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Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

antipope.org

11–20 of 187 posts

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#11
There's two levels of magic wand here.

The first is some breakthrough in physics that makes interstellar travel feasible. Not likely, but a staple of sci-fi.

The second is a series of improvements in nanotechnology making interplanetary colonies feasible (though less necessary).

And the looming confounding factor is that a "singularity" event might make all of this moot.

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#13
I agree that humans will likely never leave the solar system. However, I think it's very possible -- even likely -- that human intelligence will.

One interesting thing about sending some future human AI into space is that it could in theory 'power down' higher functions for hundreds or thousands of years as it travels to its destination. Upon reawakening, it would be in a new star system, with the cumulation of human knowledge in memory and enough tech to reproduce and start anew.

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#14
I agree with this pretty well, in that it's likely that flesh-and-blood humans will never physically travel to other planets en masse without some fundamental discoveries in physics. You'll note, though, that he explicitly disregards both starwisps and strong AI, and there's a reason for that: putting human-descended AI out into the universe is a much, much more feasible endeavor, and one that I personally believe we'll eventually accomplish.

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#15
post #6

That's a good, grounded assessment of the scale of the problem. I too believe that the human colonization of space, even near-space (ie within the orbit of the Moon) is a long way off. The energy costs are simply too high and resources too cheap on the Earth to make it viable (in spite of typical SF fodder of asteroid mining). This is a problem because with 6.5 billion people we're using up resources. Fast. Anyway, I…

Black holes spaceships are the ticket with our current understanding of physics. They can carry a large and heavy cargo in ship form or can push small planets slowly in a desired direction. The travel times for black hole ships are reasonable too, about six years to Proxima Centauri. It beats the other sci-fi concepts like fusion, Orion, anti matter and solar sails.

Funny how solar sails seem like the easier option to build, but for interstellar travel you need enormous lasers near the home star to push the sail as it gets further away. Might as well build black holes with the lasers and solar collectors.

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#16
post #8
post #5

"The future extinction of the human species cannot affect you if you are already dead": I thought one of the implications of evolution was that we have a vested interest in protecting our genes, rather than acting solely on individual-level self-interest. Edit: What on earth would cause you to downvote this? Edit2: Thanks. I would still appreciate a comment if I'm 'doing it wrong.'

+1. Indeed, the entire post seems to glibly sidestep the question of what rational humans would do. The author implies that we only have a rational interest in what happens during our lifespan. But many of us, through childbearing or other means, try to leave something of value behind us. Irrational? Perhaps. But there's no reason pure hedonism should be any less irrational.

It also sidesteps the issue of people who plan/want to live indefinitely through advances in biotech, cryonics, mind uploading, etc. At the risk of distorting 'rational', if one personally cares at all about the future of humanity rather than just oneself in the present and immediate future it's easy to see why a course of action that helps humanity survive rather than hinders is a better, 'rational' course given that person's beliefs. Insert "moral dilemma" of the same flavor as being asked a preference on dying now, with everyone else living on, or living 5 more years then everyone including you dies.

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#17
I guess i have heard this kind of argument before. In the movie book "Around the world in 80 days". Its not possible or you can't do travel all around the globe in 80 days. Still someone did it, sooner or later someone will do it, and see it takes us nearly 24 hours to make a complete rotation around the earth. Some day we will even reach to Proxima Cetauri.

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#18

"That's the same as the yield of the entire US Minuteman III ICBM force." So you're saying there's a chance!

That's what I thought, too. I think the energy examples were supposed to scare me, and if he'd said something like total output of the sun, ever, they would have. But total power output of current civilization for five days garnered more of a "sounds doable" response from me.

Re: Why we are unlikely to ever leave the solar system.

#19
post #4

What was that limit on data transmission via copper again? 300baud? Or was it 1400? Nice the way science always ends for idiots like this...

The limits he talks about are fundamental. We would have to be very wrong about much of physics to invalidate his arguments.
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