Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes • Hacker News Board

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#121

Post by pnutjam » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 2:07 PM UTC

javagram wrote: post #119

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better". I disagree, given how standards for getting a driver's license are different between countries and getting more and more tighter. In the US, unless things are different from TV, you can get trained by someone else with a license in a regular car and do an exam. Over here, you…

> In the US, unless things are different from TV, you can get trained by someone else with a license in a regular car and do an exam. Be cautious about believing TV drama is realistic. States I’m familiar with require 30 hours of licensed classroom instruction and 6 hours of licensed driving instruction beyond the training via a parent or other adult. In any case, no amount of training seems to stop people from using…

I'm teaching my kids, insurance companies stopped giving any discount for drivers ed. My daughters all passed the exam to get a learning license on the first try. I made them read the dmv book, on the state website. I also quizzed them on various scenarios. They have friends who took classes and still failed the exam multiple times.

IMHO, the problem has more to do with the entitlement around driving. People don't view it as a privilege.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#122

Post by enko123 » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 2:09 PM UTC

pas wrote: post #105

T-hawk wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That last point isn't a "you could argue" or "most cases", it's literally the law. Rear-ending is always the rear car's fault and it's always their responsibility to leave enough space and time to react and stop safely. If the lead car braked when there was no reason or danger, that driver might also be cited for recklessness or some such, but a rear-end collision is always an error by the rear driver.

No, it's more complicated than that. If someone cuts in front of you and you end up rear-ending them, it's not your fault. See all the fucking break-check idiots. (And the videos when someone does it to a car, which then turns out to be a cop.) That said, yes, in theory you have to be alert, as the car in front of you can at any moment do something unexpected. (Eg. the driver falls asleep and crashes into the barrier…

There's also an insurance scam where the driver slams on the brakes for no reason on the highway hoping you rear-end them literally was 50mph to 0. I barely dodged that one, since I allow 3-lanes of stopping distance, but I still needed to swerve toward the median, and the guy behind me hit me, and behind him hit him and behind him hit him.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#123

Post by burlesona » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 2:18 PM UTC

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #98

freddie_mercury wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any solution that relies on "let's just make humans beings better" is basically doomed to failure and little more than hand wringing and virtue signalling. Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better".

> Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better". I disagree, given how standards for getting a driver's license are different between countries and getting more and more tighter. In the US, unless things are different from TV, you can get trained by someone else with a license in a regular car and do an exam. Over here, you…

Please stop thinking that one can know how “the states” are from a distance. The US is quite large and diverse. I’ve lived in four states and they were each significantly different in terms of legal structures, policies, culture, daily life etc. As an American I would rarely claim to know how things are in “the states.” I only know the parts I’ve lived in, or the few things that are actually federal in nature.

The US may be more homogeneous than Europe given its shorter history and mostly common language, but it’s far from some uniform block that you can summarize from what you saw on TV or a tourist visit to New York.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#124

Post by jtbayly » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 2:19 PM UTC

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #98

freddie_mercury wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any solution that relies on "let's just make humans beings better" is basically doomed to failure and little more than hand wringing and virtue signalling. Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better".

> Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better". I disagree, given how standards for getting a driver's license are different between countries and getting more and more tighter. In the US, unless things are different from TV, you can get trained by someone else with a license in a regular car and do an exam. Over here, you…

Yay. Let’s make driving a perk of being rich.

All you poor schmucks can hoof it.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#125

Post by bluntfang » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 2:29 PM UTC

nsomaru wrote: post #43

Animats wrote: post #18

You can read the California DMV's set of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] Almost all the Waymo reports are "vehicle was entering intersection, detected cross traffic, stopped, was rear-ended by human driver". There's one Waymo report where someone ran a stop sign and hit them. The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all hi…

No thanks. I drive an aged car and drove a friends recent Mercedes long distance. The thing has a feature where it breaks where it thinks it’s good to break, often just when I need to accelerate to get out of a tight spot. I need the vehicle to respond to my inputs directly, not mix my inputs with what it thinks must be done. It’s extremely unpredictable and it feels like I’m not in control of the car.

Have you considered reflecting on your driving behavior? I'm personally rarely (i honestly don't remember when I've had to do this, but let's say less than once a year) had to accelerate quickly to get out of a tight spot.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#126

Post by derwiki » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 2:31 PM UTC

jtbayly wrote: post #124

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better". I disagree, given how standards for getting a driver's license are different between countries and getting more and more tighter. In the US, unless things are different from TV, you can get trained by someone else with a license in a regular car and do an exam. Over here, you…

Yay. Let’s make driving a perk of being rich. All you poor schmucks can hoof it.

