Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes • Hacker News Board

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#91

Post by nitwit005 » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 8:56 AM UTC

spike021 wrote: post #20

Animats wrote: post #18

You can read the California DMV's set of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] Almost all the Waymo reports are "vehicle was entering intersection, detected cross traffic, stopped, was rear-ended by human driver". There's one Waymo report where someone ran a stop sign and hit them. The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all hi…

>The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. Most times…

> I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant.

You'd have to give people whole new brains.

My grandmother had a condition where her eyes forced shut, completely out of her control. She insisted she could still drive without issue. She ignored multiple friends and family telling her she'd murder someone.

Last Saturday I had to dodge out of the way of a car (fortunately moving very slowly). The woman driving was staring in my direction at me as I waved my arms. That she nearly ran me over eventually clicked and she rolled down her window to appoligize.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#92

Post by elric » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 9:28 AM UTC

Another thing that would avoid fatal crashes is reducing the number of cars on the roads, making them smaller and making them slower. That's a lot cheaper than making them more complex.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#93

Post by dataduck » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 9:31 AM UTC

CobrastanJorji wrote: post #65

spike021 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. Most times…

Please tell me more about this "proper education of being observant." Do you believe such a thing exists? Does it reliably make people consistently observant? Would it work on me? I would pay a lot of money for such a thing.

I understand this was supposed to be sarcastic but I've been informally working on this for years. I have a technique which seems to work wonders with students but I haven't the resources to test it scientifically, so do with this information as you will.

The technique is simple: ritually venerate the thing you wish to be more observant of, and never denigrate its value. So in the case of traffic stopping, have a thing that you do whenever you notice it (e.g. tap your braking foot), even while you're not driving, and never ever look at your phone whilst driving. Another way of thinking about it (if you don't like the word ritual), is as a variant of the Alexander technique: whenever you notice that thing, consciously note that you noticed it, and emotionally reward yourself for doing so.

I'm not sure where this fits on the scale of "outrageous quackery" to "blindingly obvious" but it seems to be news, and also useful, to fifteen year olds.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#94

Post by Laarlf » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 9:46 AM UTC

bumbada wrote: post #76

They can use it to start fixing the roads, not the cars. Just look at the cross intersection they use as an example, typical of the US. The ROAD is the death trap there. People are crossing each other at high speed, this is the BUG, and should be fixed. The proper solution is putting there a roundabout, and you will have instantly less fatal accidents. The US was the first to use roundabouts, but those early designs…

I live in Germany. We have some roundabouts. And let me tell you: they rarely work better than red lights. Traffic flow requires more than roundabouts. They require proper planning, green waves, proper sizing and still different lanes for roundabouts. Don’t forget about semis either. Just throwing roundabouts somewhere won’t solve anything. I’ve seen that often enough. That will just create more traffic jams.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#95

Post by Laarlf » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 10:04 AM UTC

elric wrote: post #92

Another thing that would avoid fatal crashes is reducing the number of cars on the roads, making them smaller and making them slower. That's a lot cheaper than making them more complex.

Not leaving your house would solve a lot of things. Why don’t people do that? Anyway, slowing down traffic is not the answer. Driving should either be more automated or more engaging so drivers stop using their phones. 2 hours of driving 20 mph in a straight line will be boring enough to create more accidents.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#96

Post by Cthulhu_ » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 10:06 AM UTC

spike021 wrote: post #20

Animats wrote: post #18

You can read the California DMV's set of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] Almost all the Waymo reports are "vehicle was entering intersection, detected cross traffic, stopped, was rear-ended by human driver". There's one Waymo report where someone ran a stop sign and hit them. The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all hi…

>The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. Most times…

While I agree, people are unpredictable. Second, even when they are paying attention they may still react too slowly. Even when there's a competent driver at the wheel paying attention, crash prevention systems can still outperform them.

