... The first 12 pages of the PDF read like a sci-fy thriller.…

this looks like quack bullshit - I'd be very careful what to believe. Just look at page 6 that makes some arbitrary calculations and the bold headline. I'd skip that as evidence.

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#24

Post by tiahura » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 2:07 PM UTC

Is there a compelling reason to not nuke these massive bat colony caves?

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#25

Post by Robotbeat » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 2:07 PM UTC

RedneckBob wrote: post #18

nisa wrote: post #10

Alina Chan looks from a scientific perspektive at the lableak hypothesis and it's unresolved as far as I know: https://twitter.com/Ayjchan Bascially we don't know and probably won't know. The conflict of interest with the WHO mission is pretty clear. Beyond any politicization of the issue it's interesting to learn about the possibilities and risks in that research area.

Any credibility to the study released by this Dr. Steven Quay? He seems to have uncovered ample evidence, that in the case of COVID19, it was leaked from a lab. "A Bayesian analysis concludes beyond a reasonable doubt that SARS-CoV-2 is not a natural zoonosis but instead is laboratory derived" - https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-study-by-dr-ste... The first 12 pages of the PDF read like a sci-fy thriller.…

We discussed this in the past. While it is possible it escaped from the lab, his argument that it was not natural is not terribly compelling. That it reads like a sci-fi thriller is kind of a tell.

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#26

Post by Robotbeat » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 2:09 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #16

chasil wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is considerable suspicion that SARS-CoV-2 was enhanced by the Wuhan lab. The simple fact that the species carrying the closest relative of this epidemic was a thousand miles away from Wuhan and was not present at the wet markets in any capacity is sufficient to doubt the narrative. If we want to safeguard our species from zoonotic pandemics, instead of weaponizing them, then a vaccination effort would be better…

You've got to be joking. No one is going to vaccinate millions of wild bats and pangolins.

Why not?

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#27

Post by Robotbeat » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 2:11 PM UTC

avl999 wrote: post #17

Maybe we should consider getting rid of esp problematic species of bats that are host to the most pathogens. I personally don't see much value in the species. They are like the mosquitos of the mammal world.

Maybe vaccinate them instead.

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#28

Post by _Microft » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 2:15 PM UTC

jostmey wrote: post #11

> Scientist have long suspected that the rate of new infectious diseases could accelerate, especially in developing countries where human and animal interaction is increasing. I don't know any "Scientist" making this claim, and I work at a research University. Humans have always lived in direct contact with animals. We evolved from the Natural world living with animals in the forest, desert, and grassland. What has c…

Wikipedia has some pointers in the right direction in the article on Zoonosis if someone is curious. See section „Causes - Deforestation, biodiversity loss and environmental degradation“.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#29

Post by ozborn » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 2:24 PM UTC

RedneckBob wrote: post #18

nisa wrote: post #10

Alina Chan looks from a scientific perspektive at the lableak hypothesis and it's unresolved as far as I know: https://twitter.com/Ayjchan Bascially we don't know and probably won't know. The conflict of interest with the WHO mission is pretty clear. Beyond any politicization of the issue it's interesting to learn about the possibilities and risks in that research area.

Any credibility to the study released by this Dr. Steven Quay? He seems to have uncovered ample evidence, that in the case of COVID19, it was leaked from a lab. "A Bayesian analysis concludes beyond a reasonable doubt that SARS-CoV-2 is not a natural zoonosis but instead is laboratory derived" - https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-study-by-dr-ste... The first 12 pages of the PDF read like a sci-fy thriller.…

No credibility. In this poorly written paper the only interesting claim he cites is that some portion of SARS-Cov-2 looks like a "vector" sequence, but it's really just looking like a naturally occurring coronavirus and he confuses plasmid vs a vector. See: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2020.1... Just because the Chinese government lies a lot, it doesn't mean they are lying about this. There is no need.

Re: Bats and the Origin of Outbreaks

#30

Post by mckirk » Wed, Mar 10, 2021, 2:41 PM UTC

Pyramus wrote: post #13

chasil wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is considerable suspicion that SARS-CoV-2 was enhanced by the Wuhan lab. The simple fact that the species carrying the closest relative of this epidemic was a thousand miles away from Wuhan and was not present at the wet markets in any capacity is sufficient to doubt the narrative. If we want to safeguard our species from zoonotic pandemics, instead of weaponizing them, then a vaccination effort would be better…

"Considerable suspicion" is over-selling it in my opinion. The arguments I've heard go along the lines of 'the virus is surprisingly well adapted to humans'. This reasoning, however, is text-book survivor bias: Given we observe a pandemic, the probability for the virus to be well adapted is very high. What we do know is: * There is a highest safety level virus lab in Wuhan. * Lab escapes do and did happen. As far as…

It might be that people are taking issue with the survivorship-bias argument.

The important question here is: Given a virus that is as well adapted to humans as SARS-CoV-2, how likely is it that it emerged spontaneously (without a trace of any intermediate states, afaik) vs. how likely is it that it leaked from a lab that has high safety standards, but was probably producing viruses just like it.

It is indeed not surprising that the virus is well adapted to humans, seeing as we are experiencing a pandemic, but that is disconnected from wondering how it got to be so.