To a large extent, car ownership is already a perk of being “rich.” Looks how many people have trouble getting to voting locations or to vaccination sites.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#127

Post by _fat_santa » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 2:32 PM UTC

mindvirus wrote: post #17

This is really cool. I suspect that when we have self driving cars, it's going to take off very quickly due to insurance. In particular, if you are in a non self driving car and in an accident with a self driving one, it'll be hard to not be shown as at fault. So insurance I would guess go up based on the percentage of self driving cars, and likely be really cheap for self driving cars. I wonder if there's a period t…

I have two conflicting thoughts on self-driving cars.

* On the one hand I totally agree with you, the majority of people don't care about driving and just want to get from Point A to Point B. Given the opportunity to sit back and watch Netflix vs fighting traffic and having lower insurance premiums I think will make self-driving cars a tempting combination.

* On the other hand though, outside densely populated places where there is less traffic and more unpredictable terrain, self-driving cars are going to have an extremely uphill battle. First with the lack of extreme traffic, there isn't much of a case for needing for a car to drive itself.

Then there's the issue of trust. Say you're out in rural Idaho, nearest anything is 50+ miles away. Out there all those cool tech gizmos and self driving tech is a massive liability. If you're out in the boonies and your car looses connection and refuses to drive what do you do? What about if some wired internal computer system breaks? This is why cars like the Toyota 4Runner and Tacoma are so so popular, they are old school simple cars but more importantly, you can take the thing out the middle of nowhere and trust that you won't get stranded by "cutting edge technology"

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#128

Post by zip1234 » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 2:34 PM UTC

SkyPuncher wrote: post #34

spike021 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. Most times…

> I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. I know everyone considers themselves to be a good driver. I consider myself to be a relatively good driver and generally keep very conservative follow distances (no reason to be on someones bumper). Even when paying attention, I've been in situations where I've had to apply the brakes harder than I should have to avoid a rear end. Sometimes yo…

The reality is that average human reaction times at speed are not very good and many people do not care to pay much attention or even follow the rules of the road. Most roads are also not designed for safety. They are usually designed for speed/throughput.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#129

Post by jaywalk » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 2:35 PM UTC

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #98

freddie_mercury wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any solution that relies on "let's just make humans beings better" is basically doomed to failure and little more than hand wringing and virtue signalling. Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better".

> Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better". I disagree, given how standards for getting a driver's license are different between countries and getting more and more tighter. In the US, unless things are different from TV, you can get trained by someone else with a license in a regular car and do an exam. Over here, you…

The requirements in my US state are very similar to yours, except the amount of time you need to spend with a licensed instructor in an adapted car is fixed (don't remember the number). But after that, and before you can take your practical exam, you're required to spend a significant (fixed minimum) amount of time driving with a parent or guardian in the passenger seat.

And the cost is far less than the nearly $3000 you paid.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#130

Post by MisterTea » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 2:35 PM UTC

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #98

freddie_mercury wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any solution that relies on "let's just make humans beings better" is basically doomed to failure and little more than hand wringing and virtue signalling. Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better".

> Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better". I disagree, given how standards for getting a driver's license are different between countries and getting more and more tighter. In the US, unless things are different from TV, you can get trained by someone else with a license in a regular car and do an exam. Over here, you…

>In the US, unless things are different from TV, you can get trained by someone else with a license in a regular car and do an exam.

What is this TV source you speak of? 11 o-clock news? Seinfeld?

> Over here, you need a driving instructor in an adapted car (dual controls),

Same.

> ...and depending on how well you pick it up, spend anywhere between 15 and 50 (or sometimes more) hours practicing driving and traffic rules.

Yup. We do that too.

> There's a written / theoretical exam you have to study for (traffic rules), then a practical exam with an examiner.

Again, we do that as well.

> In my case, it cost me about €2500 in lessons to get my driver's license. Then I spent another €1500 or so on top of that to get my motorcycle driver's license, where there's even more emphasis on personal safety and safe driving.

That is a lot of money.

> With that in mind, I'm confident in my claim that Dutch drivers are better than American ones.

The ones on TV or in your imagination?