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Hertz, the original meme stock, is turning out to be worthless

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221–230 of 326 posts

Re: Hertz, the original meme stock, is turning out to be worthless

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Now you're in a position where you sold $5 Billion worth of shares on a company that (by all fair evaluations) is only worth $1 Billion after the capital raise. That's entirely reasonable if you think that by keeping the company alive you can build it back up until the point that it's worth more than $5B. This is indeed what every CEO thinks -- that they can make the company worth more next year than it's worth thi…

Hertz agreed to bankruptcy, so that they don't have to pay all of their debts anymore. That's... literally what's going on. As part of the bankruptcy proceedings, shareholders usually get wiped out. They wouldn't have pushed this button unless they believed that their bonds were hopelessly unpayable.

Filing bankruptcy is not an automatic thing. Should the company, during the course of the bankruptcy, somehow manage to bounce back and obtain enough capital to remain solvent, the court may dismiss the bankruptcy since the company no longer needs legal protection to restructure its debt or gracefully liquidate its holdings.

In addition to the court finding that a bankruptcy is no longer appropriate, either the debtor or the creditor can petition the court to dismiss a bankruptcy. This is not entirely uncommon, even when a company might have more liabilities than assets, when creditors believe their interests are harmed more by bankruptcy than a less drastic measure. This avoids companies declaring bankruptcy out of convenience rather than necessity. Shareholders are themselves creditors, and so they too could petition the court to dismiss a bankruptcy under such circumstances.

Finally, while companies (mostly) won't enter bankruptcy if they see other options, bankruptcies do not automatically wipe out shareholders, though that is probably the more common outcome. It is possible however to retain your shares, which would usually be exchanged (possibly at a discount) for shares in the newly constituted company post-bankruptcy.

Re: Hertz, the original meme stock, is turning out to be worthless

#222
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you read some of the posts on WSB a huge number of people just really have no clue about capital markets, investing, or basic business sense. I don't know how many times I saw people claiming GME would go to $1000 because the new CEO has a brilliant new scheme to turn the company around by going digital! Why "going digital" in 2021 means your company is worth 100X what it was a few months ago I'll never quite unde…

> Why "going digital" in 2021 means your company is worth 100X what it was a few months ago I'll never quite understand. Understand it or not, it happened. Going from $3 to $300 in under a year. Just because some people stated seemingly silly reasons for their predictions doesn't mean everyone betting on it is stupid. They may be trying to encourage others, have an intuition, hope to detect the peak and quickly sell,…

The market cap multiplied 100X, but whether the company is actually worth 100X is a different question.

Re: Hertz, the original meme stock, is turning out to be worthless

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many would suggest that such an action you propose is fundamentally immoral. Lets say a hypothetical company is overall $-4 Billion in debt (total assets - liabilities). You successfully raise $5 Billion from some means. Now you're in a position where you sold $5 Billion worth of shares on a company that (by all fair evaluations) is only worth $1 Billion after the capital raise.

The people buying the shares are making the "true" valuation of the company, being the ones buying it.

People buying shares were acting on what they believed to be the true valuation. A big difference. Imagine two people are "long" on some stock. Person A decides to sell; They believe the true valuation is lower. Person B decided to buy more; They believe the true valuation is higher. One of them is wrong.

In this case, the buyers of Hertz stock were most likely wrong, although things are not yet finalized and another comment here notes that alternate plans are being proposed that would not wipe out share holders.

Re: Hertz, the original meme stock, is turning out to be worthless

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investing in any stock is gambling, plain and simple. The only difference is your risk tolerance. Remember when it was impossible for real estate investments to lose money 15 years ago?

Gambling is when the house has an edge, and you will statistically lose in the long run. Investing is when you have the edge.

Would you consider placing your life savings on 100 1:3 payout coin flips investing?

Re: Hertz, the original meme stock, is turning out to be worthless

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hertz agreed to bankruptcy, so that they don't have to pay all of their debts anymore. That's... literally what's going on. As part of the bankruptcy proceedings, shareholders usually get wiped out. They wouldn't have pushed this button unless they believed that their bonds were hopelessly unpayable.

Filing bankruptcy is not an automatic thing. Should the company, during the course of the bankruptcy, somehow manage to bounce back and obtain enough capital to remain solvent, the court may dismiss the bankruptcy since the company no longer needs legal protection to restructure its debt or gracefully liquidate its holdings. In addition to the court finding that a bankruptcy is no longer appropriate, either the debto…

Or... Hertz can organize Chapter 11 bankruptcy, wipe out large portions of its debt, and then bounce back.

Bankruptcy protects the company and allows a company to come back stronger. That's the ultimate issue: with debts this large, it makes sense for Hertz to give up on its debt rather than try to pay it off.

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Its not like Chapter 11 is a death-knell for a company. GM went Chapter 11 years ago, and came back much stronger in the past decade. Bankruptcy protects the company, while (usually) wiping out the shareholders... and bondholders only getting a fraction of their promised payments back.