Anyway, I don't think the goal is to prevent accidents entirely; that would be ideal, but it'll be really hard. More important is to prevent injury and death. A car is just hardware, that's what insurance is for in the end. In that regard, even without automation, cars have gotten safer over the decades with roll cages and airbags everywhere.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#97

Post by nsomaru » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 10:07 AM UTC

rkagerer wrote: post #56

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If studies show that automatic emergency braking cuts down on deaths overall, I think it's a worthwhile tradeoff -- I'd even be happy to have it be mandatory/non-disableable. It sounds like the car you were driving had some kind of defective implementation of automatic emergency braking. That doesn't invalidate the good that these types of systems do when implemented properly. Also I'm wondering what kind of situatio…

Also someone barreling toward you from the side when you're in an intersection. I'm not sure how far down perpendicular roads Waymo cars can see, but I'd like to see them solve this weak spot to eliminate the rear-enders.

This is a good example. In this situation you’d actually prefer to lightly rear end the car in front of you and deal with those consequences than possibly lose your life because someone asleep at the wheel hit you from the side.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#98

Post by Cthulhu_ » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 10:10 AM UTC

freddie_mercury wrote: post #45

spike021 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. I really wish we could just enforce proper education of being observant. Most times…

Any solution that relies on "let's just make humans beings better" is basically doomed to failure and little more than hand wringing and virtue signalling. Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better".

> Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better".

I disagree, given how standards for getting a driver's license are different between countries and getting more and more tighter.

In the US, unless things are different from TV, you can get trained by someone else with a license in a regular car and do an exam.

Over here, you need a driving instructor in an adapted car (dual controls), and depending on how well you pick it up, spend anywhere between 15 and 50 (or sometimes more) hours practicing driving and traffic rules. There's a written / theoretical exam you have to study for (traffic rules), then a practical exam with an examiner.

In my case, it cost me about €2500 in lessons to get my driver's license. Then I spent another €1500 or so on top of that to get my motorcycle driver's license, where there's even more emphasis on personal safety and safe driving.

With that in mind, I'm confident in my claim that Dutch drivers are better than American ones.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#99

Post by maccard » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 10:21 AM UTC

xiphias2 wrote: post #62

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If studies show that automatic emergency braking cuts down on deaths overall, I think it's a worthwhile tradeoff -- I'd even be happy to have it be mandatory/non-disableable. It sounds like the car you were driving had some kind of defective implementation of automatic emergency braking. That doesn't invalidate the good that these types of systems do when implemented properly. Also I'm wondering what kind of situatio…

> Even in the case of passing on a two lane road (a situation where I doubt emergency braking would trigger erroneously), you've already made a mistake if a rapid acceleration is needed to avoid a dangerous scenario. Are you talking about a road with each lane in one direction? Outside US that is the most common way to travel between cities. It is easy to say that acceleration shouldn't be needed, but that's life rig…

> When somebody starts overtaking, the better acceleration he has, the safer he can do the maneuver.

If you overtake someone while driving in an oncoming lane, and cut it close enough that the emergency braking of a modern car cuts in, you didn't have enough room to perform the maneouver in the first place. Even safer than performing the dangerous maneouver is not performing it in the first place.

This is coming from someone who regularly drives a stretch 150 mile long road with many parts of the road where dangerous overtaking maneouvers are the only way to overtake, and you're sharing the road with articulated vehicles speed limited to 10mph lower than you on steep hills. The choic is always to _not_ make the maneouver.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#100

Post by maccard » Tue, Mar 09, 2021, 10:23 AM UTC

nsomaru wrote: post #54

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If studies show that automatic emergency braking cuts down on deaths overall, I think it's a worthwhile tradeoff -- I'd even be happy to have it be mandatory/non-disableable. It sounds like the car you were driving had some kind of defective implementation of automatic emergency braking. That doesn't invalidate the good that these types of systems do when implemented properly. Also I'm wondering what kind of situatio…

I’m getting downvoted for voicing my opinion on a darling HN technology, is that it? Next time I’ll just keep my mouth shut (as I usually do because of the downvote brigade). This time, I’ll bite. I guess you guys have never driven in Africa. Or Asia. Braking is not always the best course of action is actually dangerous in some situations. Like if I can see someone screaming up behind me in the fast lane, there’s a c…

> Like if I can see someone screaming up behind me in the fast lane, there’s a car next to me that means I can’t move out of the way, so I need to accelerate to get past that car and move out of the way.

Those vehicles exist outside of the countries you mentioned, and the correct thing to do is to keep going and move out of the way when it's safe. WHat if the car on the inside sees the other car too and accelerates to give you room to drop behind him? now you've made the situation worse for 3 people.