That's the deal: investors get screwed, but the company survives. A bankruptcy court helps decide if the case truly is as terrible as they are pleading.

But ultimately: that's why Hertz's board voluntarily entered Bankruptcy Protection last year. Its to Hertz's advantage to declare bankruptcy.

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If you have a comeback plan for Hertz, it will be an even stronger comeback plan if you wiped out a huge portion of debt. It just makes sense.

Re: Hertz, the original meme stock, is turning out to be worthless

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are many things I dislike about Tesla. But I genuinely believe they are responsible for bringing EVs to market ~3 years before it would have happened without them. This feels vaguely ahistorical. The best-selling electric car platform in Europe today is the Renault Z-E platform (or at least it was; VW may have overtaken by now). That platform was announced in 2009 or so, with the first cars in 2011, and the f…

I'm a Tesla skeptic like parent but I believe parent is right: Tesla has advanced the EV market by maybe 3-5 years. You are correct about timings. What you are missing is 1) Adoption and perception. The public and mainstream media love 'EV Jesus' and his perceived dedication to 'the mission'. 2) User experience, in particular charging. Tesla still today has the biggest charger network and charging is a crucial remedy…

Honestly if either the brand or charging were as big a deal as all that, I'd expect them to be doing better in Europe. The US seems to be the only remaining territory where they're the market leader, and they may be a bit stickier there, but it's not clear that EU sales of, say, the Zoe or id3 would be any different in the parallel universe where Tesla never existed. Those sell because they've hit a price/range point, and that's more due to the relentless slow progress of battery technology than anything else.

Not to say they're not a significant electric car manufacturer, but "coming third in the biggest western market, behind Renault, who apparently still exist" is not a great argument for them being either a market leader or having a particularly sticky brand.

Re: Hertz, the original meme stock, is turning out to be worthless

#227
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you read some of the posts on WSB a huge number of people just really have no clue about capital markets, investing, or basic business sense. I don't know how many times I saw people claiming GME would go to $1000 because the new CEO has a brilliant new scheme to turn the company around by going digital! Why "going digital" in 2021 means your company is worth 100X what it was a few months ago I'll never quite unde…

Would you say those same people who just learned the phrase “short” or “short squeeze” are likely the same kind of people going to the casino and thinking they can successfully count cards? As mentioned elsewhere in here, it’s ultimately gambling. It’s putting money up, exposing it to risk that could completely wipe you out. If someone doesn’t understand that about stock investing, I think they’re very similar to som…

Bit of a tangent, but: it’s absolutely possible to learn a relatively simple card-counting system and play with positive expected value in a casino. You can easily run simulations to prove this.

Re: Hertz, the original meme stock, is turning out to be worthless

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I don't understand is that Hertz specifically wanted to sell an amount of shares that wouldn't raise enough money to pay off their debts. Their prospectus noted that shares sold would automatically become worthless unless their debt was paid off , which they didn't anticipate. But why not try? What if they sold so much stock that the bondholders could just be paid back? Why do the stock sale specifically plannin…

Many would suggest that such an action you propose is fundamentally immoral. Lets say a hypothetical company is overall $-4 Billion in debt (total assets - liabilities). You successfully raise $5 Billion from some means. Now you're in a position where you sold $5 Billion worth of shares on a company that (by all fair evaluations) is only worth $1 Billion after the capital raise.

Plenty of companies are valued at more than 5x their assets. Tesla for example is valued at more than 10x their assets. Besides, immorality doesn't really enter into it. The SEC requires public filings to ensure investors can make informed decisions. The rest is up to the investor who presumably would be betting that the company's prospects will increase, at least partly as a result of avoiding bankruptcy an having enough cash on hand to buy some breathing room and recover. Of course, they may be wrong. But immorality only enters into it if there is deliberate deception.

Further, in the case of a company doing what you describe, they would in fact be ensuring their current shareholders, pre-$5b stock sale, don't lose all of their money.

Re: Hertz, the original meme stock, is turning out to be worthless

#229
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We largely did in the US. There are exceptions, but generally it’s illegal to bet on the winner of a collage football game etc. https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/19740480/the-united-st... However, that’s slowly been changing over time.

> We largely did in the US. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/12/americans-spend-over-1000-do...

Yea, there is a reason gambling was originally banned and we get to learn that lesson all over again.

Re: Hertz, the original meme stock, is turning out to be worthless

#230

It's not worth discussing BTC, TSLA, GME, or HTZ. That is missing the forest for the trees. The degradation of even the appearance of an orderly market is the story. The money movement (volume of excess trades X magnitude of price change) seems out of reach of unleveraged retail. Faith in private and public institutions is justifiably poor, but also under organized attack. This is going to end badly for everyone, exc…

What’s happening is that the masses now have access to do the same absurd gambling that the “experts” have been doing for a century. The only way out is to remove the gambling functions from the market.

But then that would require that traders go get actual jobs, and produce actual value. I think these people would rather see the US burn than do that.

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